Expectations Formation and Forecasting of Vehicle Demand: An Empirical Study of the Vehicle Quota Auctions in Singapore
This paper studies the expectations formation and forecasting of vehicle demand in Singapore under the vehicle quota system. Under the system, a car buyer must first bid for a vehicle license in monthly auctions in order to purchase a new car. We construct an econometric model to test the hypothesis that past bid distributions of the license auctions contain information that car buyers can use to update their expectations about the intensity of market demand, forecast the license premiums and formulate their bidding strategies in future auctions. Our empirical analysis indicates that past bid distributions have a good degree of predictive power for the license premiums.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 65-6828 0832
Fax: 65-6828 0833
Web page: http://www.economics.smu.edu.sg/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chu, Singfat, 2002. "Auctioning rights to vehicle ownership: Singapore's experience with sealed-bid tenders," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 555-561, July.
- Klemperer, Paul, 1999.
"Auction Theory: a Guide to the Literature,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2163, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Paul Klemperer, 1999. "Auction Theory: A Guide to the Literature," Microeconomics 9903002, EconWPA.
- Paul Klemperer, 1999. "Auction Theory: A Guide to the Literature," Economics Series Working Papers 1999-W12, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Klemperer, P., 1999. "Auction Theory: a Guide to the Literature," Economics Papers 1999-w12, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Paul Milgrom & Robert J. Weber, 1981.
"A Theory of Auctions and Competitive Bidding,"
447R, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Singfat, Chu-Chun-Lin, 1998. "Bidding Efficiencies for Rights to Car Ownership in Singapore," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 297-306, April.
- Ling Hui Tan, 2001.
"Rationing Rules and Outcomes; The Experience of Singapore's Vehicle Quota System,"
IMF Working Papers
01/136, International Monetary Fund.
- Ling Hui Tan, 2003. "Rationing Rules and Outcomes: The Experience of Singapore's Vehicle Quota System," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(3), pages 5.
- Chin, Anthony & Smith, Peter, 1997. "Automobile ownership and government policy: The economics of Singapore's vehicle quota scheme," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 129-140, March.
- Koh, Winston T. H., 2003. "Control of vehicle ownership and market competition: theory and Singapore's experience with the vehicle quota system," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 749-770, November.
- Phang, Sock-Yong, 1993. "Singapore's motor vehicle policy: Review of recent changes and a suggested alternative," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 329-336, July.
- Kenneth Hendricks & Harry J. Paarsch, 1995.
"A Survey of Recent Empirical Work Concerning Auctions,"
Canadian Journal of Economics,
Canadian Economics Association, vol. 28(2), pages 403-26, May.
- Hendricks, K. & Paarsch, H.J., 1993. "A Survey of Recent Empirical Work Concerning Auctions," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 9309, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
- Levin, Dan & Kagel, John H & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1996. "Revenue Effects and Information Processing in English Common Value Auctions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 442-60, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:siu:wpaper:02-2004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (QL THor)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.