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Expectations formation and forecasting of vehicle demand: an empirical study of the vehicle quota auctions in Singapore

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  • Chu, Sing-Fat
  • Koh, Winston T. H.
  • Tse, Yiu Kuen

Abstract

This paper studies expectations formation and forecasting of vehicle demand in Singapore under the vehicle quota system. Under the system, a car buyer must first bid for a vehicle license in monthly auctions in order to purchase a new car. We construct an econometric model to test the hypothesis that past bid distributions of the license auctions contain information that car buyers can use to update their expectations about the intensity of market demand, forecast license premiums and formulate their bidding strategies in future auctions. Our empirical analysis indicates that past bid distributions have a good degree of predictive power for the vehicle license premiums.

Suggested Citation

  • Chu, Sing-Fat & Koh, Winston T. H. & Tse, Yiu Kuen, 2004. "Expectations formation and forecasting of vehicle demand: an empirical study of the vehicle quota auctions in Singapore," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 367-381, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:38:y:2004:i:5:p:367-381
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ling Hui Tan, 2003. "Rationing Rules and Outcomes: The Experience of Singapore's Vehicle Quota System," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(3), pages 1-5.
    2. Chu, Singfat, 2002. "Auctioning rights to vehicle ownership: Singapore's experience with sealed-bid tenders," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 555-561, July.
    3. Levin, Dan & Kagel, John H & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1996. "Revenue Effects and Information Processing in English Common Value Auctions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 442-460, June.
    4. Klemperer, Paul, 1999. " Auction Theory: A Guide to the Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 227-286, July.
    5. Kenneth Hendricks & Harry J. Paarsch, 1995. "A Survey of Recent Empirical Work Concerning Auctions," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 28(2), pages 403-426, May.
    6. Koh, Winston T. H., 2003. "Control of vehicle ownership and market competition: theory and Singapore's experience with the vehicle quota system," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 749-770, November.
    7. Phang, Sock-Yong, 1993. "Singapore's motor vehicle policy: Review of recent changes and a suggested alternative," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 329-336, July.
    8. Milgrom, Paul R & Weber, Robert J, 1982. "A Theory of Auctions and Competitive Bidding," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1089-1122, September.
    9. Singfat, Chu-Chun-Lin, 1998. "Bidding Efficiencies for Rights to Car Ownership in Singapore," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 297-306, April.
    10. Chin, Anthony & Smith, Peter, 1997. "Automobile ownership and government policy: The economics of Singapore's vehicle quota scheme," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 129-140, March.
    11. Klemperer, Paul, 1999. " Auction Theory: A Guide to the Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 227-86, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chu, Singfat, 2015. "Car restraint policies and mileage in Singapore," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 404-412.
    2. Singfat Chu, 2011. "Sealed v/s open bids for certificates of entitlement under the vehicle quota system in Singapore," Transportation, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 215-226, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions

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