Social Mobility, Protests, and Migration: Evidence from Latin American Countries

This paper investigates the relationship between intergenerational social mobility, migration aspirations, and participation in political demonstrations. Using individual-level data from the Latinobarómetro between 2002 and 2023, we show that individuals experiencing negative intergenerational educational mobility are more likely to express a desire to migrate and to participate into peaceful protests, whereas those with positive mobility exhibit the opposite pattern. Our analysis further suggests that the decision to migrate and to protest may be shaped by a common underlying decision process. Finally, we find that confidence in political institutions and positive economic expectations substantially mitigate expressions of social discontent in the form of migration aspirations and protest participation. Overall, the results indicate that unequal opportunities across generations are an important determinant of both migration intentions and political engagement.