IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/wdevel/v199y2026ics0305750x25003341.html

Social gaps, perceived inequality and protests

Author

Listed:
  • Bargain, Olivier
  • Jara, H. Xavier
  • Rivera, David

Abstract

Latent feelings of economic vulnerability and social stagnation may have catalyzed the unprecedented uprisings that shook Latin America and other parts of the world in 2018–2019. We document this process in the context of Chile, leveraging survey data on protest participation and its potential determinants. Specifically, we construct a “social gap” index, measuring the disconnect between objective and perceived social status. Our findings suggest that this status misperception predicts protest involvement beyond factors such as perceived living costs, the subjective value of public services, peer influence, redistributive views and political demands. Notably, the social gap operates independently of broader feelings of unfairness and anger toward inequalities in explaining protests.

Suggested Citation

  • Bargain, Olivier & Jara, H. Xavier & Rivera, David, 2026. "Social gaps, perceived inequality and protests," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:199:y:2026:i:c:s0305750x25003341
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107248
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X25003341
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107248?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dalton, Russell & Van Sickle, Alix & Weldon, Steven, 2010. "The Individual–Institutional Nexus of Protest Behaviour," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 51-73, January.
    2. Yann Algan & Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou & Evgenia Passari, 2017. "The European Trust Crisis and the Rise of Populism," Post-Print hal-02381560, HAL.
    3. Yann Algan & Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou & Evgenia Passari, 2017. "The European Trust Crisis and the Rise of Populism," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(2 (Fall)), pages 309-400.
    4. Yann Algan & Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou & Evgenia Passari, 2017. "The European Trust Crisis and the Rise of Populism," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(2 (Fall)), pages 309-400.
    5. AndrewE. Clark & Claudia Senik, 2010. "Who Compares to Whom? The Anatomy of Income Comparisons in Europe," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 573-594, May.
    6. Caroline T. Witte & Martijn J. Burger & Elena Ianchovichina, 2020. "Subjective Well‐Being and Peaceful Uprisings," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(1), pages 120-158, February.
    7. Tina Fransman & Marisa Fintel, 2024. "Relative Standing and Political Participation," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 174(1), pages 281-311, August.
    8. Thiemo Fetzer, 2019. "Did Austerity Cause Brexit?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(11), pages 3849-3886, November.
    9. Walter Bossert & Andrew E Clark & Conchita D’Ambrosio & Anthony Lepinteur, 2023. "Economic insecurity and political preferences," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(3), pages 802-825.
    10. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2i9jel1usb85nr2j7tejsaldfu is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Germán Reyes & Leonardo Gasparini, 2022. "Are fairness perceptions shaped by income inequality? evidence from Latin America," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(4), pages 893-913, December.
    12. Mariaflavia Harari & Eliana La Ferrara, 2018. "Conflict, Climate, and Cells: A Disaggregated Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 594-608, October.
    13. Patricia Justino & Bruno Martorano, 2016. "Inequality, Distributive Beliefs and Protests: A Recent Story from Latin America," Working Papers - Economics wp2016_06.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    14. Vladimir Gimpelson & Daniel Treisman, 2018. "Misperceiving inequality," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 27-54, March.
    15. Frederick Solt, 2015. "Economic Inequality and Nonviolent Protest," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1314-1327, November.
    16. Patricia Justino & Bruno Martorano, 2019. "Redistributive Preferences and Protests in Latin America," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 63(9), pages 2128-2154, October.
    17. Santi Budría & Ada Ferrer‐I‐Carbonell, 2019. "Life Satisfaction, Income Comparisons and Individual Traits," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 65(2), pages 337-357, June.
    18. Teresa Bago d'Uva & Eddy Van Doorslaer & Maarten Lindeboom & Owen O'Donnell, 2008. "Does reporting heterogeneity bias the measurement of health disparities?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 351-375, March.
    19. Dietmar Fehr & Johanna Mollerstrom & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2022. "Your Place in the World: Relative Income and Global Inequality," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 232-268, November.
    20. Alpaslan Akay & Gökhan Karabulut, 2020. "Personality and positionality-evidence from survey experiments with alternative goods," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(1), pages 123-156, March.
    21. Francesco Passarelli & Guido Tabellini, 2017. "Emotions and Political Unrest," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(3), pages 903-946.
    22. L. Guiso & H. Herrera & M. Morelli & T. Sonno, 2024. "Economic insecurity and the demand for populism in Europe," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(362), pages 588-620, April.
    23. Frederick Solt, 2008. "Economic Inequality and Democratic Political Engagement," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(1), pages 48-60, January.
    24. Andreas Madestam & Daniel Shoag & Stan Veuger & David Yanagizawa-Drott, 2013. "Do Political Protests Matter? Evidence from the Tea Party Movement," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(4), pages 1633-1685.
    25. Ravallion, Martin & Lokshin, Michael, 2010. "Who cares about relative deprivation?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 171-185, February.
    26. Patricia Justino & Ana Arjona & Juan Camilo Cárdenas & Ana María Ibáñez & Julián Arteaga, 2019. "On the political and social consequences of economic inequality: Civic engagement in Colombia," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-76, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    27. Nicolas Albacete & Pirmin Fessler & Peter Lindner, 2022. "The Wealth Distribution and Redistributive Preferences: Evidence from a Randomized Survey Experiment (Nicolás Albacete, Pirmin Fessler, Peter Lindner)," Working Papers 239, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    28. Beegle, Kathleen & Himelein, Kristen & Ravallion, Martin, 2012. "Frame-of-reference bias in subjective welfare," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 556-570.
    29. Kristoffer B Hvidberg & Claus T Kreiner & Stefanie Stantcheva, 2023. "Social Positions and Fairness Views on Inequality," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(6), pages 3083-3118.
    30. Ryan W. Buell & Taly Reich & Michael I. Norton, 2014. ""Last-Place Aversion": Evidence and Redistributive Implications," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(1), pages 105-149.
    31. Christopher Hoy & Franziska Mager, 2021. "Why Are Relatively Poor People Not More Supportive of Redistribution? Evidence from a Randomized Survey Experiment across Ten Countries," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 299-328, November.
    32. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson & Kaveh Majlesi, 2020. "Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3139-3183, October.
    33. Nicolas Berman & Mathieu Couttenier, 2015. "External Shocks, Internal Shots: The Geography of Civil Conflicts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(4), pages 758-776, October.
    34. Maurizio Bussolo & Ada Ferrer‐i‐Carbonell & Anna Giolbas & Iván Torre, 2021. "I Perceive Therefore I Demand: The Formation of Inequality Perceptions and Demand for Redistribution," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 67(4), pages 835-871, December.
    35. Mounir Karadja & Johanna Mollerstrom & David Seim, 2017. "Richer (and Holier) Than Thou? The Effect of Relative Income Improvements on Demand for Redistribution," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 201-212, May.
    36. Fong, Christina, 2001. "Social preferences, self-interest, and the demand for redistribution," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 225-246, November.
    37. Sendhil Mullainathan & Marianne Bertrand, 2001. "Do People Mean What They Say? Implications for Subjective Survey Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 67-72, May.
    38. Matteo Cervellati & Elena Esposito & Uwe Sunde, 2022. "Epidemic Shocks and Civil Violence: Evidence from Malaria Outbreaks in Africa," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 780-796, October.
    39. Brady, Henry E. & Verba, Sidney & Schlozman, Kay Lehman, 1995. "Beyond SES: A Resource Model of Political Participation," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 89(2), pages 271-294, June.
    40. Cruces, Guillermo & Perez-Truglia, Ricardo & Tetaz, Martin, 2013. "Biased perceptions of income distribution and preferences for redistribution: Evidence from a survey experiment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 100-112.
    41. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-00754447 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martin Brun & Xavier Ramos, 2025. "Attitudes to income inequality and redistribution," Working Papers 33, Finnish Centre of Excellence in Tax Systems Research.
    2. Justino, Patricia, 2025. "Revisiting the links between economic inequality and political violence: The role of social mobilization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    3. repec:ces:ceswps:_9253 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Jeffrey, Karen & Matakos, Konstantinos, 2024. "Automation anxiety, fairness perceptions, and redistribution: Past experiences condition the response to future job loss," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 174-190.
    5. Bonnet, Julien & Ciani, Emanuele & Grimalda, Gianluca & Murtin, Fabrice & Pipke, David, 2025. "What explains preferences for redistribution? Evidence from an international survey," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    6. Barros, Laura & Santos Silva, Manuel, 2025. "Economic shocks, gender, and populism: Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    7. Gassmann, Franziska & Timár, Eszter, 2024. "Perceived position on the social ladder and redistributive preferences – A survey experiment from the Kyrgyz Republic," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    8. Kim Leonie Kellermann, 2022. "Political inequality, political participation, and support for populist parties," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 461-482, December.
    9. Riccardo Bruni & Alessandro Gioffré & Maria Marino, 2025. "In‐group bias in preferences for redistribution: a survey experiment in Italy," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 92(367), pages 1009-1080, July.
    10. repec:osf:socarx:3x4jh_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Tsvetkova, Milena & Olsson, Henrik & Galesic, Mirta, 2024. "Social networks affect redistribution decisions and polarization," OSF Preprints bw7ux_v1, Center for Open Science.
    12. Juliana Londoño-Vélez, 2022. "The Impact of Diversity on Perceptions of Income Distribution and Preferences for Redistribution," NBER Working Papers 30386, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Javier Terrero-Davila & Neil Lee, 2023. "Left-Behind vs. Unequal Places: Interpersonal Inequality, Economic Decline, and the Rise of Populism in the US and Europe," LIS Working papers 859, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    14. Marco Manacorda & Guido Tabellini & Andrea Tesei, 2022. "Mobile Internet and the Rise of Political Tribalism in Europe," Working Papers 941, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    15. Londoño-Vélez, Juliana, 2022. "The impact of diversity on perceptions of income distribution and preferences for redistribution," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    16. Ranucci, Immacolata & Abay, Kibrom A. & Tiberti, Luca, 2025. "Perceived need and measured well-being: How well do subjective rankings capture relative poverty?," IFPRI discussion papers 2386, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    17. Andreoli, Francesco & Olivera, Javier, 2020. "Preferences for redistribution and exposure to tax-benefit schemes in Europe," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    18. Marco Manacorda & Guido Tabellini & Andrea Tesei, 2022. "Mobile Internet and the Rise of Communitarian Politics," CESifo Working Paper Series 9955, CESifo.
    19. Bauernschuster, Stefan & Blum, Matthias & Hornung, Erik & Koenig, Christoph, 2025. "The political effects of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Weimar Germany," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    20. Daryna Grechyna, 2024. "Technological Progress and Political Disengagement," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 66(2), pages 261-288, June.
    21. Günther, Isabel & Martorano, Bruno, 2025. "Inequality, social mobility and redistributive preferences," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    22. Győző Gyöngyösi & Emil Verner, 2022. "Financial Crisis, Creditor‐Debtor Conflict, and Populism," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(4), pages 2471-2523, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:199:y:2026:i:c:s0305750x25003341. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.