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Economic shocks, gender, and populism: Evidence from Brazil

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  • Barros, Laura
  • Santos Silva, Manuel

Abstract

This paper investigates whether differential exposure to a labor market shock by gender contributed to the rise of far-right populism in Brazil. Using a shift-share approach, we find that gender heterogeneity in shock exposure predicts electoral outcomes. Male-specific labor demand shocks increase support for Jair Bolsonaro in the 2018 presidential election, but female-specific shocks have the reverse effect. These opposing effects are accompanied by an unprecedented gender gap in political preferences, with men becoming relatively more conservative. Our preferred interpretation is that Bolsonaro’s conservative rhetoric – shared by several other right-wing populists – generates appeal among men who experience a relative loss in economic status.

Suggested Citation

  • Barros, Laura & Santos Silva, Manuel, 2025. "Economic shocks, gender, and populism: Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:174:y:2025:i:c:s0304387824001615
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103412
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic shocks; Elections; Populism; Gender;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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