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Civil war and the economies of the peace dividend

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  • Paul Collier

Abstract

Civil wars dramatically reduce income. Peace might therefore be expected to generate a dividend which both the government and the private sector can spend. Paradoxically, those civil wars which are prolonged and therefore do most damage create only small instant peace dividends. Income has fallen because capital has been lost and so cannot recover until capital has been reaccumulated. However, some of the capital losses are reverable. Once confidence in a secure environment is restored there is a delayed peace dividend as private capital is repatriated and `social capital' is rebuilt. Postwar governments should therefore focus not upon how to spend an illusory early dividend, but on how to restore private confidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Collier, 1995. "Civil war and the economies of the peace dividend," CSAE Working Paper Series 1995-08, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  • Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:1995-08
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    File URL: http://www.csae.ox.ac.uk/materials/papers/9508text.pdf
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    1. Azam, Jean-Paul & Bevan, David & Collier, Paul & Dercon, Stefan & Gunning, Jan & Pradhan, Sanjay, 1995. "Some economic consequences of the transition from civil war to peace," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1392, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Frances Stewart & Frank Humphreys & Nick Lea, 1997. "Civil conflict in developing countries over the last quarter of a century: An empirical overview of economic and social consequences," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 11-41.
    2. Meghan O'Sullivan, 1997. "Household entitlements during wartime: The experience of Sri Lanka," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 95-121.
    3. Tobias, Jutta M. & Mair, Johanna & Barbosa-Leiker, Celestina, 2013. "Toward a theory of transformative entrepreneuring: Poverty reduction and conflict resolution in Rwanda's entrepreneurial coffee sector," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 728-742.
    4. Colin W. O'Reilly, 2015. "Firm Investment decisions in the post-conflict context," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 23(4), pages 717-751, October.

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