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Civil conflict in developing countries over the last quarter of a century: An empirical overview of economic and social consequences

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  • Frances Stewart
  • Frank Humphreys
  • Nick Lea

Abstract

There is a growing number of wars in developing countries and they are∼ concentrated among the least developed countries. This paper explores their economic and social consequences by examining the behaviour of countries worst affected by war from 1970 to 1990. Despite problems about methodology and data some important conclusions emerge. There were invariably large economic and social costs in addition to the direct battle deaths, although the effects varied according to the nature and duration of the conflict and the state of the economy. The costs are indicated by losses in GDP, exports and food production per capita compared with what might have been expected in the absence of conflict. In most cases, trends in infant mortality rates were significantly worse in war-affected than comparable economies. The extent of these losses varied, however, while other effects, such as on savings and investment propensities, government revenue shares and expenditure on social services, differed sharply among economies in conflict, reflecting differences in conditions, in government and donor policy and civil and private initiatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Frances Stewart & Frank Humphreys & Nick Lea, 1997. "Civil conflict in developing countries over the last quarter of a century: An empirical overview of economic and social consequences," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 11-41.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:oxdevs:v:25:y:1997:i:1:p:11-41
    DOI: 10.1080/13600819708424120
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul Collier, 1995. "Civil war and the economies of the peace dividend," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/1995-08, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Sen, A., 1991. "Wars And Famines: On Divisions And Incentives," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1537, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    3. Paul Collier, 1995. "Civil war and the economies of the peace dividend," CSAE Working Paper Series 1995-08, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    4. repec:fth:oxesaf:95-8 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Lopes da Fonseca, Mariana & Baskaran, Thushyanthan, 2015. "Re-evaluating the economic costs of conflicts," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 246, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    2. David Pottebaum & Ravi Kanbur, 2004. "Civil war, public goods and the social wealth of nations," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 459-484.
    3. Mujawamariya, Gaudiose & Karimov, Aziz A., 2014. "Importance of socio-economic factors in the collection of NTFPs: The case of gum arabic in Kenya," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 24-29.
    4. Fafchamps, Marcel & Minten, Bart, 2006. "Crime, Transitory Poverty, and Isolation: Evidence from Madagascar," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 579-603, April.
    5. Wayne Nafziger & Juha Auvinen, 1997. "War, Hunger, and Displacement: An Econometric Investigation into the Sources of Humanitarian Emergencies," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-1997-142, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Gates, Scott & Hegre, Håvard & Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv & Strand, Håvard, 2012. "Development Consequences of Armed Conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 1713-1722.
    7. Mathur Somesh K., 2001. "Casualties of Militarization in the Contemporary World: Democracy and Development," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-42, July.
    8. Bridgman, Benjamin, 2008. "Why are ethnically divided countries poor?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 1-18, March.
    9. Carly Petracco & Helena Schweiger, 2012. "The impact of armed conflict on firms’ performance and perceptions," Working Papers 152, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Office of the Chief Economist.
    10. Rekova Nataliia Yu. & Vishnevsky Valentine P., 2016. "Principles, Economic and Institutional Prerequisites for Fiscal Decentralization under Conditions of Post-Conflict Reconstruction," The Problems of Economy, RESEARCH CENTRE FOR INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS of NAS (KHARKIV, UKRAINE), issue 4, pages 183-189.
    11. Wayne Nafziger, E. & Auvinen, Juha, 2002. "Economic Development, Inequality, War, and State Violence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 153-163, February.
    12. Binetti, Marco Nicola, 2023. "Rebuilding energy infrastructures and the manufacturing sector in post-conflict countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    13. AfDB AfDB, 2002. "Working Paper 48 - Challenges of Infrastructure Rehabilitation and Reconstruction in War - Affected Economies," Working Paper Series 2183, African Development Bank.
    14. Michal Bauer & Julie Chytilová, 2010. "The Impact of Education on Subjective Discount Rate in Ugandan Villages," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(4), pages 643-669, July.
    15. AfDB AfDB, 2002. "Working Paper 48 - Challenges of Infrastructure Rehabilitation and Reconstruction in War - Affected Economies," Working Paper Series 2263, African Development Bank.
    16. Bridgman, Benjamin, 2008. "Why are ethnically divided countries poor?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 1-18, March.
    17. World Bank, 2002. "Sri Lanka : Poverty Assessment," World Bank Publications - Reports 15387, The World Bank Group.
    18. Rodgers, Yana Van der Meulen & Cooley, Jane C., 1999. "Outstanding Female Economists in the Analysis and Practice of Development Economics," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1397-1411, August.
    19. Belshaw, Deryke & Lawrence, Peter & Hubbard, Michael, 1999. "Agricultural Tradables and Economic Recovery in Uganda: The Limitations of Structural Adjustment in Practice," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 673-690, April.

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