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Does urbanization cause crime? Evidence from rural–urban migration in South Africa

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  • Exbrayat, Nelly
  • Stephane, Victor

Abstract

We study the impact of urbanization driven by internal migration on crime in South Africa. We create a new dataset that combines yearly data on crime and urban population density at the municipality level from 2011 to 2018. We exploit exogenous variations in rural–urban migration induced by climate shocks at origin for identification. We show that higher urban population density leads to a reduction in pecuniary crime rate but has no effect on non-pecuniary crime rate. This negative effect operates through changes in population composition and a social network effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Exbrayat, Nelly & Stephane, Victor, 2025. "Does urbanization cause crime? Evidence from rural–urban migration in South Africa," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:149:y:2025:i:c:s009411902500052x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103787
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    JEL classification:

    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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