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The Long-Run Effect of Mexican Immigration on Crime in US Cities: Evidence from Variation in Mexican Fertility Rates

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  • Aaron Chalfin

Abstract

Using historical data on the size of state-specific Mexican birth cohorts and geographic migration networks between Mexican states and US metropolitan areas, I construct an instrumental variable that predicts decadal migration from Mexico to the United States. The intuition behind this identification strategy is that larger historical birth cohorts in Mexico yield more potential migrants once each birth cohort reaches prime migration age. I report evidence that Mexican immigration is associated with a decline in property crimes and an increase in aggravated assaults. The available evidence suggests that this is not an artifact of reduced crime reporting among immigrants.

Suggested Citation

  • Aaron Chalfin, 2015. "The Long-Run Effect of Mexican Immigration on Crime in US Cities: Evidence from Variation in Mexican Fertility Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 220-225, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:105:y:2015:i:5:p:220-25
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.p20151043
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Abowd, John M. & Freeman, Richard B. (ed.), 1991. "Immigration, Trade, and the Labor Market," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226000954, August.
    2. Aaron Chalfin, 2014. "What is the Contribution of Mexican Immigration to U.S. Crime Rates? Evidence from Rainfall Shocks in Mexico," American Law and Economics Review, American Law and Economics Association, vol. 16(1), pages 220-268.
    3. Kristin F. Butcher & Anne Morrison Piehl, 1998. "Cross-city evidence on the relationship between immigration and crime," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 457-493.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Eva-Maria Egger, 2022. "Internal Migration and Crime in Brazil," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(1), pages 223-259.
    2. Hines, Annie Laurie & Peri, Giovanni, 2019. "Immigrants' Deportations, Local Crime and Police Effectiveness," IZA Discussion Papers 12413, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Ramón Rey & Günther G. Schulze & Nikita Zakharov, 2024. "Transit Migration and Crime: Evidence from Colombia," Discussion Paper Series 44 JEL Classification: J1, Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg, revised Jan 2024.
    4. Kayaoglu, Aysegul, 2022. "Do refugees cause crime?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    5. Schiff, Maurice, 2019. "Greater US Gun Ownership, Lethality and Murder Rates: Analysis and Policy Proposals," GLO Discussion Paper Series 421, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    6. Mariani, Fabio & Mercier, Marion, 2021. "Immigration and crime: The role of self-selection and institutions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 538-564.
    7. Sekou Keita & Thomas Renault & Jérôme Valette, 2024. "The Usual Suspects: Offender Origin, Media Reporting and Natives’ Attitudes Towards Immigration," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(657), pages 322-362.
    8. Peri, Giovanni & Mayda, Anna Maria & Steingress, Walter, 2015. "Immigration to the U.S.: A problem for the Republicans or the Democrats?," CEPR Discussion Papers 11001, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Stuhler, Jan & Jaeger, David & Ruist, Joakim, 2018. "Shift-Share Instruments and the Impact of Immigration," CEPR Discussion Papers 12701, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Arsenii Shcherbov, 2024. "Forced Migration and Crime: Evidence from the 2014 Immigration Wave to Russia," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp782, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    11. Huang, Yue & Kvasnicka, Michael, 2019. "Immigration and Crimes against Natives: The 2015 Refugee Crisis in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 12469, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Bansak, Cynthia & Pozo, Susan, 2018. "Refugee Admissions and Public Safety: Are Refugee Settlement Areas More Prone to Crime?," IZA Discussion Papers 11612, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Heepyung Cho, 2022. "Border enforcement and the sorting and commuting patterns of Hispanics," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(4), pages 938-960, September.
    14. Pia M. Orrenius & Madeline Zavodny, 2019. "Do Immigrants Threaten U.S. Public Safety?," Working Papers 1905, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    15. Long Qian & Lixian Liu & Hongbo Liu & Xinjie Shi, 2024. "How does Migration Impact Individuals’ Public Safety Perceptions? Evidence from China," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 174(2), pages 503-524, September.
    16. Otsu, Yuki, 2021. "Sanctuary cities and crime," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 600-615.
    17. Hu, Xiaoshan & Song, Jie & Wan, Guanghua, 2024. "Transborder spillover effects of poverty on crime: Applying spatial econometric models to Chinese data," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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