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Does Urbanization Cause Crime? Evidence from Rural-Urban Migration in South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Nelly Exbrayat

    (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - EM - EMLyon Business School - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Victor Stephane

    (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - EM - EMLyon Business School - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We study the impact of urbanization driven by internal migration on crime in South Africa. We create a new dataset that combines yearly data on crime and urban population density at the municipality level from 2011 to 2018. We exploit exogenous variations in rural-urban migration induced by climate shocks at origin for identification. We show that higher urban population density leads to a reduction in pecuniary crime rate but has no effect on non-pecuniary crime rate. We highlight two mechanisms explaining this negative effect: a change in population composition and a social network effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Nelly Exbrayat & Victor Stephane, 2024. "Does Urbanization Cause Crime? Evidence from Rural-Urban Migration in South Africa," Working Papers halshs-04390026, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-04390026
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-04390026v1
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    JEL classification:

    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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