Navigating environmental vulnerability and resource dependence: Toward equitable and sustainable growth pathways in resource-rich economies

This study examines how environmental vulnerability and resource dependence shape economic sustainability in resource-rich economies, advancing beyond the traditional Environmental Kuznets Curve and Resource Curse frameworks. Using panel data from 147 countries covering the period 1990 to 2020, we analyze five stressors: CO2 emissions, food price volatility, natural resource depletion, population density, and forest area. The analysis employs a panel ARDL framework, supplemented by FMOLS, DOLS, Granger causality, and robustness diagnostics. Results reveal marked heterogeneity across income groups. In high-income economies, forest conservation and demographic density enhance economic resilience, while emissions hinder renewable energy adoption. In middle-income economies, resource depletion and food price volatility drive short-term growth but reinforce a green growth paradox. In low-income economies, structural weaknesses limit responsiveness, locking development into extraction and emission-intensive paths. The study contributes by providing the first large-scale, income-stratified analysis of multidimensional stressors on growth and renewable energy, by strengthening methodological rigor with spuriousness and causality checks, and by offering context-sensitive policy pathways. Policy priorities include carbon pricing and forest-based carbon markets for high-income economies, governance reforms and green infrastructure investment for middle-income economies, and concessional finance for renewable energy and food system stabilization in low-income contexts.