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The effect of US stress tests on monetary policy spillovers to emerging markets

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  • Friederike Niepmann
  • Tim Schmidt‐Eisenlohr
  • Emily Liu

Abstract

This paper explores the transmission of US monetary policy through US banks to emerging market economies (EMEs) and the role that stress tests play in this transmission. Data on US banks’ monthly commercial and industrial loan originations shows that: (a) US bank lending to EMEs was sensitive to domestic monetary policy changes during the zero‐lower bound period. (b) Effects of monetary easing were heterogeneous across banks and depended on banks’ stress test results, a proxy for their capital strength. Only banks that comfortably passed the stress tests issued more loans to EME borrowers. (c) Effects of monetary tightening were more similar across banks. (d) Banks shifted their lending to safer borrowers within EMEs in response to monetary easing, leaving the risk of their overall loan books unchanged. These results support the hypothesis that bank capital affects the transmission of easier monetary policy, including across borders. We conjecture that bank lending to EMEs during the zero‐lower bound period would have been even higher had the United States not introduced stress tests for their banks.

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  • Friederike Niepmann & Tim Schmidt‐Eisenlohr & Emily Liu, 2021. "The effect of US stress tests on monetary policy spillovers to emerging markets," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 165-194, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:29:y:2021:i:1:p:165-194
    DOI: 10.1111/roie.12502
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    Cited by:

    1. Katharina Bergant & Francesco Grigoli & Niels‐Jakob Hansen & Damiano Sandri, 2024. "Dampening Global Financial Shocks: Can Macroprudential Regulation Help (More than Capital Controls)?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(6), pages 1405-1438, September.
    2. Linda S. Goldberg, 2024. "Global Liquidity: Drivers, Volatility and Toolkits," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(1), pages 1-31, March.
    3. Coman, Andra, 2025. "Monetary policy spillovers and the role of prudential policies in the European Union," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    4. Falk Bräuning & José Fillat, 2020. "The Impact of Regulatory Stress Tests on Bank Lending and Its Macroeconomic Consequences," Working Papers 20-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    5. Coman, Andra, 2023. "Monetary policy spillovers and the role of prudential policies in the European Union," Working Paper Series 2854, European Central Bank.
    6. Ahmed, Kasim & Calice, Giovanni, 2024. "The effects of the EBA's stress testing framework on banks' lending," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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