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Risk Taking and Interest Rates : Evidence from Decades in the Global Syndicated Loan Market

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  • Seung Jung Lee
  • Lucy Qian Liu
  • Viktors Stebunovs

Abstract

We study how low interest rates in the United States affect risk taking in the market for cross-border corporate loans. Because banks tend to originate these loans with intent to sell to nonbank investors, we examine risk taking by the broad financial system. To the extent that actions of the Federal Reserve affect U.S. interest rates, our analysis provides evidence of cross-border spillover effects of U.S. monetary policy and highlights the global lending and risk-taking channels. We find that movements in the U.S. interest rates have an important effect on ex-ante credit risk of cross-border corporate loans, though the channels are different in the pre- and post-crisis periods. Before the crisis, banks made ex-ante riskier loans to non-U.S. borrowers in response to a decline in U.S. short-term interest rates, and, after it, banks and nonbanks originated such loans in response to a decline in U.S. longer- term interest rates. Economic uncertainty, risk appetite, and the U.S. dollar exchange rate appear to play a limited role in explaining ex-ante credit risk. Our results highlight the potential policy challenges faced by central banks in affecting credit risk cycles in their own jurisdictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Seung Jung Lee & Lucy Qian Liu & Viktors Stebunovs, 2017. "Risk Taking and Interest Rates : Evidence from Decades in the Global Syndicated Loan Market," International Finance Discussion Papers 1188, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1188
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2017.1188
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    Cited by:

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    2. Guillaume Khayat, 2017. "The Corridor's Width as a Monetary Policy Tool," Working Papers halshs-01611650, HAL.
    3. Calem, Paul & Correa, Ricardo & Lee, Seung Jung, 2020. "Prudential policies and their impact on credit in the United States," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    4. Buch, Claudia M. & Bussierè, Matthieu & Goldberg, Linda & Hills, Robert, 2019. "The international transmission of monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 29-48.
    5. Matthys, Thomas & Meuleman, Elien & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2020. "Unconventional monetary policy and bank risk taking," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    6. Niepmann, Friederike & Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim, 2018. "Global Investors, the Dollar, and U.S. Credit Conditions," CEPR Discussion Papers 13237, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Friederike Niepmann & Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr, 2019. "Institutional Investors, the Dollar, and U.S. Credit Conditions," International Finance Discussion Papers 1246, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. John Ammer & Alexandra Tabova & Stijn Claessens, 2018. "Searching for Yield Abroad: Risk-Taking through Foreign Investment in U.S. Bonds," 2018 Meeting Papers 960, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Leonidas Paroussos & Kostas Fragkiadakis & Panagiotis Fragkos, 2020. "Macro-economic analysis of green growth policies: the role of finance and technical progress in Italian green growth," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(4), pages 591-608, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Syndicated loans; Risk taking; Monetary policy; International spillovers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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