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Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Forecast Targeting

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2010. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 618-624, March.
  2. Bodenstein Martin R. & Armenter Roc, 2009. "Of Nutters and Doves," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, September.
  3. Michal Franta & Jozef Barunik & Roman Horvath & Katerina Smidkova, 2011. "Are Bayesian Fan Charts Useful for Central Banks? Uncertainty, Forecasting, and Financial Stability Stress Tests," Working Papers 2011/10, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
  4. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2008. "Learning, expectations formation, and the pitfalls of optimal control monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages 80-96, October.
  5. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2009. "Imperfect Knowledge and the Pitfalls of Optimal Control Monetary Policy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 4, pages 115-144, Central Bank of Chile.
  6. Christian Pinshi, 2020. "COVID-19 uncertainty and monetary policy," Working Papers hal-02566796, HAL.
  7. Zheng Liu & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2007. "Asymmetric expectation effects of regime shifts and the Great Moderation," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2007-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  8. Francesco Bianchi, 2013. "Regime Switches, Agents' Beliefs, and Post-World War II U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(2), pages 463-490.
  9. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Vegard H. Larsen & Junior Maih, 2018. "Oil and Macroeconomic (In)stability," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 128-151, October.
  10. Kostas Mavromatis, 2018. "U.S. Monetary Regimes and Optimal Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1441-1478, October.
  11. Brock, William A. & Durlauf, Steven N. & Nason, James M. & Rondina, Giacomo, 2007. "Simple versus optimal rules as guides to policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1372-1396, July.
  12. Alan S. Blinder & Ricardo Reis, 2005. "Understanding the Greenspan standard," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 11-96.
  13. Troy Davig & Eric Leeper, 2009. "Reply To “Generalizing The Taylor Principle: A Comment”," CAEPR Working Papers 2009-008, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
  14. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2011. "Minimal state variable solutions to Markov-switching rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2150-2166.
  15. Luo, Yulei & Nie, Jun & Young, Eric R., 2014. "Model uncertainty and intertemporal tax smoothing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 289-314.
  16. Davig, Troy & Leeper, Eric M., 2011. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions and fiscal stimulus," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 211-227, February.
  17. Chang, Yoosoon & Maih, Junior & Tan, Fei, 2021. "Origins of monetary policy shifts: A New approach to regime switching in DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
  18. Richhild Moessner & David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2017. "Communication About Future Policy Rates In Theory And Practice: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 678-711, July.
  19. Alan S. Blinder & Ricardo Reis, 2005. "Understanding the Greenspan standard," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 11-96.
  20. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2009. "A New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1036-1051, May.
  21. Chen, Xiaoshan & Kirsanova, Tatiana & Leith, Campbell, 2014. "An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-04, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  22. Roger E. A. Farmer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2009. "Indeterminacy in a forward‐looking regime switching model," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 5(1), pages 69-84, March.
  23. Troy A. Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2009. "Reply to "Generalizing the Taylor principle": a comment," Research Working Paper RWP 09-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  24. Gust, Christopher & Herbst, Edward & López-Salido, David, 2025. "Optimal monetary policy with uncertain private sector foresight," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
  25. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação & Vasco Gabriel, 2008. "Taylor-type rules versus optimal policy in a Markov-switching economy," GEMF Working Papers 2008-02, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
  26. Michael Paetz, 2007. "Robust Control and Persistence in the New Keynesian Economy," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20711, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
  27. Andrew T. Foerster, 2016. "Monetary Policy Regime Switches And Macroeconomic Dynamics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(1), pages 211-230, February.
  28. Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2011. "Evolving Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Open Economy: An Estimated Markov Switching DSGE Model for the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1443-1474, October.
  29. Petra Gerlach & Barbara Rudolf, 2010. "Macroeconomic and interest rate volatility under alternative monetary operating procedures," Working Papers 2010-12, Swiss National Bank.
  30. Malin Adolfson & Stefan Las√Âen & Jesper Lind√ & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2011. "Optimal Monetary Policy in an Operational Medium-Sized DSGE Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1287-1331, October.
  31. Cogley, Timothy & De Paoli, Bianca & Matthes, Christian & Nikolov, Kalin & Yates, Tony, 2011. "A Bayesian approach to optimal monetary policy with parameter and model uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2186-2212.
  32. Alstadheim, Ragna & Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Maih, Junior, 2021. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A Markov-switching structural investigation of commodity exporters and importers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
  33. Flamini, Alessandro & Milas, Costas, 2015. "Distribution forecast targeting in an open-economy, macroeconomic volatility and financial implications," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 89-105.
  34. Richhild Moessner, 2006. "Optimal discretionary policy in rational expectations models with regime switching," Bank of England working papers 299, Bank of England.
  35. Bianchi, Francesco, 2016. "Methods for measuring expectations and uncertainty in Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 190(1), pages 79-99.
  36. Pär Österholm, 2009. "Incorporating Judgement in Fan Charts," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 111(2), pages 387-415, June.
  37. Junior Maih, 2014. "Efficient Perturbation Methods for Solving Regime-Switching DSGE Models," Working Papers No 10/2014, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  38. Andrew Foerster & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2013. "Perturbation methods for Markov-switching DSGE models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2013-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  39. Timothy Cogley, 2008. "Commentary on \\"Optimal monetary policy under uncertainty: a Markov jump-linear-quadratic approach\\"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Jul), pages 295-300.
  40. Chen, Xiaoshan & Kirsanova, Tatiana & Leith, Campbell, 2017. "How optimal is US monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 96-111.
  41. Funashima, Yoshito, 2020. "Monetary policy, financial uncertainty, and secular stagnation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
  42. Flamini Alessandro, 2012. "Economic Stability and the Choice of the Target Inflation Index," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 1-37, April.
  43. Svensson, Lars E. O. & Williams, Noah, 2006. "Bayesian and adaptive optimal policy under model uncertainty," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/11, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  44. Alexandre, Fernando & Bação, Pedro & Gabriel, Vasco, 2010. "Soft landing in a Markov-switching economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 169-172, May.
  45. Williams, Noah, 2012. "Monetary policy under financial uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(5), pages 449-465.
  46. Lars E. O. Svensson & Noah Williams, 2008. "Optimal monetary policy under uncertainty: a Markov jump-linear-quadratic approach," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Jul), pages 275-294.
  47. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2007. "Optimal inflation Targeting: Further Developments of Inflation Targeting," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 6, pages 187-225, Central Bank of Chile.
  48. Shouyong Shi, 2006. "Welfare Improvement from Restricting the Liquidity of Nominal Bonds," Working Papers tecipa-212, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  49. Chen, Xiaoshan & Kirsanova, Tatiana & Leith, Campbell, 2017. "An empirical assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy in the Euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 95-115.
  50. Francis Leni Anguyo & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotze, 2017. "Monetary Policy, Financial Frictions and Structural Changes: A Markov-Switching DSGE approach," School of Economics Macroeconomic Discussion Paper Series 2017-05, School of Economics, University of Cape Town.
  51. Ji, Yangyang & Xiao, Wei, 2016. "Government spending multipliers and the zero lower bound," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 87-100.
  52. repec:idn:jimfjn:v:4:y:2018:i:2:p:1-18 is not listed on IDEAS
  53. PINSHI, Christian P., 2020. "Uncertainty, monetary policy and COVID-19," MPRA Paper 100147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  54. William A. Branch & Troy Davig & Bruce McGough, 2007. "Expectational stability in regime-switching rational expectations models," Research Working Paper RWP 07-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  55. Troy Davig, 2016. "Phillips Curve Instability and Optimal Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(1), pages 233-246, February.
  56. Kostas Mavromatis, 2018. "U.S. Monetary Regimes and Optimal Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1441-1478, October.
  57. Ragna Alstadheim & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Junior Maih, 2013. "Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Markow-Switching Structural Investigation," Working Papers No 9/2013, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  58. Ashima Goyal, 2009. "Monetary Policy, Forex Markets and Feedback Under Uncertainity in an Opening Economy," Working Papers id:2208, eSocialSciences.
  59. Özer Karagedikli & Troy Matheson & Christie Smith & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010. "RBCs AND DSGEs: THE COMPUTATIONAL APPROACH TO BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY AND EVIDENCE," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 113-136, February.
  60. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação & John Driffill, 2007. "Optimal monetary policy with a regime-switching exchange rate in a forward-looking model," GEMF Working Papers 2007-09, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
  61. Chen, Xiaoshan & Kirsanova, Tatiana & Leith, Campbell, 2014. "An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-04, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  62. Roger E. A. Farmer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2007. "Understanding the New Keynesian model when monetary policy switches regimes," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2007-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  63. Zheng Liu & Daniel Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2009. "Asymmetric Expectation Effects of Regime Shifts in Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(2), pages 284-303, April.
  64. repec:pri:cepsud:114blinderreis is not listed on IDEAS
  65. Moessner, Richhild, 2006. "Optimal monetary policy with uncertainty about financial frictions," Working Paper Series 639, European Central Bank.
  66. Ali Alichi & Kevin Clinton & Charles Freedman & Mr. Ondrej Kamenik & Michel Juillard & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Jarkko Turunen & Hou Wang, 2015. "Avoiding Dark Corners: A Robust Monetary Policy Framework for the United States," IMF Working Papers 2015/134, International Monetary Fund.
  67. Tatiana Kirsanova & Celsa Machado & Ana Paula Ribeiro, 2020. "Tight and Loose, and Red and Blue: A 'Dance' of Macro Policies in the US," Working Papers 2020_14, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  68. Pataracchia, Beatrice, 2011. "The spectral representation of Markov switching ARMA models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 11-15, July.
  69. Gonzalez-Astudillo, Manuel, 2011. "Policy Rule Coefficients Driven by Latent Factors: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in an Endowment Economy," MPRA Paper 29976, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  70. Sebasti√°n Cadavid S√°nchez, 2018. "Monetary policy and structural changes in Colombia, 1990-2016: A Markov Switching approach," Documentos CEDE 16970, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
  71. Alessandro Flamini & Costas Milas, 2014. "Open-economy Distribution Forecast Targeting, Macroeconomic Volatility and Financial Implication," DEM Working Papers Series 080, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
  72. Bodenstein, Martin & Zhao, Junzhu, 2020. "Employment, wages and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 77-96.
  73. Pinshi, Christian P., 2020. "Monetary policy, uncertainty and COVID-19," MPRA Paper 100836, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 May 2020.
  74. Lars E O Svensson, 2005. "Monetary Policy with Judgment: Forecast Targeting," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
  75. Pardo, S. & Rautureau, N. & Vallée, T., 2011. "Optimal versus realized policy rules in a regime-switching framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2761-2775.
  76. Duncan, Alfred J. M. & Nolan, Charles, 2019. "Disputes, debt and equity," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(3), July.
  77. Tomiyuki Kitamura, 2010. "Measuring Monetary Policy Under Zero Interest Rates With a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model: An Application of a Particle Filter," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 10-E-10, Bank of Japan.
  78. André P. Calmon & Thomas Vallée & João B. R. Do Val, 2009. "Monetary policy as a source of uncertainty," Working Papers hal-00422454, HAL.
  79. Xiaoshan Chen & Ronald Macdonald, 2012. "Realized and Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Markov‐Switching DSGE Model of the United Kingdom," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(6), pages 1091-1116, September.
  80. Andrew P Blake & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2006. "Optimal monetary policy in Markov-switching models with rational expectations agents," Bank of England working papers 298, Bank of England.
  81. Dr. James Mitchell, 2009. "Macro Modelling with Many Models," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 337, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  82. Doğan, İbrahim & Bilgili, Faik, 2014. "The non-linear impact of high and growing government external debt on economic growth: A Markov Regime-switching approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 213-220.
  83. Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2011. "Evolving Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Open Economy: An Estimated Markov Switching DSGE Model for the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1443-1474, October.
  84. Alessandro Flamini, 2012. "Interest Rate Forecasts in Inflation Targeting Open-Economies," Economia politica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 381-408.
  85. Blake, Andrew P. & Zampolli, Fabrizio, 2011. "Optimal policy in Markov-switching rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 1626-1651, October.
  86. McClung, Nigel, 2020. "E-stability vis-à-vis determinacy in regime-switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
  87. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2010. "Inflation Targeting," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 22, pages 1237-1302, Elsevier.
  88. Par Osterholm, 2008. "A structural Bayesian VAR for model-based fan charts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(12), pages 1557-1569.
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