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Citations for "The predictive content of the output gap for inflation : resolving in-sample and out-of-sample evidence"

by Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken

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  1. Don H Kim & Athanasios Orphanides, 2007. "The bond market term premium: what is it, and how can we measure it?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
  2. Raffella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2005. "Detecting and Predicting Forecast Breakdowns," UCLA Economics Working Papers 845, UCLA Department of Economics.
  3. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Combining forecasts from nested models," Working Papers 2008-037, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  4. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2006. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Peter Tillmann, 2009. "The Fed’s perceived Phillips curve: Evidence from individual FOMC forecasts," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200946, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2006. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," NBER Working Papers 12324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2007. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
  8. Dong Jin Lee, 2009. "Testing Parameter Stability in Quantile Models: An Application to the U.S. Inflation Process," Working papers 2009-26, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  9. Qin, Ting & Enders, Walter, 2008. "In-sample and out-of-sample properties of linear and nonlinear Taylor rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 428-443, March.
  10. Gonzalo Llosa/Shirley Miller, 2004. "Using additional information in estimating output gap in Peru: a multivariate unobserved component approach," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 243, Econometric Society.
  11. Andreas Billmeier, 2004. "Measuring a Roller Coaster; Evidenceon the Finnish Output Gap," IMF Working Papers 04/57, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Gonzalo Llosa & Shirley Miller, 2005. "Using additional information in estimating the output gap in Peru: a multivariate unobserved component approach," Working Papers 2005-004, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  13. Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Emi Mise & Shaun Vahey, 2008. "Real-time Prediction with UK Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/13, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  14. Jeremy M. Piger & Robert H. Rasche, 2006. "Inflation: do expectations trump the gap?," Working Papers 2006-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  15. Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 583-601, June.
  16. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Working Papers 2008-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  17. Bec, F. & Mogliani, M., 2013. "Nowcasting French GDP in Real-Time from Survey Opinions: Information or Forecast Combinations?," Working papers 436, Banque de France.
  18. Aastveit, Knut Are & Trovik, Tørres, 2014. "Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 180-193.
  19. Benkovskis, Konstantins & Caivano, Michele & D’Agostino, Antonello & Dieppe, Alistair & Hurtado, Samuel & Karlsson, Tohmas & Ortega, Eva & Várnai, Tímea, 2011. "Assessing the sensitivity of inflation to economic activity," Working Paper Series 1357, European Central Bank.
  20. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Tests of equal predictive ability with real-time data," Working Papers 2008-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  21. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2010. "The Forecasting Performance of Real Time Estimates of the Euro Area Output Gap," CEPR Discussion Papers 7763, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  22. Ercio Muñoz S. & Alfredo Pistelli M., 2010. "¿Tienen los Terremotos un Impacto Inflacionario en el Corto Plazo? Evidencia para una Muestra de Países," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 13(2), pages 113-127, April.
  23. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Testing for unconditional predictive ability," Working Papers 2010-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  24. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 14322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. César Calderón & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2010. "What Drives Inflation in the World?," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.), Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks Reserve Bank of Australia.
  26. Don Kim, 2008. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  27. Pablo Pincheira & Andrés Gatty, 2014. "Forecasting Chilean Inflation with International Factors," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 723, Central Bank of Chile.
  28. Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2011. "Understanding models' forecasting performance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 158-172, September.
  29. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Brubakk, Leif & Jore, Anne Sofie, 2006. "Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap," Memorandum 11/2006, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  30. Mésonnier, J-S., 2006. "The Reliability of Macroeconomic Forecasts based on Real Interest Rate Gap Estimates in Real Time: an Assessment for the Euro Area," Working papers 157, Banque de France.
  31. Lance J. Bachmeier & Norman R. Swanson, 2005. "Predicting Inflation: Does The Quantity Theory Help?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 43(3), pages 570-585, July.
  32. George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard & Simon Price, 2007. "Forecast combination and the Bank of England’s suite of statistical forecasting models," Bank of England working papers 323, Bank of England.
  33. Todd E. Clark & Taisuke Nakata, 2008. "Has the behavior of inflation and long-term inflation expectations changed?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 17-50.
  34. Don H. Kim, 2009. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 519-544.
  35. Jean-Stéphane MESONNIER, 2007. "The predictive content of the real interest rate gap for macroeconomic variables in the euro area," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 102, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  36. Pablo Pincheira & Hernán Rubio, 2010. "The Low Predictive Power of Simple Phillips Curves in Chile: A Real-Time Evaluation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 559, Central Bank of Chile.
  37. Dong Jin Lee & Jai Hyung Yoon, 2012. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curves in Multiple Quantiles and the Asymmetry of Monetary Policy," Working papers 2012-03, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  38. Michael Dotsey & Shigeru Fujita & Tom Stark, 2011. "Do Phillips curves conditionally help to forecast inflation?," Working Papers 11-40, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  39. Manzan, Sebastiano & Zerom, Dawit, 2009. "Are Macroeconomic Variables Useful for Forecasting the Distribution of U.S. Inflation?," MPRA Paper 14387, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  40. Frédérick Demers, 2003. "The Canadian Phillips Curve and Regime Shifting," Working Papers 03-32, Bank of Canada.
  41. Michael W. McCracken & Todd E. Clark, 2003. "The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 183, Society for Computational Economics.
  42. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  43. Troy Matheson, 2006. "Phillips curve forecasting in a small open economy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  44. Driver, Ciaran & Trapani, Lorenzo & Urga, Giovanni, 2013. "On the use of cross-sectional measures of forecast uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 367-377.
  45. Scott Brave & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2004. "In search of a robust inflation forecast," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 12-31.
  46. McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
  47. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2010. "Real time estimates of the euro area output gap: reliability and forecasting performance," Working Paper Series 1157, European Central Bank.
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