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Citations for "The predictive content of the output gap for inflation : resolving in-sample and out-of-sample evidence"

by Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken

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  1. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2003. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-01, CIRANO.
  2. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 5-29.
  3. Giacomini, Raffaella & Rossi, Barbara, 2006. "Detecting and predicting forecast breakdowns," Working Paper Series 0638, European Central Bank.
  4. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Wang, Yi-Chiuan, 2013. "Fundamentals, forecast combinations and nominal exchange-rate predictability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 129-145.
  5. César Calderón & Klaus Schmidt Hebbel, 2008. "What Drives Inflation in the World?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 491, Central Bank of Chile.
  6. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  7. Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2011. "Understanding models' forecasting performance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 158-172, September.
  8. Pablo Pincheira & Hernán Rubio, 2010. "The Low Predictive Power of Simple Phillips Curves in Chile: A Real-Time Evaluation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 559, Central Bank of Chile.
  9. Ayse Kabukcuoglu & Enrique Martínez-García, 2015. "Inflation as a Global Phenomenon—Some Implications for Policy Analysis and Forecasting," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1520, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  10. Dong Jin Lee & Jai Hyung Yoon, 2012. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curves in Multiple Quantiles and the Asymmetry of Monetary Policy," Working papers 2012-03, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  11. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips curve inflation forecasts," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 53.
  12. Pablo Pincheira & Andrés Gatty, 2016. "Forecasting Chilean inflation with international factors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 981-1010, November.
  13. Manzan, Sebastiano & Zerom, Dawit, 2009. "Are Macroeconomic Variables Useful for Forecasting the Distribution of U.S. Inflation?," MPRA Paper 14387, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Jean-Stéphane MESONNIER, 2007. "The predictive content of the real interest rate gap for macroeconomic variables in the euro area," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 102, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  15. Kenneth D. West & Todd Clark, 2006. "Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Testing for unconditional predictive ability," Working Papers 2010-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  17. McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
  18. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2009. "Nested forecast model comparisons: a new approach to testing equal accuracy," Research Working Paper RWP 09-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  19. Todd E. Clark & Taisuke Nakata, 2008. "Has the behavior of inflation and long-term inflation expectations changed?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 17-50.
  20. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2009. "Tests of Equal Predictive Ability With Real-Time Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 441-454.
  21. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2005. "Do Macro Variables, Asset Markets or Surveys Forecast Inflation Better?," NBER Working Papers 11538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Bec, Frédérique & Mogliani, Matteo, 2015. "Nowcasting French GDP in real-time with surveys and “blocked” regressions: Combining forecasts or pooling information?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1021-1042.
  23. Gonzalo Llosa/Shirley Miller, 2004. "Using additional information in estimating output gap in Peru: a multivariate unobserved component approach," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 243, Econometric Society.
  24. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2003. "The predictive content of the output gap for inflation : resolving in-sample and out-of-sample evidence," Research Working Paper RWP 03-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  25. Don H. Kim, 2008. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  26. Lee, Dong Jin & Yoon, Jai Hyung, 2016. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in multiple quantiles and the asymmetry of monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 102-114.
  27. Hilde Bjørnland & Leif Brubakk & Anne Jore, 2008. "Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 413-436, November.
  28. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2009. "Combining Forecasts from Nested Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(3), pages 303-329, 06.
  29. Lance J. Bachmeier & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Predicting Inflation: Does The Quantity Theory Help?," Departmental Working Papers 200317, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  30. Qin, Ting & Enders, Walter, 2008. "In-sample and out-of-sample properties of linear and nonlinear Taylor rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 428-443, March.
  31. Andreas Billmeier, 2004. "Measuring a Roller Coaster; Evidenceon the Finnish Output Gap," IMF Working Papers 04/57, International Monetary Fund.
  32. Don H. Kim, 2009. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 519-544.
  33. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2010. "Real time estimates of the euro area output gap: reliability and forecasting performance," Working Paper Series 1157, European Central Bank.
  34. Knut Are Aastveit & Tørres G. Trovik, 2008. "Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach," Working Paper 2008/23, Norges Bank.
  35. Dotsey, Michael & Fujita, Shigeru & Stark, Tom, 2011. "Do Phillips curves conditionally help to forecast inflation?," Working Papers 11-40, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  36. Driver, Ciaran & Trapani, Lorenzo & Urga, Giovanni, 2013. "On the use of cross-sectional measures of forecast uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 367-377.
  37. Benkovskis, Konstantins & Caivano, Michele & D’Agostino, Antonello & Dieppe, Alistair & Hurtado, Samuel & Karlsson, Tohmas & Ortega, Eva & Várnai, Tímea, 2011. "Assessing the sensitivity of inflation to economic activity," Working Paper Series 1357, European Central Bank.
  38. Matheson, Troy D., 2008. "Phillips curve forecasting in a small open economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 161-166, February.
  39. Scott Brave & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2004. "In search of a robust inflation forecast," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 12-31.
  40. Frédérick Demers, 2003. "The Canadian Phillips Curve and Regime Shifting," Staff Working Papers 03-32, Bank of Canada.
  41. Michał Hulej & Grzegorz Grabek, 2015. "Output gap measure based on survey data," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 200, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  42. Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Emi Mise & Shaun Vahey, 2008. "Real-time Prediction with UK Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/13, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  43. George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard & Simon Price, 2007. "Forecast combination and the Bank of England’s suite of statistical forecasting models," Bank of England working papers 323, Bank of England.
  44. Ahmad, Saad & Civelli, Andrea, 2016. "Globalization and inflation: A threshold investigation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 283-304.
  45. Dong Jin Lee, 2009. "Testing Parameter Stability in Quantile Models: An Application to the U.S. Inflation Process," Working papers 2009-26, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  46. Ercio Muñoz S. & Alfredo Pistelli M., 2010. "¿Tienen los Terremotos un Impacto Inflacionario en el Corto Plazo? Evidencia para una Muestra de Países," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 13(2), pages 113-127, April.
  47. Dotsey, Michael & Fujita, Shigeru & Stark, Tom, 2015. "Do Phillips curves conditionally help to forecast inflation?," Working Papers 15-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  48. Gunes Kamber & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2016. "Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of the Output Gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter," Discussion Papers 2016-09, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  49. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, 02.
  50. Gonzalo Llosa & Shirley Miller, 2004. "Using Additional Information in Estimating the Output Gap in Peru: a Multivariate Unobserved Component Approach," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(1), pages 57-82, January-J.
  51. Jeremy M. Piger & Robert H. Rasche, 2006. "Inflation: do expectations trump the gap?," Working Papers 2006-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  52. Heaton, Chris, 2015. "Testing for multiple-period predictability between serially dependent time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 587-597.
  53. Peter Tillmann, 2009. "The Fed’s perceived Phillips curve: Evidence from individual FOMC forecasts," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200946, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  54. Mésonnier, J-S., 2006. "The Reliability of Macroeconomic Forecasts based on Real Interest Rate Gap Estimates in Real Time: an Assessment for the Euro Area," Working papers 157, Banque de France.
  55. Don H Kim & Athanasios Orphanides, 2007. "The bond market term premium: what is it, and how can we measure it?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
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