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Citations for "The predictive content of the output gap for inflation : resolving in-sample and out-of-sample evidence"

by Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken

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  1. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2007. "Tests of equal predictive ability with real-time data," Research Working Paper RWP 07-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  2. Benkovskis, Konstantins & Caivano, Michele & D’Agostino, Antonello & Dieppe, Alistair & Hurtado, Samuel & Karlsson, Tohmas & Ortega, Eva & Várnai, Tímea, 2011. "Assessing the sensitivity of inflation to economic activity," Working Paper Series 1357, European Central Bank.
  3. Dotsey, Michael & Fujita, Shigeru & Stark, Tom, 2011. "Do Phillips curves conditionally help to forecast inflation?," Working Papers 11-40, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  4. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Brubakk & Anne Sofie Jore, 2006. "Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap," Working Paper 2006/02, Norges Bank.
  5. Bec, F. & Mogliani, M., 2013. "Nowcasting French GDP in Real-Time from Survey Opinions: Information or Forecast Combinations?," Working papers 436, Banque de France.
  6. Tillmann, Peter, 2010. "The Fed's perceived Phillips curve: Evidence from individual FOMC forecasts," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1008-1013, December.
  7. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2007. "Combining forecasts from nested models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Knut Are Aastveit & Tørres G. Trovik, 2008. "Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach," Working Paper 2008/23, Norges Bank.
  9. Troy Matheson, 2006. "Phillips curve forecasting in a small open economy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  10. Mésonnier, J-S., 2006. "The Reliability of Macroeconomic Forecasts based on Real Interest Rate Gap Estimates in Real Time: an Assessment for the Euro Area," Working papers 157, Banque de France.
  11. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips curve inflation forecasts," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 53.
  12. Ayse Kabukcuoglu & Enrique Martínez-García, 2015. "Inflation as a Global Phenomenon—Some Implications for Policy Analysis and Forecasting," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1520, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  13. Dotsey, Michael & Fujita, Shigeru & Stark, Tom, 2015. "Do Phillips curves conditionally help to forecast inflation?," Working Papers 15-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  14. Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2011. "Understanding models' forecasting performance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 158-172, September.
  15. Gonzalo Llosa/Shirley Miller, 2004. "Using additional information in estimating output gap in Peru: a multivariate unobserved component approach," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 243, Econometric Society.
  16. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Working Papers 2008-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  17. Andreas Billmeier, 2006. "Measuring a Roller Coaster: Evidence on the Finnish Output Gap," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 19(2), pages 69-83, Autumn.
  18. Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Emi Mise & Shaun P Vahey, 2007. "Real-time Prediction with UK Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0714, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  19. Lance J. Bachmeier & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Predicting Inflation: Does The Quantity Theory Help?," Departmental Working Papers 200317, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  20. McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
  21. Giacomini, Raffaella & Rossi, Barbara, 2006. "Detecting and predicting forecast breakdowns," Working Paper Series 0638, European Central Bank.
  22. César Calderón & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2010. "What Drives Inflation in the World?," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.), Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks Reserve Bank of Australia.
  23. Ayse Kabukcuoglu & Enrique Martínez-García, 2016. "What Helps Forecast U.S. Inflation?—Mind the Gap!," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1615, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  24. Don H. Kim, 2008. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  25. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min, 2007. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1163-1212, May.
  26. Pablo Pincheira & Andrés Gatty, 2014. "Forecasting Chilean Inflation with International Factors," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 723, Central Bank of Chile.
  27. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, 02.
  28. Kenneth D. West & Todd Clark, 2006. "Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Scott Brave & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2004. "In search of a robust inflation forecast," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 12-31.
  30. Todd E. Clark & Taisuke Nakata, 2008. "Has the behavior of inflation and long-term inflation expectations changed?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 17-50.
  31. Michael W. McCracken & Todd E. Clark, 2003. "The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 183, Society for Computational Economics.
  32. Dong Jin Lee & Jai Hyung Yoon, 2012. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curves in Multiple Quantiles and the Asymmetry of Monetary Policy," Working papers 2012-03, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  33. Gonzalo Llosa & Shirley Miller, 2005. "Using additional information in estimating the output gap in Peru: a multivariate unobserved component approach," Working Papers 2005-004, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  34. Pablo Pincheira & Hernán Rubio, 2010. "The Low Predictive Power of Simple Phillips Curves in Chile: A Real-Time Evaluation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 559, Central Bank of Chile.
  35. Jeremy M. Piger & Robert H. Rasche, 2006. "Inflation: do expectations trump the gap?," Working Papers 2006-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  36. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  37. Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 583-601, June.
  38. Qin, Ting & Enders, Walter, 2008. "In-sample and out-of-sample properties of linear and nonlinear Taylor rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 428-443, March.
  39. Driver, Ciaran & Trapani, Lorenzo & Urga, Giovanni, 2013. "On the use of cross-sectional measures of forecast uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 367-377.
  40. Dong Jin Lee, 2009. "Testing Parameter Stability in Quantile Models: An Application to the U.S. Inflation Process," Working papers 2009-26, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  41. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2010. "Real time estimates of the euro area output gap: reliability and forecasting performance," Working Paper Series 1157, European Central Bank.
  42. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2015. "Nested forecast model comparisons: A new approach to testing equal accuracy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 160-177.
  43. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Wang, Yi-Chiuan, 2013. "Fundamentals, forecast combinations and nominal exchange-rate predictability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 129-145.
  44. Don H. Kim, 2009. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 519-544.
  45. Lee, Dong Jin & Yoon, Jai Hyung, 2016. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in multiple quantiles and the asymmetry of monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 102-114.
  46. Gunes Kamber & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2016. "Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of the Output Gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter," Discussion Papers 2016-09, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  47. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Testing for unconditional predictive ability," Working Papers 2010-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  48. Kapetanios, George & Labhard, Vincent & Price, Simon, 2008. "Forecast combination and the Bank of England's suite of statistical forecasting models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 772-792, July.
  49. Ercio Muñoz S. & Alfredo Pistelli M., 2010. "¿Tienen los Terremotos un Impacto Inflacionario en el Corto Plazo? Evidencia para una Muestra de Países," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 13(2), pages 113-127, April.
  50. Heaton, Chris, 2015. "Testing for multiple-period predictability between serially dependent time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 587-597.
  51. Michał Hulej & Grzegorz Grabek, 2015. "Output gap measure based on survey data," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 200, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  52. Frédérick Demers, 2003. "The Canadian Phillips Curve and Regime Shifting," Staff Working Papers 03-32, Bank of Canada.
  53. Jean-Stéphane MESONNIER, 2007. "The predictive content of the real interest rate gap for macroeconomic variables in the euro area," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 102, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  54. Don H Kim & Athanasios Orphanides, 2007. "The bond market term premium: what is it, and how can we measure it?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
  55. Ahmad, Saad & Civelli, Andrea, 2016. "Globalization and inflation: A threshold investigation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 283-304.
  56. Manzan, Sebastiano & Zerom, Dawit, 2009. "Are Macroeconomic Variables Useful for Forecasting the Distribution of U.S. Inflation?," MPRA Paper 14387, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  57. Nicholas Apergis & Panagiotis G. Artikis, 2016. "Foreign Exchange Risk, Equity Risk Factors and Economic Growth," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 44(4), pages 425-445, December.
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