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Aggregate supply in the United States: recent developments and implications for the conduct of monetary policy

Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Never Say Never
    by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2014-07-07 17:30:38
  2. The FOMC's Prudent Caution
    by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2016-08-15 17:40:46

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Tervala, Juha & Watson, Timothy, 2022. "Hysteresis and fiscal stimulus in a recession," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
  2. Fontanari, Claudia & Palumbo, Antonella & Salvatori, Chiara, 2020. "Potential Output in Theory and Practice: A Revision and Update of Okun's Original Method," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 247-266.
  3. Mikael Juselius & Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mathias Drehmann, 2017. "Monetary Policy, the Financial Cycle, and Ultra-Low Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(3), pages 55-89, September.
  4. de Groot, Oliver & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Nikalexi, Katerina, 2020. "Monetary policy and regional inequality," Working Paper Series 2385, European Central Bank.
  5. Kilian Huber, 2018. "Disentangling the Effects of a Banking Crisis: Evidence from German Firms and Counties," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(3), pages 868-898, March.
  6. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo & John M. Roberts, 2016. "When Can Trend-Cycle Decompositions Be Trusted?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-099, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Ian Goldin & Pantelis Koutroumpis & François Lafond & Julian Winkler, 2024. "Why Is Productivity Slowing Down?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 196-268, March.
  8. Fornaro, Luca & Wolf, Martin, 2023. "The scars of supply shocks: Implications for monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 18-36.
  9. Engelbert Stockhammer & Rob Calvert Jump, 2022. "An Estimation of Unemployment Hysteresis," Working Papers PKWP2221, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
  10. Michael Redmond & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2016. "The Lasting Damage from the Financial Crisis to U.S. Productivity," Macro Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-3, March.
  11. Wolfgang Lechthaler & Mewael F. Tesfaselassie, 2025. "Endogenous Growth, Skill Obsolescence, and Optimal Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 21(2), pages 269-307, April.
  12. Engler, Philipp & Tervala, Juha, 2018. "Hysteresis and fiscal policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 39-53.
  13. Beqiraj, Elton & Cao, Qingqing & Minetti, Raoul & Tarquini, Giulio, 2025. "Persistent slumps: Innovation and the credit channel of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
  14. Pedro Clavijo-Cortes, 2023. "Is unemployment hysteretic or structural? A Bayesian model selection approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(6), pages 2837-2866, December.
  15. de Ridder, Maarten, 2016. "Investment in productivity and the long-run effect of financial crises on output," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86180, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  16. Rachael McCririck & Daniel Rees, 2016. "The Slowdown in US Productivity Growth: Breaks and Beliefs," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2016-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  17. Peter D. Williams & Mr. Yasser Abdih & Emanuel Kopp, 2020. "Reading the Stars," IMF Working Papers 2020/136, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Zwickl, Klara & Disslbacher, Franziska & Stagl, Sigrid, 2016. "Work-sharing for a sustainable economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 246-253.
  19. Belke Ansgar, 2018. "Secular Stagnation, Unemployment Hysteresis and Monetary Policy in EMU: Scratches but Not Scars?," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
  20. Janet L. Yellen, 2015. "Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy : A speech at the Philip Gamble Memorial Lecture, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, September 24, 2015," Speech 863, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  21. Mengheng Li & Ivan Mendieta‐Muñoz, 2020. "Are long‐run output growth rates falling?," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(1), pages 204-234, February.
  22. Jerome H. Powell, 2020. "Current Economic Issues : A Speech at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C. (via webcast), May 13, 2020," Speech 87971, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  23. Uchechukwu Jarrett & Hamid Mohtadi, 2023. "Understanding the globalization‐crisis linkage: A “differenced” approach," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1616-1640, November.
  24. Ricardo Nunes & Jinill Kim & Jesper Linde & Davide Debortoli, 2014. "Designing a Simple Loss Function for the Fed: Does the Dual Mandate Make Sense?," 2014 Meeting Papers 1043, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  25. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51.
  26. Janice C. Eberly & James H. Stock & Jonathan H. Wright, 2020. "The Federal Reserve's Current Framework for Monetary Policy: A Review and Assessment," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(1), pages 5-71, February.
  27. John G. Fernald & Robert E. Hall & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2017. "The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 1-81.
  28. Mitra, Aruni & Wei, Mengying, 2025. "Long shadow of the U.S. mortgage expansion: Evidence from local labour markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
  29. Burns,Andrew,Jooste,Charl,Schwerhoff,Gregor, 2021. "Climate Modeling for Macroeconomic Policy : A Case Study for Pakistan," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9780, The World Bank.
  30. Andrea Ajello & Isabel Cairó & Vasco Curdia & Thomas A. Lubik & Albert Queraltó, 2020. "Monetary Policy Tradeoffs and the Federal Reserve's Dual Mandate," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-066, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  31. Stephanie R. Aaronson & Mary C. Daly & William L. Wascher & David W. Wilcox, 2019. "Okun Revisited: Who Benefits Most from a Strong Economy?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 333-404.
  32. Daniele Girardi & Riccardo Pariboni, 2020. "Autonomous demand and the investment share," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 8(3), pages 428-453, July.
  33. Lorenzo Di Domenico & Santiago José Gahn & Davide Romaniello, 2024. "Testing the Waters of Positive Hysteresis: The Effects of Autonomous Demand Shocks on Inflation, Accumulation, and Labor in the US Economy," Centro Sraffa Working Papers CSWP64, Centro di Ricerche e Documentazione 'Piero Sraffa'.
  34. Bruce Fallick & Pawel Krolikowski, 2022. "Excess Persistence in Employment of Disadvantaged Workers," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(4), pages 1-52, October.
  35. Patrik Barisic & Tibor Kovac, 2022. "The effectiveness of the fiscal policy response to COVID-19 through the lens of short and long run labor market effects of COVID-19 measures," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 46(1), pages 43-81.
  36. Todd Messer & Michael Siemer & Francois Gourio, 2016. "A Missing Generation of Firms? Aggregate Effects of the Decline in New Business Formation," 2016 Meeting Papers 752, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  37. Michael T. Kiley, 2024. "Monetary Policy, Employment Shortfalls, and the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-032, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  38. Janet L. Yellen, 2017. "Inflation, uncertainty, and monetary policy," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 52(4), pages 194-207, October.
  39. Nakata, Taisuke & Ogaki, Ryota & Schmidt, Sebastian & Yoo, Paul, 2019. "Attenuating the forward guidance puzzle: Implications for optimal monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 90-106.
  40. Gabriel P. Mathy, 2015. "Hysteresis and Persistent Long-Term Unemployment: Lessons from the Great Depression and World War II," Working Papers 2015-02, American University, Department of Economics.
  41. G Dosi & M C Pereira & A Roventini & M E Virgillito, 2018. "Causes and consequences of hysteresis: aggregate demand, productivity, and employment," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 27(6), pages 1015-1044.
  42. Felipe Alves, 2022. "Job Ladder and Business Cycles," Staff Working Papers 22-14, Bank of Canada.
  43. Narek Ghazaryan, 2014. "Short Term Forecasting System of Private Demand Components in Armenia," Working Papers 3, Central Bank of Armenia, revised Dec 2015.
  44. Norman H. Sedgley & John D. Burger & Kerry M. Tan, 2019. "The symmetry and cyclicality of R&D spending in advanced economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 1811-1828, November.
  45. Michael T. Kiley, 2020. "Pandemic Recession Dynamics: The Role of Monetary Policy in Shifting a U-Shaped Recession to a V-Shaped Rebound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-083, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  46. William D. Craighead, 2019. "Hysteresis In A New Keynesian Model," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(2), pages 1082-1097, April.
  47. Petrella, Ivan & Drechsel, Thomas & Antolin-Diaz, Juan, 2014. "Following the Trend: Tracking GDP when Long-Run Growth is Uncertain," CEPR Discussion Papers 10272, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  48. Gillman, Max & Benk, Szilard & Csabafi, Tamas, 2023. "Supply-side economics with AS-AD in Ramsey dynamic general equilibrium," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 505-531.
  49. Han, Yang & Liu, Zehao & Ma, Jun, 2020. "Growth cycles and business cycles of the Chinese economy through the lens of the unobserved components model," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  50. Garga, Vaishali & Singh, Sanjay R., 2021. "Output hysteresis and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 871-886.
  51. Davide Debortoli & Jinill Kim & Jesper Lindé & Ricardo Nunes, 2019. "Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks: Does a Dual Mandate Make Sense?," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(621), pages 2010-2038.
  52. Antonio Fatás, 2019. "Fiscal Policy, Potential Output, and the Shifting Goalposts," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(3), pages 684-702, September.
  53. Janet L. Yellen, 2017. "Inflation, Uncertainty, and Monetary Policy : a speech at the \"Prospects for Growth: Reassessing the Fundamentals\" 59th Annual Meeting of the National Association for Business Economics, Cleveland, Ohio. September 26, 2017," Speech 971, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  54. Manuel González-Astudillo & John M. Roberts, 2022. "When are trend–cycle decompositions of GDP reliable?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2417-2460, May.
  55. Stefano Piserà & Luca Gandullia & Claudia Girardone, 2025. "Do responsible practices lead to higher firm productivity? Evidence from Europe," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 2186-2214, July.
  56. Kang, Kee-Youn & Jang, Inkee, 2020. "Dynamic Adverse Selection and Belief Update in Credit Markets," MPRA Paper 99071, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  57. Albi Tola & Sébastien Waelti, 2018. "Financial Crises, Output Losses, And The Role Of Structural Reforms," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 761-798, April.
  58. John G. Fernald, 2016. "Reassessing Longer-Run U.S. Growth: How Low?," Working Paper Series 2016-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  59. Ulrike Malmendier & Leslie Sheng Shen, 2024. "Scarred Consumption," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 322-355, January.
  60. Albert Queraltó, 2022. "Monetary Policy in a Model of Growth," International Finance Discussion Papers 1340, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  61. Burger John D. & Sedgley Norman & Tan Kerry M., 2017. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Corporate R&D," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 1-12, June.
  62. Mikael Juselius & Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mathias Drehmann, 2017. "Monetary Policy, the Financial Cycle, and Ultra-Low Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(3), pages 55-89, September.
  63. Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2016. "America's Great Malaise and what to do about it," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 639-648.
  64. Fatás, Antonio & Summers, Lawrence H., 2018. "The permanent effects of fiscal consolidations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 238-250.
  65. Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul & Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat Author-X-Name_First: Piti, 2019. "Monetary policy hysteresis and the financial cycle," BIS Working Papers 817, Bank for International Settlements.
  66. Juan Antolin-Diaz & Thomas Drechsel & Ivan Petrella, 2017. "Tracking the Slowdown in Long-Run GDP Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 343-356, May.
  67. Tervala, Juha, 2021. "Hysteresis and the welfare costs of recessions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 136-144.
  68. Sungyup Chung, 2017. "Age and Gender Group Differences in Employment Responses to Monetary Policy Shock in a Small Open Economy: The Case of Korea," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 207-224, May.
  69. Felipe Alves & Giovanni L. Violante, 2024. "From Micro to Macro Hysteresis: Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy," Staff Working Papers 24-39, Bank of Canada.
  70. Valerie Cerra & Antonio Fatás & Sweta C. Saxena, 2023. "Hysteresis and Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 181-225, March.
  71. Willem Van Zandweghe, 2015. "Monetary Policy Shocks and Aggregate Supply," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 31-56.
  72. Oscar Jorda & Alan Taylor & Sanjay Singh, 2019. "The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy," 2019 Meeting Papers 1307, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  73. M. Deroose & A. Rannenberg & J. Wauters, 2019. "Separating the trend from the cycle : The debate on euro area potential output and implications for monetary policy," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 7-28, September.
  74. Janet L. Yellen, 2016. "Macroeconomic Research After the Crisis : a speech at \"The Elusive 'Great' Recovery: Causes and Implications for Future Business Cycle Dynamics\" 60th annual economic conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Boston, Mass," Speech 915, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  75. Roberta Cardani & Alessia Paccagnini & Stefania Villa, 2015. "Forecasting in a DSGE Model with Banking Intermediation: Evidence from the US," Working Papers 292, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2015.
  76. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2018. "What Anchors for the Natural Rate of Interest?," PIER Discussion Papers 98, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
  77. Giovanni Dosi & Marcelo C. Pereira & Andrea Roventini & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2018. "Causes et consequences of hysteresis : aggregate demand, productivity and employment," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/4h9cnu4n2k8, Sciences Po.
  78. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Williams, John C., 2016. "A wedge in the dual mandate: Monetary policy and long-term unemployment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 5-18.
  79. Peter Hördahl & Jhuvesh Sobrun & Philip Turner, 2016. "Low long-term interest rates as a global phenomenon," BIS Working Papers 574, Bank for International Settlements.
  80. Ali Alichi & Hayk Avetisyan & Douglas Laxton & Shalva Mkhatrishvili & Armen Nurbekyan & Lusine Torosyan & Hou Wang & Armen Nurbekyan & Lusine Torosyan, 2019. "Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis," Working Papers 9, Central Bank of Armenia, revised Aug 2019.
  81. Patrice Ollivaud & Yvan Guillemette & David Turner, 2018. "Investment as a transmission mechanism from weak demand to weak supply and the post-crisis productivity slowdown," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1466, OECD Publishing.
  82. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Richhild Moessner & Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch, 2018. "Computing Long-Term Market Inflation Expectations for Countries without Inflation Expectation Markets," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 77(3), pages 23-48, September.
  83. Lídia Brochier, 2020. "Conflicting‐claims and labour market concerns in a supermultiplier SFC model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 566-603, July.
  84. Beckworth, David, 2017. "Permanent versus temporary monetary base Injections: Implications for past and future Fed Policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PA), pages 110-126.
  85. Alexander Murray, 2017. "What Explains the Post-2004 U.S.Productivity Slowdown?," CSLS Research Reports 2017-05, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
  86. Berger, Tino & Everaert, Gerdie & Vierke, Hauke, 2016. "Testing for time variation in an unobserved components model for the U.S. economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 179-208.
  87. Willem Vanlaer & Samantha Bielen & Wim Marneffe, 2020. "Consumer Confidence and Household Saving Behaviors: A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 147(2), pages 677-721, January.
  88. Wolfgang Lechthaler & Mewael F. Tesfaselassie, 2023. "Endogenous Growth, Skill Obsolescence, and Output Hysteresis in a New Keynesian Model with Unemployment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(8), pages 2187-2213, December.
  89. Meng, Xiangcai & Huang, Chia-Hsing, 2021. "The time-frequency analysis of conventional and unconventional monetary policy: Evidence from Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
  90. Maciej Ryczkowski, 2016. "Poland as an inflation nutter:The story of successful output stabilization," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 34(2), pages 363-392.
  91. Zeynep Kabukcuoglu, 2019. "The cyclical behavior of R&D investment during the Great Recession," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 301-323, January.
  92. Luo, Sui & Startz, Richard, 2014. "Is it one break or ongoing permanent shocks that explains U.S. real GDP?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 155-163.
  93. Giovanni Dosi & Marcelo Pereira & Andrea Roventini & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2018. "Causes et consequences of hysteresis : aggregate demand, productivity and employment," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/hiaqa97n684, Sciences Po.
  94. Pinchetti, Marco, 2020. "What Is Driving The TFP Slowdown? Insights From a Schumpeterian DSGE Model," MPRA Paper 98316, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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