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Synthetic Control Method: Inference, Sensitivity Analysis and Confidence Sets

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Cited by:

  1. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Mohammad Ali Kadivar, 2023. "The effect of Islamic revolution and war on income inequality in Iran," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 1007-1026, August.
  2. Giovanni Peri & Derek Rury & Justin C. Wiltshire, 2024. "The Economic Impact of Migrants from Hurricane Maria," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 59(6), pages 1795-1829.
  3. Maria Angélica Bautista & Felipe González & Luis R. Martínez & Pablo Muñoz & Mounu Prem, 2020. "Chile's Missing Students: Dictatorship, Higher Education and Social Mobility," HiCN Working Papers 329, Households in Conflict Network.
  4. Aleksandar Kešeljević & Rok Spruk, 2024. "Estimating the effects of Syrian civil war," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 671-703, February.
  5. Julia Bluszcz & Marica Valente, 2022. "The Economic Costs of Hybrid Wars: The Case of Ukraine," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 1-25, January.
  6. Eli Ben-Michael & Avi Feller & Jesse Rothstein, 2021. "The Augmented Synthetic Control Method," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 116(536), pages 1789-1803, October.
  7. Robbert Maseland & Rok Spruk, 2023. "The benefits of US statehood: an analysis of the growth effects of joining the USA," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 17(1), pages 49-89, January.
  8. Nadine McCloud & Ajornie Taylor, 2022. "Does inflation targeting matter for international trade? A synthetic control analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(5), pages 2427-2478, November.
  9. Nuno Garoupa & Rok Spruk, 2025. "Revolutions as Structural Breaks: The Long-Term Economic and Institutional Consequences of the 1979 Iranian Revolution," Papers 2505.02425, arXiv.org.
  10. Nuno Garoupa & Rok Spruk, 2024. "Populist Constitutional Backsliding and Judicial Independence: Evidence from Turkiye," Papers 2410.02439, arXiv.org.
  11. Dmitry Arkhangelsky & Susan Athey & David A. Hirshberg & Guido W. Imbens & Stefan Wager, 2021. "Synthetic Difference-in-Differences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(12), pages 4088-4118, December.
  12. Bruno Ferman & Cristine Pinto & Vitor Possebom, 2020. "Cherry Picking with Synthetic Controls," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 510-532, March.
  13. Billy Ferguson & Brad Ross, 2020. "Assessing the Sensitivity of Synthetic Control Treatment Effect Estimates to Misspecification Error," Papers 2012.15367, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
  14. Niklas Potrafke & Kaspar Wuthrich, 2020. "Green governments," Papers 2012.09906, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.
  15. Bruno Ferman & Gaute Torsvik & Kjell Vaage, 2023. "Skipping the doctor: evidence from a case with extended self-certification of paid sick leave," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(2), pages 935-971, April.
  16. Stefan Pichler & Nicolas R. Ziebarth, 2020. "Labor Market Effects of U.S. Sick Pay Mandates," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 55(2), pages 611-659.
  17. Ando Michihito & Furuichi Masato & Kaneko Yoshihiro, 2021. "Does universal long-term care insurance boost female labor force participation? Macro-level evidence," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 11(1), pages 1-50, May.
  18. Thomas Barnebeck Andersen, 2023. "The Cost of a Currency Peg during the Great Recession," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 255-279, April.
  19. María Angélica Bautista & Felipe González & Luis R. Martínez & Pablo Muñoz & Mounu Prem, 2025. "Dictatorship, Higher Education, and Social Mobility," Journal of Historical Political Economy, now publishers, vol. 4(4), pages 509-545, February.
  20. Pier Basaglia & Sophie M. Behr & Moritz A. Drupp & Piero Basaglia, 2023. "De-Fueling Externalities: Causal Effects of Fuel Taxation and Mediating Mechanisms for Reducing Climate and Pollution Costs," CESifo Working Paper Series 10508, CESifo.
  21. Victor Chernozhukov & Kaspar Wuthrich & Yinchu Zhu, 2018. "Debiasing and $t$-tests for synthetic control inference on average causal effects," Papers 1812.10820, arXiv.org, revised May 2025.
  22. Rok Spruk, Mitja Kovac, Nuno Garoupa, 2024. "The boulevard of broken dreams? Long-run effects of labor-managed socialism," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 21(2), pages 167-210, December.
  23. Matej Opatrny, 2021. "The impact of the Brexit vote on UK financial markets: a synthetic control method approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 559-587, May.
  24. Christopher Hartwell & Roman Horvath & Eva Horvathova & Olga Popova, 2022. "Natural resources and income inequality in developed countries: synthetic control method evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 297-338, February.
  25. Doerr, Luisa & Dorn, Florian & Gaebler, Stefanie & Potrafke, Niklas, 2020. "How new airport infrastructure promotes tourism: evidence from a synthetic control approach in German regions," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 54(10), pages 1402-1412.
  26. Maximiliano Marzetti & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Long-Term Economic Effects of Populist Legal Reforms: Evidence from Argentina," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(1), pages 60-95, March.
  27. Fernando Alvarez & David Argente, 2022. "On the Effects of the Availability of Means of Payments: The Case of Uber," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(3), pages 1737-1789.
  28. Yihong Xu & Quan Zhou, 2025. "Bayesian Synthetic Control with a Soft Simplex Constraint," Papers 2503.06454, arXiv.org.
  29. Diego Zambiasi & Steven Stillman, 2020. "The Pot Rush: Is Legalized Marijuana A Positive Local Amenity?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(2), pages 667-679, April.
  30. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2023. "Years of life lost to revolution and war in Iran," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(4), pages 2061-2103, November.
  31. Victor Chernozhukov & Kaspar Wüthrich & Yinchu Zhu, 2021. "An Exact and Robust Conformal Inference Method for Counterfactual and Synthetic Controls," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 116(536), pages 1849-1864, October.
  32. Marco Francesconi & Jonathan James, 2022. "Alcohol Price Floors and Externalities: The Case of Fatal Road Crashes," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 1118-1156, September.
  33. Giulio Grossi, 2023. "The policy is always greener: impact heterogeneity of Covid-19 vaccination lotteries in the US," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 32(4), pages 1351-1375, October.
  34. David Gilchrist & Thomas Emery & Nuno Garoupa & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Synthetic Control Method: A tool for comparative case studies in economic history," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 409-445, April.
  35. Justin C. Wiltshire, 2023. "Walmart Supercenters and Monopsony Power: How A Large, Low-Wage Employer Impacts Local Labor Markets," Department Discussion Papers 2304, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  36. Priscila Espinosa & Daniel Aparicio-Pérez & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2023. "On the Impact of Next Generation EU Funds: A Regional Synthetic Control Method Approach," Working Papers 2023/07, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
  37. Demirci, Murat, 2023. "Youth responses to political populism: Education abroad as a step toward emigration," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 653-673.
  38. Christian F. Pfeil & Lars P. Feld, 2024. "Does the Swiss Debt Brake Induce Sound Federal Finances? A Synthetic Control Analysis," Public Finance Review, , vol. 52(1), pages 3-41, January.
  39. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Sven Fischer, 2025. "The impact of a large-scale natural disaster on local economic activity: evidence from the 2003 Bam earthquake in Iran," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 68(3), pages 1409-1428, March.
  40. Giovanni Cerulli & Silvia Nenci & Luca Salvatici & Antonio Zinilli, 2022. "Currency Unions and Global Value Chains: The Impact of the Euro on the Italian Value Added Exports," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 8(2), pages 373-407, July.
  41. Barros, Fernando & Delalibera, Bruno R. & Neto, Valdemar Pinho & Rodrigues, Victor, 2022. "Bonus for firearms seizures and police performance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
  42. Keller, Michael, 2022. "Oil revenues vs domestic taxation: Deeper insights into the crowding-out effect," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  43. Ho, Anson T.Y. & Huynh, Kim P. & Jacho-Chávez, David T. & Vallée, Geneviève, 2023. "We didn’t start the fire: Effects of a natural disaster on consumers’ financial distress," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
  44. Gaughan, James & Gutacker, Nils & Grašič, Katja & Kreif, Noemi & Siciliani, Luigi & Street, Andrew, 2019. "Paying for efficiency: Incentivising same-day discharges in the English NHS," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
  45. Fernando Martin Mayoral & Carlos Andrés Rivera Lasso, 2025. "From Conflict to Prosperity: The Economic Impact of the Colombian Peace Agreements," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 758-772, April.
  46. Boxell, Levi & Steinert-Threlkeld, Zachary, 2022. "Taxing dissent: The impact of a social media tax in Uganda," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
  47. Rodrigo Luz Barcellos & Daniel de Abreu Pereira Uhr & Eliana Lemos Crestani & Lígia Mori Madeira & Marcelo Nogueira Cortimiglia, 2025. "The impact of innovation policies on scientometric indicators: a study through the combination of punctuated equilibrium theory and synthetic control method," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 130(4), pages 2185-2212, April.
  48. Giovanni Mellace & Alessandra Pasquini, 2019. "Identify More, Observe Less: Mediation Analysis Synthetic Control," CEIS Research Paper 474, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 20 Nov 2019.
  49. Jianghao Wang & Yichun Fan & Juan Palacios & Yuchen Chai & Nicolas Guetta-Jeanrenaud & Nick Obradovich & Chenghu Zhou & Siqi Zheng, 2022. "Global evidence of expressed sentiment alterations during the COVID-19 pandemic," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(3), pages 349-358, March.
  50. Ignacio Martinez & Jaume Vives-i-Bastida, 2022. "Bayesian and Frequentist Inference for Synthetic Controls," Papers 2206.01779, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.
  51. Aguilar, Arturo & Gutierrez, Emilio & Seira, Enrique, 2021. "The effectiveness of sin food taxes: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  52. Ikeme, Sionegael & Han, Doo Bong, 2021. "The Impacts of the EU Integration on Food Production in Baltic Countries," 2021 Annual Meeting, August 1-3, Austin, Texas 313989, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  53. Emery Thomas J. & Kovac Mitja & Spruk Rok, 2023. "Estimating the Effects of Political Instability in Nascent Democracies," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 243(6), pages 599-642, December.
  54. McCloud, Nadine, 2024. "What has inflation targeting done for household consumption?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PC).
  55. Davide Viviano & Jelena Bradic, 2019. "Synthetic learner: model-free inference on treatments over time," Papers 1904.01490, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
  56. Stefano, Roberta di & Mellace, Giovanni, 2020. "The inclusive synthetic control method," Discussion Papers on Economics 14/2020, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
  57. Jakus, Paul M. & Akhundjanov, Sherzod B., 2019. "The Antiquities Act, national monuments, and the regional economy," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 102-117.
  58. Chen, Qiang & Yan, Guanpeng, 2023. "A mixed placebo test for synthetic control method," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
  59. BILAN Yuriy & MISHCHUK Halyna & HRYNKEVYCH Olha & PASLAVSKA Iryna & KICHURCHAK Marianna, 2024. "Examining Tertiary Education Amid the War in Ukraine: A Synthetic Control Approach," European Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Bucharest Economic Academy, issue 02, June.
  60. Zheng, Shanshan & Wang, Derek D., 2024. "The local economic impacts of mega nuclear accident: A synthetic control analysis of Fukushima," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
  61. Nadine McCloud, 2022. "Does domestic investment respond to inflation targeting? A synthetic control investigation," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 98-134.
  62. Mellace, Giovanni & Pasquini, Alessandra, 2019. "Identify More, Observe Less: Mediation Analysis: Mediation Analysis Synthetic Control," Discussion Papers on Economics 12/2019, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
  63. Hassan Darabi & Hadis Kordani & Ardeshir JamshidAbadi, 2022. "Flood anticipation, reality, and uncertainty, the 2019 flood in Khuzestan, Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(1), pages 365-381, August.
  64. Andrii Melnychuk, 2024. "Synthetic Controls with spillover effects: A comparative study," Papers 2405.01645, arXiv.org.
  65. Klößner, Stefan & Pfeifer, Gregor, 2015. "Synthesizing Cash for Clunkers: Stabilizing the Car Market, Hurting the Environment," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113207, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  66. Li, Bojing & Sato, Takeshi & Kawasaki, Kentaro & Suzuki, Nobuhiro, 2024. "Effects of Organic Equivalence Agreements on Organic Production: Evidence from the Synthetic Control Method," Japanese Journal of Agricultural Economics (formerly Japanese Journal of Rural Economics), Agricultural Economics Society of Japan (AESJ), vol. 26.
  67. Ferman, Bruno, 2021. "Matching estimators with few treated and many control observations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 295-307.
  68. Jianfei Cao & Shirley Lu, 2019. "Synthetic Control Inference for Staggered Adoption: Estimating the Dynamic Effects of Board Gender Diversity Policies," Papers 1912.06320, arXiv.org.
  69. Gabriel, Ricardo Duque & Pessoa, Ana Sofia, 2024. "Adopting the euro: A synthetic control approach," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
  70. Goryunov, Alexander & Ageshina, Elena & Lavrentev, Igor & Peretyatko, Polina, 2023. "Estimating the effect of Russia’s development policy in the Far Eastern region: The synthetic control approach," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 72, pages 58-72.
  71. Chiara Natalie Focacci & Mitja Kovac & Rok Spruk, 2022. "The perils of Kremlin's influence: evidence from Ukraine," Papers 2206.04950, arXiv.org.
  72. Niklas Potrafke & Luisa Dörr & Klaus Gründler & Tuuli Tähtinen & Luisa Dörr, 2025. "Female Leaders and the Representation of Women in Government," CESifo Working Paper Series 11851, CESifo.
  73. Billy, Alexander & Packard, Michael, 2022. "Crime and the Mariel Boatlift," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
  74. Victor Chernozhukov & Kaspar Wüthrich & Yinchu Zhu, 2019. "Inference on average treatment effects in aggregate panel data settings," CeMMAP working papers CWP32/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  75. Hagemejer Jan & Michałek Jan J. & Svatko Pavel, 2021. "Economic impact of the EU Eastern enlargement on New Member States revisited: The role of economic institutions," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 8(55), pages 126-143, January.
  76. Pier Basaglia & Sophie M. Behr & Moritz A. Drupp, 2023. "De-Fueling Externalities: How Tax Salience and Fuel Substitution Mediate Climate and Health Benefits," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2041, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  77. Xiaowu Dai & Saad Mouti & Marjorie Lima do Vale & Sumantra Ray & Jeffrey Bohn & Lisa Goldberg, 2025. "A Resampling Approach for Causal Inference on Novel Two-Point Time-Series with Application to Identify Risk Factors for Type-2 Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease," Statistics in Biosciences, Springer;International Chinese Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 78-131, April.
  78. Alberto Abadie & Jinglong Zhao, 2021. "Synthetic Controls for Experimental Design," Papers 2108.02196, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2025.
  79. Julia Bluszcz & Marica Valente, 2019. "The War in Europe: Economic Costs of the Ukrainian Conflict," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1804, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  80. Tanaya Devi & Roland G. Fryer Jr, 2020. "Policing the Police: The Impact of "Pattern-or-Practice" Investigations on Crime," NBER Working Papers 27324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  81. Justin Wiltshire, 2021. "allsynth: Synthetic control bias-corrections utilities for Stata," 2021 Stata Conference 15, Stata Users Group.
  82. Andre Gbato & Falapalaki Lemou & Jean-François Brun, 2021. "Effectiveness of SARA reform in sub-Saharan Africa [Efficacité de la réforme des SARA en Afrique subsaharienne]," Working Papers hal-03119001, HAL.
  83. Giulio Grossi & Marco Mariani & Alessandra Mattei & Patrizia Lattarulo & Ozge Oner, 2020. "Direct and spillover effects of a new tramway line on the commercial vitality of peripheral streets. A synthetic-control approach," Papers 2004.05027, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
  84. Sang‐Wook (Stanley) Cho & Hansoo Choi, 2025. "Unlocking the impact of US free trade agreements on industries with a synthetic control approach," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 58(2), pages 716-746, May.
  85. Samuel Verevis & Murat Üngör, 2021. "What has New Zealand gained from The FTA with China?: Two counterfactual analyses†," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 20-50, February.
  86. Viviano, Davide & Bradic, Jelena, 2023. "Synthetic Learner: Model-free inference on treatments over time," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 691-713.
  87. repec:osf:socarx:fc9xt_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
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