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VancUber: The long‐run effect of ride‐hailing on public transportation, congestion, and traffic fatalities

Author

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  • John Cairncross
  • Jonathan D. Hall
  • Craig Palsson

Abstract

We investigate the long‐run effect of ride‐hailing on public transit ridership, traffic congestion, and traffic fatalities. We estimate the long‐run effect by exploiting British Columbia's use of a pre‐existing regulation in 2013 to ban ride‐hailing from Vancouver. Using difference‐in‐differences, we show that the estimated effects are sensitive to the choice of control group. Motivated by this, we use the synthetic control method to construct a counterfactual Vancouver. We do not find a statistically significant effect of ride‐hailing on our outcomes. To help understand these findings, we conduct a meta‐analysis. We find significant heterogeneity in the literature's estimates, but the average estimate is near zero. VancUber : L'effet à long terme du covoiturage sur les transports publics, la congestion et les accidents mortels. Nous étudions l'effet à long terme du covoiturage sur l'utilisation du transport public, la congestion routière et les accidents mortels de la circulation. Nous estimons l'effet à long terme en nous appuyant sur l'utilisation par la Colombie‐Britannique d'une réglementation préexistante, en 2013, pour interdire le covoiturage à partir de Vancouver. Grâce à la méthode des doubles différences, nous montrons que le choix du groupe de contrôle a une incidence sur les effets estimés. C'est pourquoi nous utilisons la méthode du contrôle synthétique pour construire un Vancouver contrefactuel. Nous ne trouvons pas d'effet statistiquement significatif du covoiturage sur nos résultats. Nous avons réalisé une méta‐analyse pour aider à comprendre ces résultats. Nous constatons une hétérogénéité importante dans les estimations de la littérature, mais l'estimation moyenne est proche de zéro.

Suggested Citation

  • John Cairncross & Jonathan D. Hall & Craig Palsson, 2025. "VancUber: The long‐run effect of ride‐hailing on public transportation, congestion, and traffic fatalities," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 58(3), pages 892-939, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:canjec:v:58:y:2025:i:3:p:892-939
    DOI: 10.1111/caje.70023
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    References listed on IDEAS

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