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Policing the Police: The Impact of "Pattern-or-Practice" Investigations on Crime

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  • Tanaya Devi
  • Roland G. Fryer Jr

Abstract

This paper provides the first empirical examination of the impact of federal and state "Pattern-or-Practice" investigations on crime and policing. For investigations that were not preceded by "viral" incidents of deadly force, investigations, on average, led to a statistically significant reduction in homicides and total crime. In stark contrast, all investigations that were preceded by "viral" incidents of deadly force have led to a large and statistically significant increase in homicides and total crime. We estimate that these investigations caused almost 900 excess homicides and almost 34,000 excess felonies. The leading hypothesis for why these investigations increase homicides and total crime is an abrupt change in the quantity of policing activity. In Chicago, the number of police-civilian interactions decreased by almost 90% in the month after the investigation was announced. In Riverside CA, interactions decreased 54%. In St. Louis, self-initiated police activities declined by 46%. Other theories we test such as changes in community trust or the aggressiveness of consent decrees associated with investigations -- all contradict the data in important ways.

Suggested Citation

  • Tanaya Devi & Roland G. Fryer Jr, 2020. "Policing the Police: The Impact of "Pattern-or-Practice" Investigations on Crime," NBER Working Papers 27324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27324
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Pyrooz, David C. & Decker, Scott H. & Wolfe, Scott E. & Shjarback, John A., 2016. "Was there a Ferguson Effect on crime rates in large U.S. cities?," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-8.
    3. Shjarback, John A. & Pyrooz, David C. & Wolfe, Scott E. & Decker, Scott H., 2017. "De-policing and crime in the wake of Ferguson: Racialized changes in the quantity and quality of policing among Missouri police departments," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 42-52.
    4. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    5. Nix, Justin & Pickett, Justin T., 2017. "Third-person perceptions, hostile media effects, and policing: Developing a theoretical framework for assessing the Ferguson effect," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 24-33.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lieberman, Carl, 2024. "Variation in racial disparities in police use of force," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    2. Edward L. Glaeser, 2021. "Urban Resilience," NBER Working Papers 29261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Anthony A. Braga & Philip J. Cook & Stephen Douglas, 2022. "Prevention Strategies for Policing Gun Violence," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 704(1), pages 158-180, November.
    4. Nicola Mastrorocco & Arianna Ornaghi, 2020. "Who Watches the Watchmen? Local News and Police Behavior in the United States," Trinity Economics Papers tep0720, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2020.
    5. LeRoy, William, 2024. "Understanding policing in the aftermath of gun violence: Examining investigatory stops and crime in Chicago," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    6. Pradhi Aggarwal & Alec Brandon & Ariel Goldszmidt & Justin Holz & John List & Ian Muir & Gregory Sun & Thomas Yu, 2022. "High-frequency location data shows that race affects the likelihood of being stopped and fined for speeding," Natural Field Experiments 00764, The Field Experiments Website.
    7. Campbell, Travis, 2024. "Black Lives Matter’s effect on police lethal use of force," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    8. Desmond Ang & Panka Bencsik & Jesse Bruhn & Ellora Derenoncourt, 2023. "Shots Fired: Crime and Community Engagement with Law Enforcement after High-profile Acts of Police Violence," Working Papers 315, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    9. Vasudha Jain & Mark Whitmeyer, 2021. "Whose Bias?," Papers 2111.10335, arXiv.org.
    10. Noray, Kadeem, 2024. "Police brutality, law enforcement, and crime: Evidence from Chicago," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J0 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • K10 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - General (Constitutional Law)

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