IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocawp/23-15.html

We Didn’t Start the Fire: Effects of a Natural Disaster on Consumers’ Financial Distress

Author

Listed:
  • Anson T. Y. Ho
  • Kim Huynh
  • David T. Jacho-Chávez
  • Geneviève Vallée

Abstract

Global climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of natural disasters. We use detailed consumer credit data to investigate the impact of the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire, the costliest wildfire disaster in Canadian history, on consumers’ financial stress. We focus on the arrears of insured mortgages because of their important implications for financial institutions and insurers’ business risk and relevant management practices. Our findings suggest that wildfires have caused more mortgage arrears in severely damaged areas, with both economic and statistical significance. For other areas with relatively minor damage, the increase in arrears is small and statistically insignificant.

Suggested Citation

  • Anson T. Y. Ho & Kim Huynh & David T. Jacho-Chávez & Geneviève Vallée, 2023. "We Didn’t Start the Fire: Effects of a Natural Disaster on Consumers’ Financial Distress," Staff Working Papers 23-15, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:23-15
    DOI: 10.34989/swp-2023-15
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.34989/swp-2023-15
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/swp2023-15.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.34989/swp-2023-15?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Morse, Adair, 2011. "Payday lenders: Heroes or villains?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 28-44, October.
    2. Jean-Noël Barrot & Julien Sauvagnat, 2016. "Input Specificity and the Propagation of Idiosyncratic Shocks in Production Networks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(3), pages 1543-1592.
    3. Jeffrey A. Groen & Mark J. Kutzbach & Anne E. Polivka, 2020. "Storms and Jobs: The Effect of Hurricanes on Individuals’ Employment and Earnings over the Long Term," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38(3), pages 653-685.
    4. Anson T. Y. Ho & Lealand Morin & Harry J. Paarsch & Kim P. Huynh, 2022. "Consumer credit usage in Canada during the coronavirus pandemic," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 88-114, February.
    5. Christian Gollier, 2014. "Discounting and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 534-537, May.
    6. Olga Bilyk & Anson T. Y. Ho & Mikael Khan & Geneviève Vallée, 2020. "Household indebtedness risks in the wake of COVID‑19," Staff Analytical Notes 2020-8, Bank of Canada.
    7. Justin Gallagher & Daniel Hartley, 2017. "Household Finance after a Natural Disaster: The Case of Hurricane Katrina," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 199-228, August.
    8. Olga Bilyk & Maria teNyenhuis, 2018. "The Impact of Recent Policy Changes on the Canadian Mortgage Market," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-35, Bank of Canada.
    9. Tatyana Deryugina & Laura Kawano & Steven Levitt, 2018. "The Economic Impact of Hurricane Katrina on Its Victims: Evidence from Individual Tax Returns," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 202-233, April.
    10. Lewis, Tracy & Nickerson, David, 1989. "Self-insurance against natural disasters," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 209-223, May.
    11. Bolton, Patrick & Kacperczyk, Marcin, 2021. "Do investors care about carbon risk?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 517-549.
    12. Po-Hsuan Hsu & Hsiao-Hui Lee & Shu-Cing Peng & Long Yi, 2018. "Natural Disasters, Technology Diversity, and Operating Performance," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 619-630, October.
    13. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    14. Kaoru Hosono & Daisuke Miyakawa & Taisuke Uchino & Makoto Hazama & Arito Ono & Hirofumi Uchida & Iichiro Uesugi, 2016. "Natural Disasters, Damage To Banks, And Firm Investment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1335-1370, November.
    15. Flammer, Caroline, 2021. "Corporate green bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 499-516.
    16. Carolyn Kousky & Roger Cooke, 2012. "Explaining the Failure to Insure Catastrophic Risks," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 37(2), pages 206-227, April.
    17. Bruno Ferman & Cristine Pinto & Vitor Possebom, 2020. "Cherry Picking with Synthetic Controls," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 510-532, March.
    18. Carolyn Kousky, 2019. "The Role of Natural Disaster Insurance in Recovery and Risk Reduction," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 399-418, October.
    19. Paudel, Jayash, 2021. "Short-run environmental effects of COVID-19: Evidence from forest fires," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    20. Robert Amano & Marc-André Gosselin & Julien McDonald-Guimond, 2021. "Evolving Temperature Dynamics in Canada: Preliminary Evidence Based on 60 Years of Data," Staff Working Papers 21-22, Bank of Canada.
    21. Firpo Sergio & Possebom Vitor, 2018. "Synthetic Control Method: Inference, Sensitivity Analysis and Confidence Sets," Journal of Causal Inference, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-26, September.
    22. Marshall Burke & John Dykema & David B. Lobell & Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath, 2015. "Incorporating Climate Uncertainty into Estimates of Climate Change Impacts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 461-471, May.
    23. Kellenberg, Derek K. & Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq, 2008. "Does rising income increase or decrease damage risk from natural disasters?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 788-802, May.
    24. Alberto Abadie & Alexis Diamond & Jens Hainmueller, 2015. "Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(2), pages 495-510, February.
    25. Thibaut Duprey & Colin Jones & Callie Symmers & Geneviève Vallée, 2021. "Household financial vulnerabilities and physical climate risks," Staff Analytical Notes 2021-19, Bank of Canada.
    26. Jack Favilukis & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Housing Wealth, Housing Finance, and Limited Risk Sharing in General Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(1), pages 140-223.
    27. Eduardo Cavallo & Sebastian Galiani & Ilan Noy & Juan Pantano, 2013. "Catastrophic Natural Disasters and Economic Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1549-1561, December.
    28. Alberto Abadie, 2021. "Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 391-425, June.
    29. Kelly D. Edmiston, 2017. "Financial Vulnerability and Personal Finance Outcomes of Natural Disasters," Research Working Paper RWP 17-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    30. Megan C. Kirchmeier-Young & Francis W. Zwiers & Nathan P. Gillett & Alex J. Cannon, 2017. "Attributing extreme fire risk in Western Canada to human emissions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 365-379, September.
    31. Kaoru Hosono & Daisuke Miyakawa & Taisuke Uchino & Makoto Hazama & Arito Ono & Hirofumi Uchida & Iichiro Uesugi, 2016. "Natural Disasters, Damage To Banks, And Firm Investment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57, pages 1335-1370, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Allen, Thomas & Boullot, Mathieu & Dées, Stéphane & de Gaye, Annabelle & Lisack, Noëmie & Thubin, Camille & Wegner, Oriane, 2025. "Using short-term scenarios to assess the macroeconomic impacts of climate transition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    2. Chen, Yujia & Ding, Zhenghong & Barbaglia, Luca & Calabrese, Raffaella & Fatica, Serena, 2026. "A climate stress testing exercise on loans to European small and medium enterprises," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    3. Justin Contat & Carrie Hopkins & Luis Mejia & Matthew Suandi, 2024. "When climate meets real estate: A survey of the literature," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 52(3), pages 618-659, May.
    4. Stefano Clò & Francesco David & Samuele Segoni, 2024. "The impact of hydrogeological events on firms: evidence from Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1451, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Zanin, Luca & Calabrese, Raffaella & Thorburn, Connor Innes, 2024. "Climate stress testing for mortgage default probability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    6. Dong, Kangyin & Zhao, Congyu & Nepal, Rabindra & Zander, Kerstin K., 2025. "Are natural disasters stumbling blocks to carbon inequality mitigation? A global perspective," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    7. Clò, Stefano & David, Francesco & Segoni, Samuele, 2024. "The impact of hydrogeological events on firms: Evidence from Italy," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. McCloud, Nadine & Ivey, Wendel & Taylor, Ajornie, 2026. "The workforce paradox: Do extreme natural disasters accelerate or undermine labour productivity?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    2. Maximiliano Marzetti & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Long-Term Economic Effects of Populist Legal Reforms: Evidence from Argentina," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(1), pages 60-95, March.
    3. Pier Basaglia & Sophie M. Behr & Moritz A. Drupp & Piero Basaglia, 2023. "De-Fueling Externalities: Causal Effects of Fuel Taxation and Mediating Mechanisms for Reducing Climate and Pollution Costs," CESifo Working Paper Series 10508, CESifo.
    4. David Gilchrist & Thomas Emery & Nuno Garoupa & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Synthetic Control Method: A tool for comparative case studies in economic history," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 409-445, April.
    5. Pier Basaglia & Sophie M. Behr & Moritz A. Drupp, 2023. "De-Fueling Externalities: How Tax Salience and Fuel Substitution Mediate Climate and Health Benefits," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2041, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Garoupa, Nuno & Spruk, Rok, 2025. "Populist constitutional backsliding and judicial independence: Evidence from Türkiye," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    7. Piero Basaglia & Sophie M. Behr & Moritz A. Drupp, 2025. "Fuel Taxation and Environmental Externalities: Evidence from the World’s Largest Environmental Tax Reform," CESifo Working Paper Series 11949, CESifo.
    8. Bruno Ferman & Cristine Pinto & Vitor Possebom, 2020. "Cherry Picking with Synthetic Controls," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 510-532, March.
    9. repec:osf:osfxxx:s8ayp_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Andrii Melnychuk, 2024. "Synthetic Controls with spillover effects: A comparative study," Papers 2405.01645, arXiv.org.
    11. Nuno Garoupa & Rok Spruk, 2025. "Revolutions as structural breaks: the long-term economic and institutional consequences of the 1979 Iranian Revolution," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 273-301, September.
    12. Tomasz Serwach, 2023. "The European Union and within‐country income inequalities. The case of the new member states," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(7), pages 1890-1939, July.
    13. Grier, Kevin & Mahmood, Towhid & Powell, Benjamin, 2023. "Anti-sweatshop activism and the safety-employment tradeoff: Evidence from Bangladesh's Rana Plaza disaster," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 174-190.
    14. Kakuho Furukawa & Hibiki Ichiue & Noriyuki Shiraki, 2020. "How Does Climate Change Interact with the Financial System? A Survey," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 20-E-8, Bank of Japan.
    15. Giulio Grossi, 2023. "The policy is always greener: impact heterogeneity of Covid-19 vaccination lotteries in the US," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 32(4), pages 1351-1375, October.
    16. Tomasz Serwach, 2022. "The European Union and within-country income inequalities. The case of the New Member States," Working Papers hal-03548416, HAL.
    17. Martín-Román, Javier & Martín-Román, Ángel L., 2025. "An Impact Evaluation of the Effects of Income Support Benefits on Aggregate Labour Supply," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1682, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    18. Nathan, Max & Overman, Henry & Riom, Capucine & Sanchez-Vidal, Maria, 2024. "Multipliers from a Major Public Sector Relocation: The BBC Moves to Salford," IZA Discussion Papers 17337, IZA Network @ LISER.
    19. Nadine McCloud, 2022. "Does domestic investment respond to inflation targeting? A synthetic control investigation," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 98-134.
    20. Fernando Martin Mayoral & Carlos Andrés Rivera Lasso, 2025. "From Conflict to Prosperity: The Economic Impact of the Colombian Peace Agreements," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 758-772, April.
    21. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Mohammad Ali Kadivar, 2023. "The effect of Islamic revolution and war on income inequality in Iran," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 1007-1026, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:23-15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.