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Attributing extreme fire risk in Western Canada to human emissions

Author

Listed:
  • Megan C. Kirchmeier-Young

    (University of Victoria
    University of Victoria)

  • Francis W. Zwiers

    (University of Victoria)

  • Nathan P. Gillett

    (University of Victoria)

  • Alex J. Cannon

    (University of Victoria)

Abstract

Canada is expected to see an increase in fire risk under future climate projections. Large fires, such as that near Fort McMurray, Alberta in 2016, can be devastating to the communities affected. Understanding the role of human emissions in the occurrence of such extreme fire events can lend insight into how these events might change in the future. An event attribution framework is used to quantify the influence of anthropogenic forcings on extreme fire risk in the current climate of a western Canada region. Fourteen metrics from the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System are used to define the extreme fire seasons. For the majority of these metrics and during the current decade, the combined effect of anthropogenic and natural forcing is estimated to have made extreme fire risk events in the region 1.5 to 6 times as likely compared to a climate that would have been with natural forcings alone.

Suggested Citation

  • Megan C. Kirchmeier-Young & Francis W. Zwiers & Nathan P. Gillett & Alex J. Cannon, 2017. "Attributing extreme fire risk in Western Canada to human emissions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 365-379, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:144:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-017-2030-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2030-0
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhongwei Liu & Jonathan M. Eden & Bastien Dieppois & Matthew Blackett, 2022. "A global view of observed changes in fire weather extremes: uncertainties and attribution to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-20, July.
    2. Ho, Anson T.Y. & Huynh, Kim P. & Jacho-Chávez, David T. & Vallée, Geneviève, 2023. "We didn’t start the fire: Effects of a natural disaster on consumers’ financial distress," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    3. Courtney W. Mason & Pate Neumann, 2024. "The Impacts of Climate Change on Tourism Operators, Trail Experience and Land Use Management in British Columbia’s Backcountry," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-16, January.
    4. Shuo Sun & Erica E. M. Moodie & Johanna G. Nešlehová, 2021. "Causal inference for quantile treatment effects," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), June.
    5. Debra J. Davidson & Anthony Fisher & Gwendolyn Blue, 2019. "Missed opportunities: the absence of climate change in media coverage of forest fire events in Alberta," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 165-179, March.
    6. Uma S. Bhatt & Rick T. Lader & John E. Walsh & Peter A. Bieniek & Richard Thoman & Matthew Berman & Cecilia Borries-Strigle & Kristi Bulock & Jonathan Chriest & Micah Hahn & Amy S. Hendricks & Randi J, 2021. "Emerging Anthropogenic Influences on the Southcentral Alaska Temperature and Precipitation Extremes and Related Fires in 2019," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-15, January.
    7. Geert Jan Oldenborgh & Karin Wiel & Sarah Kew & Sjoukje Philip & Friederike Otto & Robert Vautard & Andrew King & Fraser Lott & Julie Arrighi & Roop Singh & Maarten Aalst, 2021. "Pathways and pitfalls in extreme event attribution," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-27, May.

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