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Wildfire Suppression Costs for Canada under a Changing Climate

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  • Emily S Hope
  • Daniel W McKenney
  • John H Pedlar
  • Brian J Stocks
  • Sylvie Gauthier

Abstract

Climate-influenced changes in fire regimes in northern temperate and boreal regions will have both ecological and economic ramifications. We examine possible future wildfire area burned and suppression costs using a recently compiled historical (i.e., 1980–2009) fire management cost database for Canada and several Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate projections. Area burned was modelled as a function of a climate moisture index (CMI), and fire suppression costs then estimated as a function of area burned. Future estimates of area burned were generated from projections of the CMI under two emissions pathways for four General Circulation Models (GCMs); these estimates were constrained to ecologically reasonable values by incorporating a minimum fire return interval of 20 years. Total average annual national fire management costs are projected to increase to just under $1 billion (a 60% real increase from the 1980–2009 period) under the low greenhouse gas emissions pathway and $1.4 billion (119% real increase from the base period) under the high emissions pathway by the end of the century. For many provinces, annual costs that are currently considered extreme (i.e., occur once every ten years) are projected to become commonplace (i.e., occur once every two years or more often) as the century progresses. It is highly likely that evaluations of current wildland fire management paradigms will be necessary to avoid drastic and untenable cost increases as the century progresses.

Suggested Citation

  • Emily S Hope & Daniel W McKenney & John H Pedlar & Brian J Stocks & Sylvie Gauthier, 2016. "Wildfire Suppression Costs for Canada under a Changing Climate," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(8), pages 1-18, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0157425
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0157425
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kim, Yeon-Su & Rodrigues, Marcos & Robinne, François-Nicolas, 2021. "Economic drivers of global fire activity: A critical review using the DPSIR framework," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    2. April M. Melvin & Jessica Murray & Brent Boehlert & Jeremy A. Martinich & Lisa Rennels & T. Scott Rupp, 2017. "Estimating wildfire response costs in Alaska’s changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(4), pages 783-795, April.
    3. Esfilar, Reza & Bagheri, Mehdi & Golestani, Behrooz, 2021. "Technoeconomic feasibility review of hybrid waste to energy system in the campus: A case study for the University of Victoria," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    4. Eliott, Martyn G. & Venn, Tyron J. & Lewis, Tom & Farrar, Michael & Srivastava, Sanjeev K., 2021. "A prescribed fire cost model for public lands in south-east Queensland," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    5. Miren Lorente & S. Gauthier & P. Bernier & C. Ste-Marie, 2020. "Tracking forest changes: Canadian Forest Service indicators of climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 1839-1853, December.
    6. Brecka, Aaron F.J. & Shahi, Chander & Chen, Han Y.H., 2018. "Climate change impacts on boreal forest timber supply," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 11-21.

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