IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v138y2016i1d10.1007_s10584-016-1726-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Multi-model ensemble projections of future extreme temperature change using a statistical downscaling method in south eastern Australia

Author

Listed:
  • Bin Wang

    (University of Technology Sydney
    Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute)

  • De Li Liu

    (Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute)

  • Ian Macadam

    (University of New South Wales
    Now at Met Office, FitzRoy Road)

  • Lisa V. Alexander

    (University of New South Wales)

  • Gab Abramowitz

    (University of New South Wales)

  • Qiang Yu

    (University of Technology Sydney)

Abstract

Projections of changes in temperature extremes are critical to assess the potential impacts of climate change on agricultural and ecological systems. Statistical downscaling can be used to efficiently downscale output from a large number of general circulation models (GCMs) to a fine temporal and spatial scale, providing the opportunity for future projections of extreme temperature events. This paper presents an analysis of extreme temperature data downscaled from 7 GCMs selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) using a skill score based on spatial patterns of climatological means of daily maximum and minimum temperature. Data for scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the New South Wales (NSW) wheat belt, south eastern Australia, have been analysed. The results show that downscaled data from most of the GCMs reproduces the correct sign of recent trends in all the extreme temperature indices (except the index for cold days) for 1961–2000. An independence weighted mean method is used to calculate uncertainty estimates, which shows that multi-model ensemble projections produce a consistent trend compared to the observations in most extreme indices. Great warming occurs in the east and northeast of the NSW wheat belt by 2061–2100 and increases the risk of exposure to hot days around wheat flowering date, which might result in farmers needing to reconsider wheat varieties suited to maintain yield. This analysis provides a first overview of projected changes in climate extremes from an ensemble of 7 CMIP5 GCM models with statistical downscaling data in the NSW wheat belt.

Suggested Citation

  • Bin Wang & De Li Liu & Ian Macadam & Lisa V. Alexander & Gab Abramowitz & Qiang Yu, 2016. "Multi-model ensemble projections of future extreme temperature change using a statistical downscaling method in south eastern Australia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 85-98, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:138:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1726-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1726-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-016-1726-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-016-1726-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    2. Boris Orlowsky & Sonia Seneviratne, 2012. "Global changes in extreme events: regional and seasonal dimension," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 669-696, February.
    3. Blair Trewin, 2010. "Exposure, instrumentation, and observing practice effects on land temperature measurements," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(4), pages 490-506, July.
    4. Anwar, Muhuddin Rajin & Liu, De Li & Farquharson, Robert & Macadam, Ian & Abadi, Amir & Finlayson, John & Wang, Bin & Ramilan, Thiagarajah, 2015. "Climate change impacts on phenology and yields of five broadacre crops at four climatologically distinct locations in Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 133-144.
    5. De Liu & Heping Zuo, 2012. "Statistical downscaling of daily climate variables for climate change impact assessment over New South Wales, Australia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(3), pages 629-666, December.
    6. Peter A. Stott & D. A. Stone & M. R. Allen, 2004. "Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003," Nature, Nature, vol. 432(7017), pages 610-614, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pengtao Wang & Xupu Li & Liwei Zhang & Zhuangzhuang Wang & Jiangtao Bai & Yongyong Song & Hongzhu Han & Ting Zhao & Guan Huang & Junping Yan, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Variations of Production–Living–Ecological Space under Various, Changing Climate and Land Use Scenarios in the Upper Reaches of Hanjiang River Basin, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-21, September.
    2. Li, Siyi & Wang, Bin & Feng, Puyu & Liu, De Li & Li, Linchao & Shi, Lijie & Yu, Qiang, 2022. "Assessing climate vulnerability of historical wheat yield in south-eastern Australia's wheat belt," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    3. Bin Wang & De Li Liu & Cathy Waters & Qiang Yu, 2018. "Quantifying sources of uncertainty in projected wheat yield changes under climate change in eastern Australia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 259-273, November.
    4. Wang, Bin & Feng, Puyu & Chen, Chao & Liu, De Li & Waters, Cathy & Yu, Qiang, 2019. "Designing wheat ideotypes to cope with future changing climate in South-Eastern Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 9-18.
    5. Ennan Zheng & Mengting Qin & Peng Chen & Tianyu Xu & Zhongxue Zhang, 2022. "Climate Change Affects the Utilization of Light and Heat Resources in Paddy Field on the Songnen Plain, China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-19, October.
    6. Dengpan Xiao & Huizi Bai & De Li Liu, 2018. "Impact of Future Climate Change on Wheat Production: A Simulated Case for China’s Wheat System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-15, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Bin & Feng, Puyu & Chen, Chao & Liu, De Li & Waters, Cathy & Yu, Qiang, 2019. "Designing wheat ideotypes to cope with future changing climate in South-Eastern Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 9-18.
    2. Taylor, Chris & Cullen, Brendan & D'Occhio, Michael & Rickards, Lauren & Eckard, Richard, 2018. "Trends in wheat yields under representative climate futures: Implications for climate adaptation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-10.
    3. Hong Ying & Hongyan Zhang & Ying Sun & Jianjun Zhao & Zhengxiang Zhang & Xiaoyi Guo & Hang Zhao & Rihan Wu & Guorong Deng, 2020. "CMIP5-Based Spatiotemporal Changes of Extreme Temperature Events during 2021–2100 in Mainland China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-18, May.
    4. S. E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick & C. J. White & L. V. Alexander & D. Argüeso & G. Boschat & T. Cowan & J. P. Evans & M. Ekström & E. C. J. Oliver & A. Phatak & A. Purich, 2016. "Natural hazards in Australia: heatwaves," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(1), pages 101-114, November.
    5. Yong Li & De Li Liu & Graeme Schwenke & Bin Wang & Ian Macadam & Weijin Wang & Guangdi Li & Ram C Dalal, 2017. "Responses of nitrous oxide emissions from crop rotation systems to four projected future climate change scenarios on a black Vertosol in subtropical Australia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 142(3), pages 545-558, June.
    6. Megan C. Kirchmeier-Young & Francis W. Zwiers & Nathan P. Gillett & Alex J. Cannon, 2017. "Attributing extreme fire risk in Western Canada to human emissions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 365-379, September.
    7. Haowei Sun & Jinghan Ma & Li Wang, 2023. "Changes in per capita wheat production in China in the context of climate change and population growth," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 15(3), pages 597-612, June.
    8. Audrey Brouillet & Sylvie Joussaume, 2020. "More perceived but not faster evolution of heat stress than temperature extremes in the future," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 527-544, September.
    9. Markku Rummukainen, 2013. "Climate change: changing means and changing extremes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(1), pages 3-13, November.
    10. Gupta, Rishabh & Mishra, Ashok, 2019. "Climate change induced impact and uncertainty of rice yield of agro-ecological zones of India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1-11.
    11. Matthias Schmidt & Hermann Held & Elmar Kriegler & Alexander Lorenz, 2013. "Climate Policy Under Uncertain and Heterogeneous Climate Damages," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 54(1), pages 79-99, January.
    12. Pascalle Smith & Georg Heinrich & Martin Suklitsch & Andreas Gobiet & Markus Stoffel & Jürg Fuhrer, 2014. "Station-scale bias correction and uncertainty analysis for the estimation of irrigation water requirements in the Swiss Rhone catchment under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 521-534, December.
    13. T.M.L. Wigley, 2018. "The Paris warming targets: emissions requirements and sea level consequences," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 31-45, March.
    14. Gong, Ziqian & Baker, Justin S. & Wade, Christopher M. & Havlík, Petr, 2024. "Irrigation intensification in U.S. agriculture under climate change – an adaptation mechanism or trade-induced response?," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343581, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Michel Beine & Ilan Noy & Christopher Parsons, 2021. "Climate change, migration and voice," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-27, July.
    16. Islam, AFM Tariqul & Islam, AKM Saiful & Islam, GM Tarekul & Bala, Sujit Kumar & Salehin, Mashfiqus & Choudhury, Apurba Kanti & Dey, Nepal C. & Hossain, Akbar, 2022. "Adaptation strategies to increase water productivity of wheat under changing climate," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    17. Luke J. Harrington, 2017. "Investigating differences between event-as-class and probability density-based attribution statements with emerging climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(4), pages 641-654, April.
    18. Hwang, In Chang, 2013. "Stochastic Kaya model and its applications," MPRA Paper 55099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Roson, Roberto & Damania, Richard, 2016. "Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity an Assessment of Alternative Scenarios," Conference papers 332687, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    20. Le Bars, Dewi, 2018. "Uncertainty in sea level rise projections due to the dependence between contributors," Earth Arxiv uvw3s, Center for Open Science.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:138:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1726-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.