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Should more teams “trust the process” of tanking?

Author

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  • Eduardo G. Minuci
  • Alexander Cardazzi
  • Candon Johnson

Abstract

In many professional sport leagues, the worst‐performing teams receive higher probability of earning top draft picks. This provides teams incentives to purposefully lose, or “tank,” if they are not likely to contend for the playoffs or championships. We evaluate the effectiveness of tanking to improve team outcomes by examining the most explicit tanking case in the NBA: the “Trust the Process” Philadelphia 76ers. Using synthetic control, we demonstrate that tanking caused the 76ers to be more successful in terms of winning and operating income. However, only operating income had a plausibly positive present value when calculating discounted present values.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduardo G. Minuci & Alexander Cardazzi & Candon Johnson, 2026. "Should more teams “trust the process” of tanking?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(2), pages 408-425, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:44:y:2026:i:2:p:408-425
    DOI: 10.1111/coep.12705
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