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Significance of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Min Shu & Ruiqiang Song & Wei Zhu, 2021. "The 'COVID' Crash of the 2020 U.S. Stock Market," Papers 2101.03625, arXiv.org.
  2. Kristoffer Pons Bertelsen, 2019. "Comparing Tests for Identification of Bubbles," CREATES Research Papers 2019-16, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  3. Demos, G. & Sornette, D., 2019. "Comparing nested data sets and objectively determining financial bubbles’ inceptions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 524(C), pages 661-675.
  4. Xingxing Ye & Raphaël Douady, 2019. "Risk and Financial Management Article Systemic Risk Indicators Based on Nonlinear PolyModel," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-02488592, HAL.
  5. A. Corcos & J-P Eckmann & A. Malaspinas & Y. Malevergne & D. Sornette, 2002. "Imitation and contrarian behaviour: hyperbolic bubbles, crashes and chaos," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 264-281.
  6. Didier Sornette & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2005. "Non-parametric determination of real-time lag structure between two time series: the 'optimal thermal causal path' method," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(6), pages 577-591.
  7. A. Johansen & D. Sornette, 2002. "Endogenous versus Exogenous Crashes in Financial Markets," Papers cond-mat/0210509, arXiv.org.
  8. Yukalov, V.I. & Sornette, D. & Yukalova, E.P., 2009. "Nonlinear dynamical model of regime switching between conventions and business cycles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 70(1-2), pages 206-230, May.
  9. George Chang & James Feigenbaum, 2006. "A Bayesian analysis of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 15-36.
  10. Pyrlik, Vladimir, 2013. "Autoregressive conditional duration as a model for financial market crashes prediction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(23), pages 6041-6051.
  11. Askar Akaev & Andrey Korotayev, 2016. "Global economic dynamics of the forthcoming years. A forecast," Papers 1612.09189, arXiv.org.
  12. Frederic Abergel & Nicolas Huth & Ioane Muni Toke, 2009. "Financial bubbles analysis with a cross-sectional estimator," Papers 0909.2885, arXiv.org.
  13. Dion Harmon & Marco Lagi & Marcus A M de Aguiar & David D Chinellato & Dan Braha & Irving R Epstein & Yaneer Bar-Yam, 2015. "Anticipating Economic Market Crises Using Measures of Collective Panic," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-27, July.
  14. Maximilian Brauers & Matthias Thomas & Joachim Zietz, 2014. "Are There Rational Bubbles in REITs? New Evidence from a Complex Systems Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 165-184, August.
  15. Wosnitza, Jan Henrik & Leker, Jens, 2014. "Can log-periodic power law structures arise from random fluctuations?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 401(C), pages 228-250.
  16. Riccardo Rebonato & Valerio Gaspari, 2006. "Analysis of drawdowns and drawups in the US$ interest-rate market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(4), pages 297-326.
  17. Fantazzini, Dean, 2016. "The oil price crash in 2014/15: Was there a (negative) financial bubble?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 383-396.
  18. Vladimir Filimonov & Didier Sornette, "undated". "A Stable and Robust Calibration Scheme of the Log-Periodic Power Law Model," Working Papers ETH-RC-11-002, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
  19. Petr Geraskin & Dean Fantazzini, 2013. "Everything you always wanted to know about log-periodic power laws for bubble modeling but were afraid to ask," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 366-391, May.
  20. Zhang, Qunzhi & Sornette, Didier & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Yetkiner, Hakan, 2016. "LPPLS bubble indicators over two centuries of the S&P 500 index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 458(C), pages 126-139.
  21. Johansen, Anders, 2003. "Characterization of large price variations in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 157-166.
  22. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2003. "2000–2003 real estate bubble in the UK but not in the USA," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 329(1), pages 249-263.
  23. Struzik, Zbigniew R., 2003. "Econonatology: the physics of the economy in labour," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 344-351.
  24. Akaev, Askar A. (Акаев, Аскар А.) & Korotayev, Andrey V (Коротаев, Андрей В.), 2017. "Toward Forecasting Global Economic Dynamics of the Forthcoming Years [К Прогнозированию Глобальной Экономической Динамики Ближайших Лет]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 8-39, February.
  25. Askar Akaev & Andrey Korotayev & Alexey Fomin, 2012. "Global Inflation Dynamics: regularities & forecasts," Papers 1207.4069, arXiv.org.
  26. Fantazzini, Dean & Nigmatullin, Erik & Sukhanovskaya, Vera & Ivliev, Sergey, 2016. "Everything you always wanted to know about bitcoin modelling but were afraid to ask. I," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 44, pages 5-24.
  27. Song, Ruiqiang & Shu, Min & Zhu, Wei, 2022. "The 2020 global stock market crash: Endogenous or exogenous?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 585(C).
  28. Hans-Christian Graf v. Bothmer, 2003. "Significance of log-periodic signatures in cumulative noise," Papers cond-mat/0302507, arXiv.org, revised May 2003.
  29. Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Yan, Wanfeng & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2013. "Clarifications to questions and criticisms on the Johansen–Ledoit–Sornette financial bubble model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4417-4428.
  30. D. Sornette, 2014. "Physics and Financial Economics (1776-2014): Puzzles, Ising and Agent-Based models," Papers 1404.0243, arXiv.org.
  31. J. V. Andersen & D Sornette, 2003. "Fearless versus Fearful Speculative Financial Bubbles," Papers cond-mat/0311089, arXiv.org.
  32. D. Sornette & Y. Malevergne & J. F. Muzy, 2002. "Volatility fingerprints of large shocks: Endogeneous versus exogeneous," Papers cond-mat/0204626, arXiv.org.
  33. Shu, Min & Zhu, Wei, 2020. "Detection of Chinese stock market bubbles with LPPLS confidence indicator," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 557(C).
  34. Yao, Can-Zhong & Li, Hong-Yu, 2021. "A study on the bursting point of Bitcoin based on the BSADF and LPPLS methods," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
  35. V. Filimonov & G. Demos & D. Sornette, 2017. "Modified profile likelihood inference and interval forecast of the burst of financial bubbles," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(8), pages 1167-1186, August.
  36. Shu, Min & Song, Ruiqiang & Zhu, Wei, 2021. "The ‘COVID’ crash of the 2020 U.S. Stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
  37. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2009. "A case study of speculative financial bubbles in the South African stock market 2003–2006," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(6), pages 869-880.
  38. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2006. "Non-parametric determination of real-time lag structure between two time series: The "optimal thermal causal path" method with applications to economic data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 195-224, March.
  39. Sornette, Didier & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2006. "Predictability of large future changes in major financial indices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 153-168.
  40. Vakhtina, Elena & Wosnitza, Jan Henrik, 2015. "Capital market based warning indicators of bank runs," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 417(C), pages 304-320.
  41. Didier SORNETTE, 2014. "Physics and Financial Economics (1776-2014): Puzzles, Ising and Agent-Based Models," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 14-25, Swiss Finance Institute.
  42. Askar Akaev & Alexei Fomin & Andrey Korotayev, 2011. "The Second Wave of the Global Crisis? A Log-Periodic Oscillation Analysis of Commodity Price Series," Papers 1107.0480, arXiv.org.
  43. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2003. "Evidence of a worldwide stock market log-periodic anti-bubble since mid-2000," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 330(3), pages 543-583.
  44. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2004. "Antibubble and prediction of China's stock market and real-estate," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 337(1), pages 243-268.
  45. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Werneck, Filipe K., 2009. "Can we predict crashes? The case of the Brazilian stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(8), pages 1603-1609.
  46. D. Sornette & R. Woodard, "undated". "Financial Bubbles, Real Estate bubbles, Derivative Bubbles, and the Financial and Economic Crisis," Working Papers CCSS-09-003, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
  47. Jovanovic, Franck & Schinckus, Christophe, 2017. "Econophysics and Financial Economics: An Emerging Dialogue," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190205034.
  48. Abeer ElBahrawy & Laura Alessandretti & Anne Kandler & Romualdo Pastor-Satorras & Andrea Baronchelli, 2017. "Evolutionary dynamics of the cryptocurrency market," Papers 1705.05334, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2017.
  49. Wei-Xing Zhou & Didier Sornette, 2003. "Nonparametric Analyses Of Log-Periodic Precursors To Financial Crashes," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(08), pages 1107-1125.
  50. Bikramaditya Ghosh & Spyros Papathanasiou & Nikita Ramchandani & Dimitrios Kenourgios, 2021. "Diagnosis and Prediction of IIGPS’ Countries Bubble Crashes during BREXIT," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-14, April.
  51. Wosnitza, Jan Henrik & Leker, Jens, 2014. "Why credit risk markets are predestined for exhibiting log-periodic power law structures," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 393(C), pages 427-449.
  52. Bikramaditya Ghosh & Spyros Papathanasiou & Vandita Dar & Dimitrios Kenourgios, 2022. "Deconstruction of the Green Bubble during COVID-19 International Evidence," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-18, March.
  53. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2004. "Causal slaving of the US treasury bond yield antibubble by the stock market antibubble of August 2000," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 337(3), pages 586-608.
  54. Sornette, Didier & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2004. "Evidence of fueling of the 2000 new economy bubble by foreign capital inflow: implications for the future of the US economy and its stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 332(C), pages 412-440.
  55. Rebecca Westphal & Didier Sornette, 2019. "Market Impact and Performance of Arbitrageurs of Financial Bubbles in An Agent-Based Model," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 19-29, Swiss Finance Institute.
  56. Damian Smug & Peter Ashwin & Didier Sornette, 2018. "Predicting financial market crashes using ghost singularities," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(3), pages 1-20, March.
  57. Terry Bossomaier & Lionel Barnett & Adam Steen & Mike Harré & Steve d'Alessandro & Rod Duncan, 2018. "Information flow around stock market collapse," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(S1), pages 45-58, November.
  58. Daniel Traian Pele & Miruna Mazurencu-Marinescu & Peter Nijkamp, 2013. "Herding Behaviour, Bubbles and Log Periodic Power Laws in Illiquid Stock Markets. A Case Study on the Bucharest Stock Exchange," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-109/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
  59. G. Demos & D. Sornette, 2017. "Birth or burst of financial bubbles: which one is easier to diagnose?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 657-675, May.
  60. Matsushita, Raul & da Silva, Sergio & Figueiredo, Annibal & Gleria, Iram, 2006. "Log-periodic crashes revisited," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 364(C), pages 331-335.
  61. Emanuel Derman, 2002. "The perception of time, risk and return during periods of speculation," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 282-296.
  62. Brée, David S. & Joseph, Nathan Lael, 2013. "Testing for financial crashes using the Log Periodic Power Law model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 287-297.
  63. Pawel Dlotko & Simon Rudkin, 2019. "The Topology of Time Series: Improving Recession Forecasting from Yield Spreads," Working Papers 2019-02, Swansea University, School of Management.
  64. Jacopo Rocchi & Enoch Yan Lok Tsui & David Saad, 2017. "Emerging interdependence between stock values during financial crashes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(5), pages 1-15, May.
  65. Andersen, J.V. & Sornette, D., 2004. "Fearless versus fearful speculative financial bubbles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 337(3), pages 565-585.
  66. Fries, Sébastien, 2018. "Conditional moments of noncausal alpha-stable processes and the prediction of bubble crash odds," MPRA Paper 97353, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2019.
  67. Alexey Fomin & Andrey Korotayev & Julia Zinkina, 2016. "Negative oil price bubble is likely to burst in March - May 2016. A forecast on the basis of the law of log-periodical dynamics," Papers 1601.04341, arXiv.org.
  68. Fantazzini, Dean & Nigmatullin, Erik & Sukhanovskaya, Vera & Ivliev, Sergey, 2017. "Everything you always wanted to know about bitcoin modelling but were afraid to ask. Part 2," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 45, pages 5-28.
  69. Filimonov, V. & Sornette, D., 2013. "A stable and robust calibration scheme of the log-periodic power law model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(17), pages 3698-3707.
  70. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2006. "Is there a real-estate bubble in the US?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 361(1), pages 297-308.
  71. Kensuke Ito & Kyohei Shibano & Gento Mogi, 2022. "Bubble Prediction of Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs): An Empirical Investigation," Papers 2203.12587, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
  72. C. Vladimir Rodríguez-Caballero & Mauricio Villanueva-Domínguez, 2022. "Predicting cryptocurrency crash dates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(6), pages 2855-2873, December.
  73. Sergio Da Silva & Raul Matsushita & Iram Gleria & Annibal Figueiredo, 2004. "Log-Periodicity in High Frequency Financial Series," Finance 0409043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  74. Stephen Matteo Miller, 2015. "Leverage effect breakdowns and flight from risky assets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(5), pages 865-871, May.
  75. Riza Demirer & Guilherme Demos & Rangan Gupta & Didier Sornette, 2019. "On the predictability of stock market bubbles: evidence from LPPLS confidence multi-scale indicators," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 843-858, May.
  76. Westphal, Rebecca & Sornette, Didier, 2020. "Market impact and performance of arbitrageurs of financial bubbles in an agent-based model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1-23.
  77. Vladimir Filimonov & Didier Sornette, 2011. "A Stable and Robust Calibration Scheme of the Log-Periodic Power Law Model," Papers 1108.0099, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2013.
  78. Gisler, Monika & Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan, 2011. "Innovation as a social bubble: The example of the Human Genome Project," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(10), pages 1412-1425.
  79. Ruiqiang Song & Min Shu & Wei Zhu, 2021. "The 2020 Global Stock Market Crash: Endogenous or Exogenous?," Papers 2101.00327, arXiv.org.
  80. Raul Matsushita & Iram Gleria & Annibal Figueiredo & Sergio Da Silva, 2005. "On Log-Periodic Crashes," Finance 0505007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  81. Boon Kin Teh & Siew Ann Cheong, 2016. "The Asian Correction Can Be Quantitatively Forecasted Using a Statistical Model of Fusion-Fission Processes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(10), pages 1-13, October.
  82. Jacopo Rocchi & Enoch Yan Lok Tsui & David Saad, 2016. "Emerging interdependence between stock values during financial crashes," Papers 1611.02549, arXiv.org.
  83. Xingxing Ye & Raphael Douady, 2018. "Systemic Risk Indicators Based on Nonlinear PolyModel," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-24, December.
  84. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2003. "Renormalization group analysis of the 2000–2002 anti-bubble in the US S&P500 index: explanation of the hierarchy of five crashes and prediction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 330(3), pages 584-604.
  85. Cheng, Fangzheng & Fan, Tijun & Fan, Dandan & Li, Shanling, 2018. "The prediction of oil price turning points with log-periodic power law and multi-population genetic algorithm," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 341-355.
  86. Didier Sornette & Ryan Woodard & Maxim Fedorovsky & Stefan Reimann & Hilary Woodard & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2009. "The Financial Bubble Experiment: advanced diagnostics and forecasts of bubble terminations," Papers 0911.0454, arXiv.org, revised May 2010.
  87. Lin, L. & Ren, R.E. & Sornette, D., 2014. "The volatility-confined LPPL model: A consistent model of ‘explosive’ financial bubbles with mean-reverting residuals," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 210-225.
  88. Leonidas Sandoval Junior & Italo De Paula Franca, 2011. "Shocks in financial markets, price expectation, and damped harmonic oscillators," Papers 1103.1992, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2011.
  89. Min Shu & Ruiqiang Song & Wei Zhu, 2021. "The 2021 Bitcoin Bubbles and Crashes—Detection and Classification," Stats, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-21, November.
  90. Wosnitza, Jan Henrik & Denz, Cornelia, 2013. "Liquidity crisis detection: An application of log-periodic power law structures to default prediction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(17), pages 3666-3681.
  91. Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2009. "The 2006–2008 oil bubble: Evidence of speculation, and prediction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(8), pages 1571-1576.
  92. Filimonov, Vladimir & Bicchetti, David & Maystre, Nicolas & Sornette, Didier, 2014. "Quantification of the high level of endogeneity and of structural regime shifts in commodity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 174-192.
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