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Tests of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis

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Cited by:

  1. Paul Frijters & John P. Haisken-DeNew & Michael Shields, 2003. "How Well Do Individuals Predict Their Future Life Satisfaction? Rationality and Learning Following a Nationwide Exogenous Shock," CEPR Discussion Papers 468, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
  2. Feenberg, Daniel R, et al, 1989. "Testing the Rationality of State Revenue Forecasts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(2), pages 300-308, May.
  3. Stan Hurn & Jing Tian & Lina Xu, 2021. "Assessing the Informational Content of Official Australian Bureau of Meteorology Forecasts of Wind Speed," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 97(319), pages 525-547, December.
  4. Muhammad Zakaria & Shujat Ali, 2010. "Fiscal Marksmanship in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 15(2), pages 113-133, Jul-Dec.
  5. Huh, Chan G. & Lansing, Kevin J., 2000. "Expectations, credibility, and disinflation in a small macroeconomic model," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 51-86.
  6. Buccola, Steven T., 1989. "Pricing Efficiency In Agricultural Markets: Issues, Methods, And Results," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, July.
  7. Tomáš Frömmel, 2017. "The Rational Expectations Hypothesis: Theoretical Critique," E-LOGOS, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(2), pages 4-12.
  8. Isiklar, Gultekin & Lahiri, Kajal, 2007. "How far ahead can we forecast? Evidence from cross-country surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 167-187.
  9. Lombardi, Waldo & Ramrattan, Lall B. & Szenberg, Michael, 2004. "Anomalies in economics enrollment: 1991-1992 to 1995-1996," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 153-165, April.
  10. Hatzinikolaou, Dimitris, 1999. "Modelling consumption: permanent-income or rule-of-thumb behaviour?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 293-306, April.
  11. Klug, Adam & Landon-Lane, John S. & White, Eugene N., 2005. "How could everyone have been so wrong? Forecasting the Great Depression with the railroads," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-55, January.
  12. Daniel Gutknecht & Stefan Hoderlein & Michael Peters, 2014. "Costly Information Processing and Income Expectations," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 861, Boston College Department of Economics.
  13. Aggarwal, Raj & Mohanty, Sunil, 2000. "Rationality of Japanese macroeconomic survey forecasts: empirical evidence and comparisons with the US," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 21-31, January.
  14. Michael Fusillo & Hercules Haralambides, 2020. "Do carrier expectations indicate industry structure in container shipping? An econometric analysis," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-16, December.
  15. Wojciech Olszewski & Alvaro Sandroni, 2008. "Manipulability of Future-Independent Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(6), pages 1437-1466, November.
  16. Alessia De Stefani, 2021. "House price history, biased expectations, and credit cycles: The role of housing investors," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1238-1266, December.
  17. Victor Zarnowitz, 1997. "Business Cycles Observed and Assessed: Why and How They Matter," NBER Working Papers 6230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Burton, Diana M. & Love, H. Alan, 1996. "A Review of Alternative Expectations Regimes in Commodity Markets: Specification, Estimation, and Hypothesis Testing Using Structural Models," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 213-231, October.
  19. Puah, Chin-Hong & Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2012. "Rationality of business operational forecasts: evidence from Malaysian distributive trade sector," MPRA Paper 37599, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. Erik Theissen, 2007. "An analysis of private investors' stock market return forecasts," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 35-43.
  21. Veeman, Michele M. & Veeman, Terrence S. & Dong, X.Y. & Sivasangaram, M., 1989. "Macro-Economic Influences on Alberta Agriculture," Project Report Series 232073, University of Alberta, Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology.
  22. MacDonald, Stephen, 1992. "The Accuracy of USDA's Export Forecasts," MPRA Paper 71543, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  23. Thomas Barré, 2011. "Price expectations and price dynamics: the case of the rice sector in developing Asia," Working Papers hal-00630711, HAL.
  24. Silva Lopes, Artur, 1994. "A "hipótese das expectativas racionais": teoria e realidade (uma visita guiada à literatura até 1992) [The "rational expectations hypothesis": theory and reality (a guided tour ," MPRA Paper 9699, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2008.
  25. Francis W. Ahking & Stephen M. Miller, 1988. "Models of Business Cycles: A Review Essay," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 197-202, Apr-Jun.
  26. Rotheli, Tobias F., 1999. "Assessing Monetary Targeting With Models of Expectations Formation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 139-151, January.
  27. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra Dwyer & Wayne-Roy Gayle & Thomas Muench, 2008. "Expectations in micro data: rationality revisited," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 381-416, March.
  28. Kaie Kerem & Enn Listra & Katrin Rahu, 2004. "Market Efficiency and Rational Expectations," Working Papers 112, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology.
  29. Chetan, Dave, 2004. "Are Investment Expectations Rational?," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 2004208e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
  30. Pelaez, Rolando F., 1995. "The Fisher effect: Reprise," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 333-346.
  31. Hatzinikolaou, Dimitris, 1997. "Government spending, taxation of interest, and private saving: An empirical analysis using Greek aggregate data," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 317-330, April.
  32. Gandré, Pauline, 2015. "Asset prices and information disclosure under recency-biased learning," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 1515, CEPREMAP.
  33. Arnold Lutz, 2000. "Α Model of Debt Deflation and the Phillips Curve: Implications for Business Cycles and the Balance Sheet Channel of Monetary Policy / Schulden-Deflation und die Phillips-Kurve: Implikationen für Konju," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 220(4), pages 385-399, August.
  34. Oliver Bischoff & Achim Buchwald, 2018. "Horizontal and Vertical Firm Networks, Corporate Performance and Product Market Competition," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 25-45, March.
  35. Al-Faryan, Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh, 2021. "The Effect of Board Composition and Managerial Pay on Saudi Firm Performance," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, issue Online fi.
  36. Thomas Barré, 2011. "Price expectations and price dynamics: the case of the rice sector in developing Asia," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00630711, HAL.
  37. Ramirez, Francisco A., 2009. "Perturbaciones Internacionales y Fluctuaciones del Producto Interno Bruto en una Economía en Desarrollo: Evidencia de República Dominicana para el Período 1998-2008 [International Shocks and GDP fl," MPRA Paper 38987, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  38. Goodwin, Thomas & Tian, Jing, 2017. "A state space approach to evaluate multi-horizon forecasts," Working Papers 2017-15, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
  39. Awan, Obaid A., 2019. "Price discovery or noise: The role of arbitrage and speculation in explaining crude oil price behaviour," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(C).
  40. Gooding, Richard Z. & Goel, Sanjay & Wiseman, Robert M., 1996. "Fixed versus variable reference points in the risk-return relationship," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 331-350, March.
  41. Colucci, D. & Valori, V., 2006. "Ways of learning in a simple economic setting: A comparison," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 653-670.
  42. Frijters, Paul & de New, John & Shields, Michael A., 2002. "Individual Rationality and Learning: Welfare Expectations in East Germany Post-Reunification," IZA Discussion Papers 498, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  43. Nerlove, Marc & Schuermann, Til, 1997. "Businessmen's Expectations Are Neither Rational nor Adaptive," ZEW Discussion Papers 97-01, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  44. Xavier D'Haultfoeuille & Christophe Gaillac & Arnaud Maurel, 2021. "Rationalizing rational expectations: Characterizations and tests," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(3), pages 817-842, July.
  45. Feng Gao & Fengming Song & Jun Wang, 2009. "Rational or irrational expectations? Evidence from China's stock market," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 10(5), pages 432-448, November.
  46. Domenico Colucci & Vincenzo Valori, 2004. "Adaptive learning in the Cobweb with an endogenous gain sequence," Working Papers - Mathematical Economics 2004-01, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
  47. Simonovits, András & Molnár, György, 1996. "Várakozások, stabilitás és működőképesség az együttélő korosztályok egy realista modelljében [Expectations, stability and capability to operate in a realistic model of coexisting cohorts]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 863-890.
  48. Daniel Gutknecht & Stefan Hoderlein & Michael Peters, 2016. "Constrained Information Processing and Individual Income Expectations," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 898, Boston College Department of Economics.
  49. Benitez-Silva, Hugo & Dwyer, Debra S., 2006. "Expectation formation of older married couples and the rational expectations hypothesis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 191-218, April.
  50. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2013. "Forecasting Binary Outcomes," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1025-1106, Elsevier.
  51. Bell, William Paul, 2009. "Adaptive interactive expectations: dynamically modelling profit expectations," MPRA Paper 38260, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Feb 2010.
  52. Michael W. M. Roos & Wolfgang J. Luhan, 2013. "Information, Learning and Expectations in an Experimental Model Economy," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 80(319), pages 513-531, July.
  53. Binder, Carola Conces, 2016. "Estimation of historical inflation expectations," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-31.
  54. William A. Darity & Arthur H. Goldsmith, 1996. "Social Psychology, Unemployment and Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 121-140, Winter.
  55. Alan S. Blinder, 1988. "The Fall and Rise of Keynesian Economics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 64(4), pages 278-294, December.
  56. repec:pra:mprapa:37920 is not listed on IDEAS
  57. Hagenhoff, Tim & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past consensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations," BERG Working Paper Series 163, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  58. Jing Tian & Firmin Doko Tchatoka & Thomas Goodwin, 2022. "Are internally consistent forecasts rational?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(7), pages 1338-1355, November.
  59. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
  60. Houston H. Stokes, 1990. "Measuring Expected Inflation; Further Tests in the Frequency Domain of a Proposed New Measure," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 339-348, Oct-Dec.
  61. Ball, Laurence & Croushore, Dean, 2003. "Expectations and the Effects of Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 473-484, August.
  62. Swenson, Charles W., 1997. "Rational expectations and tax policy: Experimental market evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 433-455, March.
  63. Tian, Jing & Goodwin, Thomas, 2018. "An unobserved component modeling approach to evaluate multi-horizon forecasts," Working Papers 2018-04, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
  64. C.Y. Yiu & S.K. Wong, 2005. "The Effects of Expected Transport Improvements on Housing Prices," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 42(1), pages 113-125, January.
  65. Lall B. Ramrattan, 1999. "The Decline of Rental Completions in the U. S. Housing Market: 1970–1994," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 43(1), pages 35-46, March.
  66. Chin-Hong Puah & Shirly Siew-Ling Wong & Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2013. "Testing rational expectations hypothesis in the manufacturing sector in Malaysia," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 303-316, April.
  67. Domenico Colucci & Vincenzo Valori, 2004. "Generalised Fading Memory Learning in a Cobweb Model: some evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 272, Society for Computational Economics.
  68. Bonham, Carl S & Cohen, Richard H, 2001. "To Aggregate, Pool, or Neither: Testing the Rational-Expectations Hypothesis Using Survey Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 278-291, July.
  69. Gallagher, Paul W. & Sleper, Daniel, 2016. "The market and consumer welfare effects of mid-level ethanol blends in the US fuel market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 149-159.
  70. Simonovits, András, 1996. "A magyar matematikai közgazdaságtan múltja, jelene és jövője [Past, present and future of the Hungarian mathematical economics]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 350-355.
  71. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra S. Dwyer, 2003. "What to Expect when you are Expecting Rationality: Testing Rational Expectations using Micro Data," Working Papers wp037, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  72. Bell, William Paul, 2008. "Adaptive Interactive Profit Expectations and Small World Networks," MPRA Paper 37924, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  73. Wärneryd, K.E., 1995. "Demystifying rational expectations theory through an economic-psychological model," Discussion Paper 1995-92, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  74. Nithin K. & Roy, Rathin, 2014. "Finance Commission of India's Assessments: A Political Economy Contention between Expectations and Outcomes," Working Papers 14/141, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  75. Grant, Alan P. & Thomas, Lloyd B., 2001. "Supply shocks and the rationality of inflation forecasts," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 515-532.
  76. Davies, Anthony & Lahiri, Kajal, 1995. "A new framework for analyzing survey forecasts using three-dimensional panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 205-227, July.
  77. Michael P. Keane & David E. Runkle, 1989. "Are economic forecasts rational?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 13(Spr), pages 26-33.
  78. Michael Lechner & Friedhelm Pfeiffer & Gert Wagner, 1991. "Die Arbeitsmarkterwartung in der DDR kurz vor der Währungsunion," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 22, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  79. Junttila, Juha, 2001. "Testing an Augmented Fisher Hypothesis for a Small Open Economy: The Case of Finland," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 577-599, October.
  80. Chaudhry, Muhammad Imran & Katchova, Ani & Miranda, Mario Javier, 2016. "Examining pricing mechanics in the poultry value chain - empirical evidence from Pakistan," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235953, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  81. Ashutosh Vashishtha, 2020. "Cobweb price dynamics under the presence of agricultural futures market: theoretical analysis," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 67(2), pages 131-162, June.
  82. Chetan Dave, 2011. "Are Investment Expectations Rational, Adaptive Or Regressive?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(1), pages 212-225, January.
  83. Muzafar Shah Habibullah, 2005. "Do Bankers Make Rational Economic Forecasts?," The IUP Journal of Bank Management, IUP Publications, vol. 0(4), pages 7-15, November.
  84. Lopez, Rigoberto A. & Munoz, Arnold O., 1986. "An Application of Composite Price Expectations to the Fresh Tomato Market," 1986 Annual Meeting, July 27-30, Reno, Nevada 278112, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  85. Anandasivam Gopal & Konduru Sivaramakrishnan & M. S. Krishnan & Tridas Mukhopadhyay, 2003. "Contracts in Offshore Software Development: An Empirical Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(12), pages 1671-1683, December.
  86. Hoover, Kevin D. & Young, Warren, 2013. "Rational Expectations: Retrospect And Prospect," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(5), pages 1169-1192, July.
  87. John Conlisk, 1996. "Why Bounded Rationality?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 669-700, June.
  88. Lyman Mlambo, 2012. "Adaptive And Rational Expectations Hypotheses: Reviewing The Critiques," The International Journal of Economic Behavior - IJEB, Faculty of Business and Administration, University of Bucharest, vol. 2(1), pages 3-15, December.
  89. Lloyd B. Thomas, 1999. "Survey Measures of Expected U.S. Inflation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 125-144, Fall.
  90. Awad, Ibrahim L., 2002. "ظاهرة الركود التضخمى فى الاقتصاد المصرى: دراسة تحليلية
    [The Phenomenon of Stagflation in The Egyptian Economy: Analytical Study]    ," MPRA Paper 5465, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  91. Rathin Roy, 2015. "Finance Commission of India’s Assessments: A Political Economy Contention between Expectations and Outcomes," Working Papers id:6581, eSocialSciences.
  92. Sotiris Tsolacos & Tony McGough, 1999. "Rational Expectations, Uncertainty and Cyclical Activity in the British Office Market," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 36(7), pages 1137-1149, June.
  93. Cecilia Bermúdez, 2014. "La racionalidad en la formación de expectativas. Crítica de la hipótesis de expectativas racionales," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 16(30), pages 83-97, January-J.
  94. Michela Nardo, 2003. "The Quantification of Qualitative Survey Data: A Critical Assessment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 645-668, December.
  95. Hagenhoff, Tim & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past consensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations," Working Papers 0686, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  96. Kim, Insu & Kim, Minsoo, 2009. "Irrational Bias in Inflation Forecasts," MPRA Paper 16447, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  97. Zhang, Qin & Seetharaman, P.B. & Narasimhan, Chakravarthi, 2012. "The Indirect Impact of Price Deals on Households’ Purchase Decisions Through the Formation of Expected Future Prices," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 88-101.
  98. Davies, Antony, 2006. "A framework for decomposing shocks and measuring volatilities derived from multi-dimensional panel data of survey forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 373-393.
  99. Kranz Tobias, 2019. "Non-Linearities and the Euler Equation: Does Uncertainty Have an Effect on the Approximation Quality?," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 70(3), pages 267-293, December.
  100. Lake, A., 2020. "Optimal Feasible Expectations in Economics and Finance," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 20105, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  101. Saadet Kirbas Kasman & Adnan Kasman & Evrim Turgutlu, 2005. "Fisher Hypothesis Revisited: A Fractional Cointegration Analysis," Discussion Paper Series 05/04, Dokuz Eylül University, Faculty of Business, Department of Economics, revised 23 Nov 2005.
  102. Wintoki, M. Babajide & Linck, James S. & Netter, Jeffry M., 2012. "Endogeneity and the dynamics of internal corporate governance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 581-606.
  103. Molnar, Gyorgy & Simonovits, Andras, 1998. "Expectations, (in)stability and (in)viability in realistic overlapping cohorts models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 303-332, September.
  104. Myers, Robert J. & Oehmke, James F., 1987. "Instability and Risk as Rationales for Government Intervention in Agriculture," Staff Paper Series 200938, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
  105. Philip Hans Franses, 2021. "Testing bias in professional forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 1086-1094, September.
  106. Morten Hjortskov, 2020. "Interpreting expectations: Normative and predictive expectations from the citizens’ viewpoint," Journal of Behavioral Public Administration, Center for Experimental and Behavioral Public Administration, vol. 3(1).
  107. Gandré, Pauline, 2020. "US stock prices and recency-biased learning in the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis and its aftermath," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
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