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Rational Expectations: Retrospect And Prospect

Author

Listed:
  • Hoover, Kevin D.
  • Young, Warren

Abstract

The transcript of a panel discussion marking the 50th anniversary of John Muth's “Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements” (Econometrica 1961). The panel consisted of Michael Lovell, Robert Lucas, Dale Mortensen, Robert Shiller, and Neil Wallace. The discussion was moderated by Kevin Hoover and Warren Young. The panel touched on a wide variety of issues related to the rational-expectations hypothesis, including its history, starting with Muth's work at Carnegie Tech; its methodological role; applications to policy; its relationship to behavioral economics; its role in the recent financial crisis; and its likely future.The panel discussion was held in a session sponsored by the History of Economics Society at the Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) meetings in the Capitol 1 Room of the Hyatt Regency Hotel in Denver, Colorado.

Suggested Citation

  • Hoover, Kevin D. & Young, Warren, 2013. "Rational Expectations: Retrospect And Prospect," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(5), pages 1169-1192, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:17:y:2013:i:05:p:1169-1192_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Delcey, 2019. "Samuelson vs Fama on the Efficient Market Hypothesis: The Point of View of Expertise [Samuelson vs Fama sur l’efficience informationnelle des marchés financiers : le point de vue de l’expertise]," Post-Print hal-01618347, HAL.
    2. Thomas Delcey & Francesco Sergi, 2022. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Rational Expectations. How Did They Meet and Live (Happily?) Ever After," Post-Print hal-02187362, HAL.
    3. repec:upd:utppwp:064 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Saleuddin, Rasheed & Coffman, D’Maris, 2018. "Can inflation expectations be measured using commodity futures prices?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 37-48.
    5. Danilo Freitas Ramalho Da Silva, 2014. "Lucas’S Early Research In The 1960’S," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41st Brazilian Economics Meeting] 009, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    6. Judy L Klein, 2015. "The Cold War Hot House for Modeling Strategies at the Carnegie Institute of Technology," Working Papers Series 19, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    7. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-02187362 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Ahmet Yağmur Ersoy & Metin Saygılı & Mustafa İlteriş Yılmaz & Mustafa Emre Uslu & İhsan Hakan Selvi, 2022. "Consumer Sentiment in Turkey, from Closure to the New Normal," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-24, July.
    9. Roman Frydman & Morten Nyboe Tabor, 2022. "Muth's Hypothesis Under Knightian Uncertainty: A Novel Account of Inflation Forecasts," Working Papers Series inetwp194, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    10. Abe, Naohito & Ueno, Yuko, 2016. "The Mechanism of Inflation Expectation Formation among Consumers," RCESR Discussion Paper Series DP16-1, Research Center for Economic and Social Risks, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    11. repec:hal:cesptp:hal-02187362 is not listed on IDEAS

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