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What determines macroeconomic volatility? A cross-section and panel data study

  • Leonidas Spiliopoulos

    (University of Sydney)

This paper examines the determinants of the volatility in growth rates, seeking to expand on a very limited literature which has focused almost exclusively on financial determinants of volatility. An analysis of 41 variables and their effects on growth volatility yields some surprising results: the relationship between financial sophistication and volatility is not clearly positive as expounded in many studies, the oft cited negative relationship between real GDP per capita and volatility turns out to be positive, and there is no important relationship between inflation and volatility. The main policy implication for authorities is that intervention in most cases, whether in the form of trade and currency controls, or high government consumption, tends to exacerbate volatility.

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File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/mac/papers/0505/0505026.pdf
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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0505026.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 30 May 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0505026
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 39
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org

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  1. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September.
  2. Acemoglu, Daron & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 1997. "Was Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk, Diversification, and Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 709-51, August.
  3. Thorsten Beck & Ross Levine & Norman Loayza, 1999. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 56, Central Bank of Chile.
  4. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I just ran four million regressions," Economics Working Papers 201, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  5. Denizer Cevdet A. & Iyigun Murat F. & Owen Ann, 2002. "Finance and Macroeconomic Volatility," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, October.
  6. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2006. "Growth volatility and financial liberalization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 370-403, April.
  7. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and growth : Schumpeter might be right," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1083, The World Bank.
  8. Philippe Aghion & Abhijit Banerjee & Thomas Piketty, 1999. "Dualism and Macroeconomic Volatility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1359-1397.
  9. Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Imbs, Jean, 2002. "Why the Link Between Volatility and Growth is Both Positive and Negative," CEPR Discussion Papers 3561, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Joseph Macri & Dipendra Sinha, 2000. "Output variability and economic growth: The case of Australia," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 24(3), pages 275-282, September.
  12. Thanasis Stengos & Theofanis P. Mamuneas & Pantelis Kalaitzidakis, 2002. "Specification and sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 645-656.
  13. Pantelis Kalaitzidakis & Theofanis P. Mamuneas & Thanasis Stengos, 2000. "A non-linear sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 33(3), pages 604-617, August.
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