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A Large Factor Model for Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables in South Africa

  • Rangan Gupta
  • Alain Kabundi

This paper uses large Factor Models (FMs) which accommodates a large cross-section of macroeconomic time series for forecasting per capita growth rate, inflation, and the nominal short-term interest rate for the South African economy. The FMs used in this study contains 267 quarterly series observed over the period of 1980Q1-2006Q4. The results, based on the RMSEs of one- to four-quarters-ahead out of sample forecasts over 2001Q1 to 2006Q4, indicate that the FMs tend to outperform alternative models such as an unrestricted VAR, Bayesian VARs (BVARs) and a typical New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NKDSGE) model in forecasting the three variables under consideration, hence, indicating the blessings of dimensionality.

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File URL: http://www.econrsa.org/node/160
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Paper provided by Economic Research Southern Africa in its series Working Papers with number 137.

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Date of creation: Apr 2009
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Handle: RePEc:rza:wpaper:137
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