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ECB Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Bank Default Risk

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  • Tom Beernaert
  • Nicolas Soenen
  • Rudi Vander Vennet

Abstract

Euro Area banks have been confronted with unprecedented monetary policy actions by the ECB. Monetary policy may affect bank risk profiles, but the consequences may differ for short-term risk versus long-term or structural bank risk. We empirically investigate the association between the ECB’s monetary policy stance and market-perceived shortterm and long-term bank risk, using the term structure of default risk captured by bank CDS spreads. The results demonstrate that, during the period 2009-2020, ECB expansionary monetary policy diminished bank default risk in the short term. However, we do not observe a similar decline in long-term bank default risk, since we document that monetary stimulus is associated with a steepening of the bank default risk curve. The reduction of bank default risk is most pronounced during the sovereign debt crisis and for periphery Euro Area banks. From 2018 onwards, monetary policy accommodation is associated with increased bank default risk, both short term and structurally, which is consistent with the risk-taking hypothesis under which banks engage in excessive risk-taking behavior in their loan and securities portfolios to compensate profitability pressure caused by persistently low rates. The increase in perceived default risk is especially visible for banks with a high reliance on deposit funding.

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  • Tom Beernaert & Nicolas Soenen & Rudi Vander Vennet, 2022. "ECB Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Bank Default Risk," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 22/1050, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  • Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:22/1050
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    2. Roccazzella, Francesco & Candelon, Bertrand, 2022. "Should we care about ECB inflation expectations?," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2022004, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    3. Lu, Yiming & Wang, Yu, 2023. "Bank liquidity hoarding and bank systemic risk: The moderating effect of economic policy uncertainty," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    4. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zhou, Hegang & Xu, Chao & Zhang, Xiaoming, 2023. "Dynamic spillover effects among international crude oil markets from the time-frequency perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    5. Martien Lamers & Thomas Present & Nicolas Soenen & Rudi Vander Vennet, 2023. "Does BRRD mitigate the bank-to-sovereign risk channel?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 23/1060, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; ECB; Bank default risk; Term structure of credit risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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