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The Implications of Ageing for Business Dynamics

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  • Igor Fedotenkov
  • Anneleen Vandeplas

Abstract

This paper studies the link between the demographic structure of populations and firm entry rates in the European Union. We find that firm entry rates have a hump-shaped relationship with human demography, with the 40-54 age group having the strongest positive impact on firm entry. Potential mechanisms through which this relationship may arise include labour market participation, demand and access to entrepreneurship (linked with experience and access to finance). Perhaps more surprisingly, firm entry again picks up with generations aged 80 and over expanding. This could relate to the fact that a larger 80+ age cohort reflects greater longevity, which in turn increases savings, reduces interest rates and therefore increases availability of external financing. When controlling for life expectancy and interest rates, the coefficient corresponding to the 80+ age cohort sharply declines and becomes insignificant. Based on the results of the analysis, we assess the implications of our results for firm entry rates by 2025 and 2030, using UN population projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Igor Fedotenkov & Anneleen Vandeplas, 2021. "The Implications of Ageing for Business Dynamics," LICOS Discussion Papers 42821, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
  • Handle: RePEc:lic:licosd:42821
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    File URL: https://feb.kuleuven.be/drc/licos/publications/dp/dp428
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Firm entry rates; demographic structure; longevity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • L29 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Other
    • M13 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - New Firms; Startups

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