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The Age-Productivity Profile:Long-Run Evidence from Italian Regions

Author

Listed:
  • Federico Barbiellini

    () (Bank of Italy)

  • Matteo Gomellini

    () (Bank of Italy)

  • Lorenzon Incoronato

    () (University College London (UCL) and Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM))

  • Paolo Piselli

    () (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

This paper leverages spatial and time-series variation in the population age structure of Italian regions to uncover the causal effect of demographic shifts on labour productivity. Such effect is analysed along a ‘first-order’ channel stemming from the direct relation between an individual’s age and productivity, and a ‘second-order’ channel that captures the productivity implications of a more or less dispersed age distribution. We propose an estimation framework that relates labour productivity to the entire age distribution of the working-age population and employs instrumental variable techniques to address endogeneity issues. The estimates return a hump-shaped age-productivity profile, with a peak between 35 and 40 years, as well as a positive productivity effect associated with a more dispersed age distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Federico Barbiellini & Matteo Gomellini & Lorenzon Incoronato & Paolo Piselli, 2020. "The Age-Productivity Profile:Long-Run Evidence from Italian Regions," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2019, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
    • Handle: RePEc:crm:wpaper:2019
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    productivity; demography; age distribution; working-age population; long-run;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • N30 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - General, International, or Comparative

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