IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/crm/wpaper/2019.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Age-Productivity Profile:Long-Run Evidence from Italian Regions

Author

Listed:
  • Federico Barbiellini

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Matteo Gomellini

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Lorenzon Incoronato

    (University College London (UCL) and Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM))

  • Paolo Piselli

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

This paper leverages spatial and time-series variation in the population age structure of Italian regions to uncover the causal effect of demographic shifts on labour productivity. Such effect is analysed along a ‘first-order’ channel stemming from the direct relation between an individual’s age and productivity, and a ‘second-order’ channel that captures the productivity implications of a more or less dispersed age distribution. We propose an estimation framework that relates labour productivity to the entire age distribution of the working-age population and employs instrumental variable techniques to address endogeneity issues. The estimates return a hump-shaped age-productivity profile, with a peak between 35 and 40 years, as well as a positive productivity effect associated with a more dispersed age distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Federico Barbiellini & Matteo Gomellini & Lorenzon Incoronato & Paolo Piselli, 2020. "The Age-Productivity Profile:Long-Run Evidence from Italian Regions," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2019, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
  • Handle: RePEc:crm:wpaper:2019
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cream-migration.org/publ_uploads/CDP_19_20.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. van Ours, J.C. & Stoeldraijer, L., 2010. "Age, Wage and Productivity," Other publications TiSEM 1521c170-405f-41a4-9bd0-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Juselius, Mikael & Takáts, Előd, 2018. "The enduring link between demography and inflation," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2018, Bank of Finland.
    3. Daron Acemoglu & Ufuk Akcigit & Murat Alp Celik, 2014. "Young, Restless and Creative: Openness to Disruption and Creative Innovations," PIER Working Paper Archive 14-004, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    4. Higgins, Matthew, 1998. "Demography, National Savings, and International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 343-369, May.
    5. James Liang & Hui Wang & Edward P. Lazear, 2018. "Demographics and Entrepreneurship," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(S1), pages 140-196.
    6. Carlo Ciccarelli & Matteo Gomellini & Paolo Sestito, 2019. "Demography and Productivity in the Italian Manufacturing Industry: Yesterday and Today," CEIS Research Paper 457, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 16 May 2019.
    7. Vegard Skirbekk, 2004. "Age and Individual Productivity: A Literature Survey," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 2(1), pages 133-154.
    8. Nicole Maestas & Kathleen J. Mullen & David Powell, 2023. "The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force, and Productivity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 306-332, April.
    9. Göbel, Christian & Zwick, Thomas, 2009. "Age and productivity: evidence from linked employer employee data," ZEW Discussion Papers 09-020, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    10. Pellegrino, Bruno & Zingales, Luigi, 2017. "Diagnosing the Italian Disease," Working Papers 269, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    11. Emanuele Felice, 2017. "The Roots of a Dual Equilibrium: GDP, Productivity and Structural Change in the Italian Regions in the Long-run (1871-2011)," Quaderni di storia economica (Economic History Working Papers) 40, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Bronzini, Raffaello & Piselli, Paolo, 2009. "Determinants of long-run regional productivity with geographical spillovers: The role of R&D, human capital and public infrastructure," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 187-199, March.
    13. Balázs Zélity, 2023. "Age diversity and aggregate productivity," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 1863-1899, July.
    14. van Ours, Jan C. & Stoeldraijer, Lenny, 2010. "Age, wage and productivity," CEPR Discussion Papers 7713, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Federico, Giovanni & Nuvolari, Alessandro & Vasta, Michelangelo, 2019. "The Origins of the Italian Regional Divide: Evidence from Real Wages, 1861–1913," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(1), pages 63-98, March.
    16. Garibaldi, Pietro & Oliveira Martins, Joaquim & van Ours, Jan (ed.), 2010. "Ageing, Health, and Productivity: The Economics of Increased Life Expectancy," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199587131.
    17. Mahlberg, Bernhard & Freund, Inga & Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Prskawetz, Alexia, 2013. "Ageing, productivity and wages in Austria," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 5-15.
    18. Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A.C. Teixeira & Sandra T. Silva, 2013. "The impact of an ageing population on economic growth: an exploratory review of the main mechanisms," FEP Working Papers 504, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    19. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle, November.
    20. David Roodman & James G. MacKinnon & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & Matthew D. Webb, 2019. "Fast and wild: Bootstrap inference in Stata using boottest," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 19(1), pages 4-60, March.
    21. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2017. "Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 174-179, May.
    22. Robert Shimer, 2001. "The Impact of Young Workers on the Aggregate Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(3), pages 969-1007.
    23. Hammermann, Andrea & Niendorf, Matthias & Schmidt, Jörg, 2019. "Age diversity and innovation: Do mixed teams of old and experienced and young and restless employees foster companies innovativeness?," IAB-Discussion Paper 201904, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    24. Oskar Nordstrom Skans, 2008. "How does the age structure affect regional productivity?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(10), pages 787-790.
    25. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jaypee Sevilla, 2001. "Economic Growth and the Demographic Transition," NBER Working Papers 8685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Bernhard Mahlberg & Inga Freund & Alexia Prskawetz, 2013. "Ageing, productivity and wages in Austria: sector level evidence," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 40(4), pages 561-584, November.
    27. Mr. Shekhar Aiyar & Mr. Christian H Ebeke, 2016. "The Impact of Workforce Aging on European Productivity," IMF Working Papers 2016/238, International Monetary Fund.
    28. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7971 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. James Feyrer, 2007. "Demographics and Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 100-109, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Igor Fedotenkov & Anneleen Vandeplas, 2021. "The Implications of Ageing for Business Dynamics," LICOS Discussion Papers 42821, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
    2. Giacomo Caracciolo & Salvatore Lo Bello & Dario Pellegrino, 2021. "An assessment on the potential impact of COVID-19 on the Italian demographic structure," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 622, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carlo Ciccarelli & Matteo Gomellini & Paolo Sestito, 2019. "Demography and Productivity in the Italian Manufacturing Industry: Yesterday and Today," CEIS Research Paper 457, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 16 May 2019.
    2. Giuseppe Croce & Andrea Ricci & Giuliana Tesauro, 2019. "Pensions reforms, workforce ageing and firm-provided welfare," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(32), pages 3480-3497, July.
    3. Allen, Steven G., 2023. "Demand for older workers: What do we know? What do we need to learn?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    4. Lucia Rizzica, 2020. "The Italian public sector workforce: recent evolution in the light of the rules on turnover," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 560, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Goldin, Ian & Koutroumpis, Pantelis & Lafond, François & Winkler, Julian, 2020. "Why is productivity slowing down?," MPRA Paper 99172, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Kampelmann, Stephan & Mahy, Benoît & Rycx, François & Vermeylen, Guillaume, 2016. "Who Is Your Perfect Match? Educational Norms, Educational Mismatch and Firm Profitability," IZA Discussion Papers 10399, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Kim, Hoolda & Song Lee, Bun, 2023. "Aging workforce, wages, and productivity: Do older workers drag productivity down in Korea?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    8. Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2017. "Optimal fertility under age-dependent labour productivity," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(2), pages 621-646, April.
    9. Ms. Izabela Karpowicz & Mrs. Nujin Suphaphiphat, 2020. "Productivity Growth and Value Chains in Four European Countries," IMF Working Papers 2020/018, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Rainer Kotschy & Uwe Sunde & Tommaso MonacelliManaging Editor, 2018. "Can education compensate the effect of population ageing on macroeconomic performance?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 33(96), pages 587-634.
    11. Serguei Kaniovski & Thomas Url & Helmut Hofer & Viola Garstenauer, 2021. "A Long-run Macroeconomic Model of the Austrian Economy (A-LMM 2.0). New Results (2021)," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 67377, February.
    12. Ana Cardoso & Paulo Guimarães & José Varejão, 2011. "Are Older Workers Worthy of Their Pay? An Empirical Investigation of Age-Productivity and Age-Wage Nexuses," De Economist, Springer, vol. 159(2), pages 95-111, June.
    13. Huang, Yi-Hou & Liang, Woan-lih & Truong, Quang-Thai & Wang, Yanzhi, 2022. "No new tricks for old dogs? Old directors and innovation performance," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    14. Mirela Cristea & Gratiela Georgiana Noja & Petru Stefea & Adrian Lucian Sala, 2020. "The Impact of Population Aging and Public Health Support on EU Labor Markets," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-27, February.
    15. Igor Fedotenkov & Anneleen Vandeplas, 2021. "The Implications of Ageing for Business Dynamics," LICOS Discussion Papers 42821, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
    16. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Weiss, Matthias, 2016. "Productivity and age: Evidence from work teams at the assembly line," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 7(C), pages 30-42.
    17. Olfa Frini & Khoutem Ben Jedidia, 2018. "The age structure change of population and labour productivity impact," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(4), pages 1831-1844.
    18. Yunus Aksoy & Henrique S. Basso & Ron P. Smith & Tobias Grasl, 2019. "Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 193-222, January.
    19. Amaral, Pedro S., 2023. "The demographic transition and the asset supply channel," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    20. Dalgaard, Carl-Johan & Hansen, Casper Worm & Strulik, Holger, 2018. "Physiological Aging around the World and Economic Growth," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 375, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    productivity; demography; age distribution; working-age population; long-run;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • N30 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - General, International, or Comparative

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:crm:wpaper:2019. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CReAM Administrator or Matthew Nibloe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cmucluk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.