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Does Trust Promote Growth?

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Abstract

We examine the effect of generalized trust on long-term economic growth. Unlike in previous studies, we use Bayesian model averaging to deal rigorously with model uncertainty and attendant omitted variable bias. In addition, we address endogeneity and assess whether the effect of trust on growth is causal. Examining more than forty regressors for nearly fifty countries, we show that trust exerts a positive effect on long-term growth and, based on the posterior inclusion probabilities, suggest that trust is an important driver of long-term growth. Our results also show that trust is key for growth in countries with a weak rule of law.

Suggested Citation

  • Roman Horváth, 2012. "Does Trust Promote Growth?," Working Papers IES 2012/09, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2012.
  • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2012_09
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    File URL: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/default/file/download/id/20076
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    Cited by:

    1. Jetter, Michael & Kristoffersen, Ingebjørg, 2017. "Financial Shocks and the Erosion of Interpersonal Trust: Evidence from Longitudinal Data," IZA Discussion Papers 11204, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    2. Forte, Anabel & Peiró-Palomino, Jesús & Tortosa-Ausina, Emili, 2015. "Does social capital matter for European regional growth?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 47-64.
    3. Peiró-Palomino, Jesús & Tortosa-Ausina, Emili, 2013. "Can trust effects on development be generalized? A response by quantile," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 377-390.
    4. Corbacho, Ana & Philipp, Julia & Ruiz-Vega, Mauricio, 2015. "Crime and Erosion of Trust: Evidence for Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 400-415.
    5. Jordaan, Jacob A. & Dima, Bogdan & Goleț, Ionuț, 2016. "Do societal values influence financial development? New evidence on the effects of post materialism and institutions on stock markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(PA), pages 197-216.
    6. Jesús Peiró-Palomino, 2016. "Social Capital and Economic Growth in Europe: Nonlinear Trends and Heterogeneous Regional Effects," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(5), pages 717-751, October.
    7. Blanco, Luisa R., 2013. "The impact of crime on trust in institutions in Mexico," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 38-55.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    trust; economic growth; Bayesian model averaging;

    JEL classification:

    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification

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