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Perceived Immigration and Voting Behavior

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  • Davide Bellucci
  • Pierluigi Conzo
  • Roberto Zotti

Abstract

A growing number of studies have found significant effects of inflows of migrants on electoral outcomes. However, the role of perceived immigration, which in many European countries is above official migration statistics, is overlooked. This paper investigates the effects of perceived threat of immigration on voting behavior, by looking at whether local elections in Italy were affected by sea arrivals of refugees before the election day. While, upon arrival, refugees cannot freely go to the destination municipality, landing episodes were discussed in the media especially before the elections, thereby influencing voters’ perceptions about the arrivals. We develop an index of exposure to arrivals that varies over time and across municipalities depending on the nationality of the incoming refugees. This index captures the impact of perceived immigration on voting behavior, on top of the effects of real immigration as proxied for by the stock of immigrants and the presence of refugee centers. Results show that, in municipalities where refugees are more expected to arrive, participation decreases, whereas protest votes and support for extreme-right, populist and anti-immigration parties increase. Since these effects are driven by areas with fast broadband availability, we argue that anti-immigration campaigns played a key role.

Suggested Citation

  • Davide Bellucci & Pierluigi Conzo & Roberto Zotti, 2019. "Perceived Immigration and Voting Behavior," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 588, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
  • Handle: RePEc:cca:wpaper:588
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Uppfattningar om invandringens storlek påverkar röstandet
      by Niclas Berggren in Nonicoclolasos on 2020-02-24 05:03:08

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    Cited by:

    1. Augusto Cerqua & Federico Zampollo, 2021. "Deeds or words? The local influence of anti-immigrant parties on foreigners’ flows in Italy," Working Papers 6/21, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    2. Gianmarco Daniele & Andrea F.M. Martinangeli & Francesco Passarelli & Willem Sas & Lisa Windsteiger, 2020. "Fear and Loathing in Times of Distress Causal Impact of Social and Economic Insecurity on Anti-Immigration Sentiment," Working Papers tax-mpg-rps-2020-17, Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance.
    3. Andrea F.M. Martinangeli & Lisa Windsteiger, 2019. "Immigration vs. Poverty: Causal Impact on Demand for Redistribution in a Survey Experiment," Working Papers tax-mpg-rps-2019-13, Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance.
    4. Chiara Dalle Nogare & Raffaele Scuderi & Enrico Bertacchini, 2021. "Immigrants, voter sentiment, and local public goods: The case of museums," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(5), pages 1087-1112, November.
    5. Windsteiger, Lisa & Martinangeli, Andrea, 2020. "Immigration vs. Poverty: Causal Impact on Demand for Redistribution in a Survey Experiment," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224537, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Andrea F.M. Martinangeli & Lisa Windsteiger, 2019. "Immigration vs. Poverty: Causal Impact on Demand for Redistribution in a Survey Experiment," Working Papers tax-mpg-rps-2019-13_3, Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance.
    7. Bratti, Massimiliano & Deiana, Claudio & Havari, Enkelejda & Mazzarella, Gianluca & Meroni, Elena Claudia, 2020. "Geographical proximity to refugee reception centres and voting," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Immigration; Voting; Political Economy; Populism; Electoral campaigns; Media exposure.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
    • P16 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems - - - Political Economy of Capitalism
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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