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Does fake news affect voting behaviour?

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  • Cantarella, Michele
  • Fraccaroli, Nicolò
  • Volpe, Roberto

Abstract

We study the impact of fake news on votes for populist parties in the Italian elections of 2018. Our empirical strategy exploits the historical variation in Italian-speaking and German-speaking voters in the Italian region of Trentino Alto-Adige/Südtirol as an exogenous source of assignment to fake news exposure. Using municipal data, we compare the effect of exposure to fake news on the vote for populist parties in the 2013 and 2018 elections. To do so, we introduce a novel indicator of populism using text mining on the Facebook posts of Italian parties before the elections. Our findings support the view that exposure to fake news favours populist parties regardless of prior support for populist parties, but also that fake news alone cannot explain most of the growth in populism.

Suggested Citation

  • Cantarella, Michele & Fraccaroli, Nicolò & Volpe, Roberto, 2023. "Does fake news affect voting behaviour?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(1).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:respol:v:52:y:2023:i:1:s0048733322001494
    DOI: 10.1016/j.respol.2022.104628
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    Cited by:

    1. Davide Bellucci & Pierluigi Conzo & Roberto Zotti, 2019. "Perceived Immigration and Voting Behavior," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 588, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    2. Boldrini, Michela & Conzo, Pierluigi & Fiore, Simona & Zotti, Roberto, 2023. "Blaming migrants doesn’t pay: the political effects of the Ebola epidemic in Italy," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202320, University of Turin.
    3. Ghazaryan, Armine & Giulietti, Corrado & Wahba, Jackline, 2022. "Terror headlines and voting," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    4. Guzi, Martin & Mikula, Štěpán, 2021. "Careful what you say: The effect of manipulative information on the 2013 Czech presidential run-off election," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    5. João Pedro Baptista & Elisete Correia & Anabela Gradim & Valeriano Piñeiro-Naval, 2021. "The Influence of Political Ideology on Fake News Belief: The Portuguese Case," Publications, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-17, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fake news; Mass media and political communication; Voting behaviour; Populism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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