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Does Fake News Affect Voting Behaviour?

Author

Listed:
  • Michele Cantarella

    (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia and University of Helsinki)

  • Nicolò Fraccaroli

    (Università di Roma "Tor Vergata")

  • Roberto Volpe

    (LUISS Guido Carli)

Abstract

We study the impact of fake news on votes for populist parties in the Italian elections of 2018. Our empirical strategy exploits the presence of Italian- and German-speaking voters in the Italian region of Trentino Alto-Adige/Südtirol as an exogenous source of assignment to fake news exposure. Using municipal data, we compare the effect of exposure to fake news on the vote for populist parties in the 2013 and 2018 elections. To do so, we introduce a novel indicator of populism using text mining on the Facebook posts of Italian parties before the elections. We find that exposure to fake news is positively correlated with vote for populist parties, but that less than half of this correlation is causal. Our findings support the view that exposure to fake news (i) favours populist parties, but also that (ii) it is positively correlated with prior support for populist parties, suggesting a self-selection mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Cantarella & Nicolò Fraccaroli & Roberto Volpe, 2020. "Does Fake News Affect Voting Behaviour?," CEIS Research Paper 493, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 17 Jun 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:493
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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Barilari & Davide Bellucci & Pierluigi Conzo & Roberto Zotti, 2025. "The political effects of (mis)perceived immigration," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(4), pages 585-605.
    2. Ghazaryan, Armine & Giulietti, Corrado & Wahba, Jackline, 2022. "Terror headlines and voting," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    3. Cantarella, Michele & Fraccaroli, Nicolò & Volpe, Roberto, 2024. "Does language prevent policy take-up? Evidence from the Italian Start-up Act," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(6).
    4. Liberini, Federica & Redoano, Michela & Russo, Antonio & Cuevas, Angel & Cuevas, Ruben, 2025. "Politics in the facebook era. Evidence from the 2016 US presidential elections," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    5. Boldrini, Michela & Conzo, Pierluigi & Fiore, Simona & Zotti, Roberto, 2023. "Blaming migrants doesn’t pay: the political effects of the Ebola epidemic in Italy," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202320, University of Turin.
    6. Nickl, Pietro Leonardo & Sultan, Mubashir & Stinson, Caedyn & Stock, Friederike & Hertwig, Ralph & Kozyreva, Anastasia, 2025. "Global Crisis or Overblown Problem? Three Tools to Clarify Contentious Issues in Misinformation Research," SocArXiv 4vhwq_v1, Center for Open Science.
    7. Jana Lasser & Segun T. Aroyehun & Fabio Carrella & Almog Simchon & David Garcia & Stephan Lewandowsky, 2023. "From alternative conceptions of honesty to alternative facts in communications by US politicians," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 7(12), pages 2140-2151, December.
    8. Guzi, Martin & Mikula, Štěpán, 2021. "Careful what you say: The effect of manipulative information on the 2013 Czech presidential run-off election," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    9. João Pedro Baptista & Elisete Correia & Anabela Gradim & Valeriano Piñeiro-Naval, 2021. "The Influence of Political Ideology on Fake News Belief: The Portuguese Case," Publications, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-17, May.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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