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Le rôle des variations de stocks dans les cycles d'activité des principaux pays industrialisés


  • Carine Bouthevillain
  • Didier Eyssartier


[eng] Although inventories are often neglected in macro-economic analysis, they highly contribute to the volatility of growth fluctuations. They are also a major source of forecasting errors. Consequently, it is strongly interesting to understand the behaviour of this variable. We first present a survey of the theoretic literature. We describe the main models and the properties they are assumed to satisfy. Then, we analyse the recent conjuncture to prove the importance of inventories in building a short-term diagnostic,. The aim of this study is to discriminate between finished goods inventories accelerator model and the output smoothing model for the main industrial countries. We try to reconcile these two apparently conflicting theories by empirically showing that the first one is frequently relevant for the very short term analysis and that the second one is valid with annual data. A set of aggregate statistical indicators show that the main industrial countries share some stylised facts but differ because of national specifities. Simple regressions including usual explicative factors allow to discuss the inventories behaviour and their implications on growth. [fre] Les stocks, souvent négligés dans l'analyse macroéconomique, jouent. pourtant un rôle important dans la volatilité des fluctuations de l'activité.. Ils constituent également l'une des sources majeures des erreurs. commises par les prévisionnistes, d'où l'intérêt que revêt une meilleure. compréhension de cette variable. Nous présentons d'abord une revue de. la littérature théorique sur le comportement de stockage en décrivant les. principales approches ainsi que les propriétés qui leurs sont adjointes.. Puis, afin de montrer l'importance qu'ont eu les stocks dans le diagnostic. conjoncturel, nous nous livrons à une analyse de la conjoncture récente.. L'objectif de notre étude est d'apporter des éléments de réponse quant. au rôle accélérateur ou contra-cyclique des variations de stocks de. produits finis dans les grands pays industrialisés. Deux théories a priori. contradictoires existent, celle du lissage de la production et celle de l'accélérateur de stocks. Nous chercherons à réconcilier empiriquement ces. deux approches en montrant la fréquente validité de la première à très. court terme et la pertinence de la seconde en données annuelles. Le calcul. de nombreuses statistiques agrégées permettra de dégager des faits. marquants et des particularités nationales au sein du G10. Enfin, à partir. de régressions élémentaires reprenant les déterminants traditionnels des. variations de stocks, on discutera des comportements de stockage et de leurs. implications sur la croissance.

Suggested Citation

  • Carine Bouthevillain & Didier Eyssartier, 1997. "Le rôle des variations de stocks dans les cycles d'activité des principaux pays industrialisés," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 62(1), pages 151-202.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1997_num_62_1_1469
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1997.1469

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Chikán, Attila & Kovács, Erzsébet & Matyusz, Zsolt & Sass, Magdolna & Vakhal, Péter, 2016. "Long-term trends in inventory investment in traditional market and post-socialist economies," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 181(PA), pages 14-23.

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