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Le rôle des variations de stocks dans les cycles d'activité des principaux pays industrialisés

Listed author(s):
  • Carine Bouthevillain
  • Didier Eyssartier
Registered author(s):

    [eng] Although inventories are often neglected in macro-economic analysis, they highly contribute to the volatility of growth fluctuations. They are also a major source of forecasting errors. Consequently, it is strongly interesting to understand the behaviour of this variable. We first present a survey of the theoretic literature. We describe the main models and the properties they are assumed to satisfy. Then, we analyse the recent conjuncture to prove the importance of inventories in building a short-term diagnostic,. The aim of this study is to discriminate between finished goods inventories accelerator model and the output smoothing model for the main industrial countries. We try to reconcile these two apparently conflicting theories by empirically showing that the first one is frequently relevant for the very short term analysis and that the second one is valid with annual data. A set of aggregate statistical indicators show that the main industrial countries share some stylised facts but differ because of national specifities. Simple regressions including usual explicative factors allow to discuss the inventories behaviour and their implications on growth. [fre] Les stocks, souvent négligés dans l'analyse macroéconomique, jouent pourtant un rôle important dans la volatilité des fluctuations de l'activité. Ils constituent également l'une des sources majeures des erreurs commises par les prévisionnistes, d'où l'intérêt que revêt une meilleure compréhension de cette variable. Nous présentons d'abord une revue de la littérature théorique sur le comportement de stockage en décrivant les principales approches ainsi que les propriétés qui leurs sont adjointes. Puis, afin de montrer l'importance qu'ont eu les stocks dans le diagnostic conjoncturel, nous nous livrons à une analyse de la conjoncture récente. L'objectif de notre étude est d'apporter des éléments de réponse quant au rôle accélérateur ou contra-cyclique des variations de stocks de produits finis dans les grands pays industrialisés. Deux théories a priori contradictoires existent, celle du lissage de la production et celle de l'accélérateur de stocks. Nous chercherons à réconcilier empiriquement ces deux approches en montrant la fréquente validité de la première à très court terme et la pertinence de la seconde en données annuelles. Le calcul de nombreuses statistiques agrégées permettra de dégager des faits marquants et des particularités nationales au sein du G10. Enfin, à partir de régressions élémentaires reprenant les déterminants traditionnels des variations de stocks, on discutera des comportements de stockage et de leurs implications sur la croissance.

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    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

    Volume (Year): 62 (1997)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 151-202

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1997_num_62_1_1469
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1997.1469
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    1. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1983. "The Production and Inventory Behavior of the American Automobile Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 365-400, June.
    2. Fair, Ray C., 1989. "The production-smoothing model is alive and well," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 353-370, November.
    3. Fukuda, Shinichi & Teruyama, Hiroshi, 1994. "Sources of Inventory Fluctuations : Some International Evidence," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 35(1), pages 37-57, June.
    4. Stéphane Gregoir & Guy Laroque, 1992. "La place des stocks dans les fluctuations conjoncturelles," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 28, pages 39-63.
    5. Alan S. Blinder, 1986. "Can the Production Smoothing Model of Inventory Behavior be Saved?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(3), pages 431-453.
    6. Blinder, Alan S, 1986. "More on the Speed of Adjustment in Inventory Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(3), pages 355-365, August.
    7. West, Kenneth D., 1990. "Evidence from seven countries on whether inventories smooth aggregate output," Engineering Costs and Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-3), pages 85-90, May.
    8. Blinder, Alan S & Maccini, Louis J, 1991. " The Resurgence of Inventory Research: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(4), pages 291-328.
    9. Eichenbaum, Martin S., 1984. "Rational expectations and the smoothing properties of inventories of finished goods," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-96, July.
    10. Giuseppe Bertola & Ricardo J. Caballero, 1990. "Kinked Adjustment Costs and Aggregate Dynamics," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 237-296 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. repec:adr:anecst:y:1992:i:28 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Kenneth D. West, 1990. "The Sources of Fluctuations in Aggregate Inventories and GNP," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 105(4), pages 939-971.
    13. Blinder, Alan S, 1982. "Inventories and Sticky Prices: More on the Microfoundations of Macroeconomics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 334-348, June.
    14. Laroque, Guy, 1989. "On the Inventory Cycle and the Instability of the Competitive Mechanism," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 911-935, July.
    15. West, Kenneth D, 1986. "A Variance Bounds Test of the Linear Quadratic Inventory Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(2), pages 374-401, April.
    16. Milne, Alistair, 1994. "The Production Smoothing Model of Inventories Revisited," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 399-407, March.
    17. Wilkinson, Maurice, 1989. "Aggregate inventory behavior in large European economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 181-194, January.
    18. Alan S. Blinder, 1981. "Retail Inventory Behavior and Business Fluctuations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(2), pages 443-520.
    19. Rossana, R J, 1993. "The Long-Run Implications of the Production Smoothing Model of Inventories: An Empirical Test," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 295-306, July-Sept.
    20. Eichenbaum, Martin, 1989. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Production Level and Production Cost Smoothing Models of Inventory Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 853-864, September.
    21. Caplin, Andrew S, 1985. "The Variability of Aggregate Demand with (S, s) Inventory Policies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1395-1409, November.
    22. Cuthbertson, Keith & Gasparro, David, 1993. "The Determinants of Manufacturing Inventories in the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(421), pages 1479-1492, November.
    23. Laroque, Guy & Rabault, Guillaume, 1995. "The Inventory Cycle: From Theory to Empirical Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 283-301, March.
    24. repec:adr:anecst:y:1992:i:28:p:02 is not listed on IDEAS
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