Loan portfolio performance and El Niño, an intervention analysis
Purpose - This paper illustrates that natural disasters can significantly threaten financial institutions serving the poor. The authors test the case of a microfinance institution (MFI) in Northern Peru, where severe El Niño events create catastrophic flooding. Design/methodology/approach - Portfolio-level, monthly data from January 1994 to October 2008 were examined using an intervention analysis. The paper tested whether the 1997-1998 El Niño increased problem loans and estimated the magnitude of the effect. Findings - The results indicate El Niño significantly increased problem loans, specifically the level of restructured loans. While restructured loans averaged 0.5 percent of the total loan portfolio before the El Niño, the estimated cumulative effect of El Niño indicates that an additional 3.6 percent of the portfolio value was restructured due to this event. Research limitations/implications - Future research could build on these results by modeling insurance-type mechanisms for the MFI. Additional research that replicates these analyses in another context would be highly valuable for comparison across natural disasters and financial institutions. Practical implications - The findings demonstrate that the correlated risk exposure of many small borrowers can significantly affect the lender and the importance of considering bank management in assessing disaster risk of a financial institution. Social implications - Lender strategies to minimize losses may require long-term restructuring that perpetuates the effects of the disaster in the community. Originality/value - This paper may be of particular value to researchers and practitioners hoping to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of MFIs concentrated in regions exposed to natural disaster risk.
Volume (Year): 71 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (May)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.emeraldinsight.com|
|Order Information:|| Postal: Emerald Group Publishing, Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, BD16 1WA, UK|
Web: http://emeraldgrouppublishing.com/products/journals/journals.htm?id=afr Email:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hennie Van Greuning & Sonja Brajovic Bratanovic, 2009. "Analyzing Banking Risk : A Framework for Assessing Corporate Governance and Risk Management, Third Edition," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2618, September.
- Andrew Worthington & Abbas Valadkhani, 2004.
"Measuring the impact of natural disasters on capital markets: an empirical application using intervention analysis,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(19), pages 2177-2186.
- Andrew Worthington & Abbas Valadkhani, 2003. "Measuring the impact of natural disasters on capital markets: An empirical application using intervention analysis," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 154, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
- Jeffrey P. Prestemon & Thomas P. Holmes, 2000. "Timber Price Dynamics Following a Natural Catastrophe," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(1), pages 145-160.
- Andreas Jobst, 2007. "Operational Risk; The Sting is Still in the Tail But the Poison Dependson the Dose," IMF Working Papers 07/239, International Monetary Fund.
- Vitaly Guzhva, 2008. "Applying intervention analysis to financial performance data: The case of US airlines and September 11th," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 32(3), pages 243-259, July.
- Lars Hultkrantz & Christina Olsson, 1997. "Chernobyl effects on domestic and inbound tourism in Sweden — A time series analysis," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 9(2), pages 239-258, March.
- Ortiz, Guillermo, 1983. "Currency Substitution in Mexico: The Dollarization Problem," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(2), pages 174-185, May.
- Jerry R. Skees & Barry J. Barnett, 2006. "Enhancing microfinance using index-based risk-transfer products," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 66(2), pages 235-250, September.
- Stephen R. Boucher & Michael R. Carter & Catherine Guirkinger, 2008. "Risk Rationing and Wealth Effects in Credit Markets: Theory and Implications for Agricultural Development," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(2), pages 409-423.
- Ani L. Katchova & Peter J. Barry, 2005. "Credit Risk Models and Agricultural Lending," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(1), pages 194-205. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)