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Credit Risk Models and Agricultural Lending

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  • Ani L. Katchova
  • Peter J. Barry

Abstract

Credit risk models are developed and used to estimate capital requirements for agricultural lenders under the New Basel Capital Accord. The study uses credit value-at-risk methods to calculate probability of default, loss given default, and expected and unexpected losses. Two applied models, CreditMetrics and Moody's KMV, are estimated using farm financial data. The results show that the necessary capital for agricultural lenders under the New Basel Accord varies substantially depending on the riskiness and granularity of the portfolio. Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Ani L. Katchova & Peter J. Barry, 2005. "Credit Risk Models and Agricultural Lending," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(1), pages 194-205.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:87:y:2005:i:1:p:194-205
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.0002-9092.2005.00711.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Odeh, Oluwarotimi O. & Featherstone, Allen M. & Sanjoy, Das, 2006. "Predicting Credit Default in an Agricultural Bank: Methods and Issues," 2006 Annual Meeting, February 5-8, 2006, Orlando, Florida 35359, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    2. Dressler, Jonathan B. & Stokes, Jeffrey R., 2006. "Mortgage Termination at AgChoice Farm Credit," 2006 Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition, October 2-3, 2006, Washington, DC 133077, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    3. Amelie Jouault & Allen M. Featherstone, 2011. "Determining the Probability of Default of Agricultural Loans in a French Bank," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 1(1), pages 1-1.
    4. Harris, James Michael & Blank, Steven C. & Erickson, Kenneth W. & Hallahan, Charles B., 2010. "Off-farm Income and Investments in Farm Assets: A Double Hurdle Approach," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 61531, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Harris, James Michael & Dillard, John & Erickson, Kenneth W. & Hallahan, Charles B., 2009. "Changes in Debt Patterns and Financial Structure of Farm Businesses: A Double Hurdle Approach," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49402, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Bandyopadhyay, Arindam, 2007. "Credit Risk Models for Managing Bank’s Agricultural Loan Portfolio," MPRA Paper 5358, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Durguner, Seda & Barry, Peter J. & Katchova, Ani L., 2006. "Credit Scoring Models: A Comparison between Crop and Livestock Farms," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21431, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    8. Taghikhah, Firouzeh & Borevitz, Justin & Costanza, Robert & Voinov, Alexey, 2022. "DAESim: A dynamic agro-ecosystem simulation model for natural capital assessment," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 468(C).
    9. Francisco Ascui & Theodor F. Cojoianu, 2019. "Implementing natural capital credit risk assessment in agricultural lending," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(6), pages 1234-1249, September.
    10. Johannes I. F. Henning & Dominique A. Bougard & Henry Jordaan & Nicolette Matthews, 2019. "Factors Affecting Successful Agricultural Loan Applications: The Case of a South African Credit Provider," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-15, November.
    11. Geoffroy Enjolras & Philippe Madiès, 2019. "The determinants of loan acceptance: a case study of French farms," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(1), pages 358-371.
    12. Benjamin Collier & Ani L. Katchova & Jerry R. Skees, 2011. "Loan portfolio performance and El Niño, an intervention analysis," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 71(1), pages 98-119, May.
    13. Chitralada Chaiya & Sikandar Sikandar & Pichate Pinthong & Shahab E. Saqib & Niaz Ali, 2023. "The Impact of Formal Agricultural Credit on Farm Productivity and Its Utilization in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-14, January.
    14. Frederick Murdoch Quaye & Denis Nadolnyak & Valentina Hartarska, 2017. "Factors Affecting Farm Loan Delinquency in the Southeast," Research in Applied Economics, Macrothink Institute, vol. 9(4), pages 75-92, December.
    15. Zhang, Tianwei & Ellinger, Paul N., 2006. "Credit Risk and Financial Performance Assessment of Illinois Farmers: A Comparison of Approaches with Farm Accounting Data," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21384, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    16. Jagdeep Kaur Brar & Antoine Kornprobst & Willard John Braun & Matthew Davison & Warren Hare, 2021. "A Case Study of the Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Loan Credit Risk," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(23), pages 1-23, November.
    17. Katchova, Ani L. & Nam, Sangjeong, 2005. "Credit Risk Migration Analysis Focused on Farm Business Characteristics and Business Cycles," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19451, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    18. Glenn D. Pederson & Lyubov Zech, 2009. "Assessing Credit Risk in an Agricultural Loan Portfolio," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 57(2), pages 169-185, June.
    19. Anders Grosen & Pernille Jessen & Thomas Kokholm, 2014. "An asset protection scheme for banks exposed to troubled loan portfolios," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(4), pages 568-588, October.
    20. Quaye, Frederick & Hartarska, Valentina & Nadolnyak, Denis, 2015. "Farmer Credit Delinquency in Southeastern US: Factors and Behavior Prediction," 2015 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2015, Atlanta, Georgia 196914, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    21. Pederson, Glenn D. & Chu, Yu-Szu & Richardson, D. Wynn, 2011. "Community Bank Assessment of Agricultural Portfolio Risk Exposure: The Literature and the Methods in Use," Staff Papers 107483, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    22. Benjamin, Olatunbosun, 2012. "Improving credit allocation to sustainable agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa: Review of bio-based economy benefits," MPRA Paper 41313, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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