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Chernobyl effects on domestic and inbound tourism in Sweden — A time series analysis

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  • Lars Hultkrantz
  • Christina Olsson

Abstract

This paper estimates the impact of the Chernobyl nuclear accident on domestic and international tourism in Sweden. From ARIMA time series forecasts, outlier search, and intervention analysis based on regional monthly accommodation data from 1978–1989, no effect on domestic tourism is found. However, there is an enduring deterrence effect on incoming tourism. The loss of gross revenue from incoming tourism because of the Chernobyl accident, is estimated to 2.5 billion SEK. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1997

Suggested Citation

  • Lars Hultkrantz & Christina Olsson, 1997. "Chernobyl effects on domestic and inbound tourism in Sweden — A time series analysis," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 9(2), pages 239-258, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:9:y:1997:i:2:p:239-258
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02441380
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bell, William R. & Wilcox, David W., 1993. "The effect of sampling error on the time series behavior of consumption data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 235-265.
    2. Rugg, Donald, 1973. "The Choice of Journey Destination: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 55(1), pages 64-72, February.
    3. Opaluch James J. & Swallow Stephen K. & Weaver Thomas & Wessells Christopher W. & Wichelns Dennis, 1993. "Evaluating Impacts from Noxious Facilities: Including Public Preferences in Current Siting Mechanisms," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 41-59, January.
    4. Gregory, Allan W. & Wirjanto, Tony, 1993. "The effect of sampling error on the time series behavior of consumption data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 267-273.
    5. W. Hanemann & Per-Olov Johansson & Bengt Kriström & Leif Mattsson, 1992. "Natural resources damages from Chernobyl," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 2(5), pages 523-525, September.
    6. Enders, Walter & Sandler, Todd & Parise, Gerald F, 1992. "An Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Terrorism on Tourism," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 531-554.
    7. W. Douglass Shaw, 1992. "Searching for the Opportunity Cost of an Individual's Time," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 68(1), pages 107-115.
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    Cited by:

    1. Arias Martín, Pedro, 2013. "La situación del empleo en turismo rural en España/The Employment Situation in Rural Tourism in Spain," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 31, pages 257(22)-257, Enero.
    2. Benjamin Collier & Ani L. Katchova & Jerry R. Skees, 2011. "Loan portfolio performance and El Niño, an intervention analysis," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 71(1), pages 98-119, May.
    3. Amitrajeet Batabyal & Hamid Beladi, 2008. "Visitor classification, vehicle breakdowns, and the provision of transport for tourism," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 99-105, December.
    4. Tore Söderqvist, 2000. "Natural Resources Damage from Chernobyl: Further Results," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 16(3), pages 343-346, July.

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    Keywords

    tourism; Chernobyl; intervention analysis;

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