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Design and Rating of Risk-Contingent Credit for Balancing Business and Financial Risks for Kenyan Farmers

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  • Shee, A.
  • Turvey, C.
  • You, L.

Abstract

Weather related agricultural risks and limited access to credit are serious impediments to agricultural productivity and growth in developing countries. This paper describes a novel insurance linked credit model piloted in Kenya, where insurance markets are effectively absent and farmers do not borrow because of the risk of losing their collateral. One of the challenges in deigning bundled credit products, in the absence of traded securities, is the actuarial pricing and risk rating of the insurance and the loan product. We develop a rainfall linked risk-contingent credit that transfers drought risk related perils from borrower to lender via insurance mechanism that provide a balance between business and credit risks for smallholder farmers. We describe the methodology used to design and rating of a risk-contingent structured operating agricultural credit instrument using CHIRPS rainfall data from 1981-2016 in Kenya. We illustrate the use of Monte Carlo methods to risk modelling that can be integrated within general insurance and credit rating framework. The innovative design and methodology presented in this paper are as important as the product delivery mechanism and will be of interest to specialists in development economics and agricultural finance.

Suggested Citation

  • Shee, A. & Turvey, C. & You, L., 2018. "Design and Rating of Risk-Contingent Credit for Balancing Business and Financial Risks for Kenyan Farmers," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 276005, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae18:276005
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.276005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Apurba Shee & Calum G. Turvey, 2012. "Collateral-free lending with risk-contingent credit for agricultural development: indemnifying loans against pulse crop price risk in India," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43(5), pages 561-574, September.
    2. Gin, Xavier & Yang, Dean, 2009. "Insurance, credit, and technology adoption: Field experimental evidencefrom Malawi," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 1-11, May.
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    4. Apurba Shee & Calum G. Turvey & Joshua Woodard, 2015. "A field study for assessing risk-contingent credit for Kenyan pastoralists and dairy farmers," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 75(3), pages 330-348, September.
    5. Santos, Paulo & Barrett, Christopher B., 2011. "Persistent poverty and informal credit," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 337-347, November.
    6. Sommarat Chantarat & Andrew G. Mude & Christopher B. Barrett & Michael R. Carter, 2013. "Designing Index-Based Livestock Insurance for Managing Asset Risk in Northern Kenya," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(1), pages 205-237, March.
    7. Abhijit Banerjee & Esther Duflo & Rachel Glennerster & Cynthia Kinnan, 2015. "The Miracle of Microfinance? Evidence from a Randomized Evaluation," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 22-53, January.
    8. Dean Karlan & Ed Kutsoati & Margaret McMillan & Chris Udry, 2011. "Crop Price Indemnified Loans for Farmers: A Pilot Experiment in Rural Ghana," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 78(1), pages 37-55, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ndegwa, Michael K. & Ward, Patrick S. & Shee, Apurba & You, Liangzhi, 2025. "Rural credit, food security, and resilience: An empirical evaluation from Kenya," IFPRI discussion papers 2351, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Alain de Janvry & Elisabeth Sadoulet, 2019. "Transforming developing country agriculture: Removing adoption constraints and promoting inclusive value chain development," Working Papers hal-02287668, HAL.
    3. de Janvry, Alain & Sadoulet, Elisabeth, 2020. "Using agriculture for development: Supply- and demand-side approaches," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Balana, B. B. & Mekonnen, D. & Haile, B. & Hagos, Fitsum & Yimam, S. & Ringler, C., 2022. "Demand and supply constraints of credit in smallholder farming: evidence from Ethiopia and Tanzania," Papers published in Journals (Open Access), International Water Management Institute, pages 159:106033..
    5. Josephson, Anna & Michler, Jeffrey D. & Kilic, Talip & Murray, Siobhan, 2026. "The mismeasure of weather: Using earth observation data for estimation of socioeconomic outcomes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    6. Ndegwa, Michael K. & Shee, Apurba & Ward, Patrick S. & Liu, Yanyan & Turvey, Calum G. & You, Liangzhi, 2024. "Impact of risk-contingent credit and traditional credit on smallholders’ agricultural investment and productivity: Experimental evidence from Kenya," IFPRI discussion papers 2303, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Alain de Janvry & Élisabeth Sadoulet, 2023. "Seven propositions to support and finance the agricultural sector in sub-Saharan Africa in the context of climate change WP324," Working Papers hal-04123941, HAL.
    8. Möllmann, Johannes & Buchholz, Matthias & Kölle, Wienand & Musshoff, Oliver, 2020. "Do remotely-sensed vegetation health indices explain credit risk in agricultural microfinance?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    9. Alain De Janvry & Elisabeth Sadoulet, 2023. "Sept propositions pour soutenir et financer le secteur agricole en Afrique subsaharienne dans le contexte du changement climatique WP324," Working Papers hal-04123925, HAL.

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