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Design and rating of risk-contingent credit for balancing business and financial risks for Kenyan farmers

Author

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  • Apurba Shee
  • Calum G. Turvey
  • Liangzhi You

Abstract

Weather-related agricultural risks and limited access to credit are serious impediments to agricultural productivity and growth in developing countries. This paper describes a novel insurance linked credit model piloted in Kenya, where insurance markets are effectively absent, and farmers do not borrow because of the risk of losing their collateral. One of the challenges in deigning bundled credit products, in the absence of traded securities, is the actuarial pricing and risk rating of the insurance and the loan product. We develop a rainfall linked risk-contingent credit that transfers drought risk related perils from borrower to lender via insurance mechanism that provide a balance between business and credit risks for smallholder farmers. We describe the methodology used to design and rating of a risk-contingent structured operating agricultural credit instrument using CHIRPS rainfall data from 1981–2016 in Kenya. We illustrate the use of Monte Carlo methods to risk modelling that can be integrated within the general insurance and credit rating framework. The innovative design and methodology presented in this paper are as important as the product delivery mechanism and will be of interest to specialists in development economics and agricultural finance.

Suggested Citation

  • Apurba Shee & Calum G. Turvey & Liangzhi You, 2019. "Design and rating of risk-contingent credit for balancing business and financial risks for Kenyan farmers," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(50), pages 5447-5465, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:51:y:2019:i:50:p:5447-5465
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2019.1613502
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    Cited by:

    1. Alain de Janvry & Elisabeth Sadoulet, 2019. "Transforming developing country agriculture: Removing adoption constraints and promoting inclusive value chain development," Working Papers hal-02287668, HAL.
    2. de Janvry, Alain & Sadoulet, Elisabeth, 2020. "Using agriculture for development: Supply- and demand-side approaches," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Alain de Janvry & Élisabeth Sadoulet, 2023. "Seven propositions to support and finance the agricultural sector in sub-Saharan Africa in the context of climate change WP324," Working Papers hal-04123941, HAL.
    4. Josephson, Anna & Michler, Jeffrey D. & Kilic, Talip & Murray, Siobhan, 2026. "The mismeasure of weather: Using earth observation data for estimation of socioeconomic outcomes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    5. Möllmann, Johannes & Buchholz, Matthias & Kölle, Wienand & Musshoff, Oliver, 2020. "Do remotely-sensed vegetation health indices explain credit risk in agricultural microfinance?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    6. Alain De Janvry & Elisabeth Sadoulet, 2023. "Sept propositions pour soutenir et financer le secteur agricole en Afrique subsaharienne dans le contexte du changement climatique WP324," Working Papers hal-04123925, HAL.
    7. Ndegwa, Michael K. & Ward, Patrick S. & Shee, Apurba & You, Liangzhi, 2025. "Rural credit, food security, and resilience: An empirical evaluation from Kenya," IFPRI discussion papers 2351, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. Balana, B. B. & Mekonnen, D. & Haile, B. & Hagos, Fitsum & Yimam, S. & Ringler, C., 2022. "Demand and supply constraints of credit in smallholder farming: evidence from Ethiopia and Tanzania," Papers published in Journals (Open Access), International Water Management Institute, pages 159:106033..
    9. Ndegwa, Michael K. & Shee, Apurba & Ward, Patrick S. & Liu, Yanyan & Turvey, Calum G. & You, Liangzhi, 2024. "Impact of risk-contingent credit and traditional credit on smallholders’ agricultural investment and productivity: Experimental evidence from Kenya," IFPRI discussion papers 2303, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

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