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The study of co-movement risk in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative

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  • Hsu, Ching-Chi
  • Chien, FengSheng

Abstract

This study examines the potential risks of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on the comovements of international stock markets. Using stock markets of related countries as a case study, we implement an asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation model to estimate dynamic conditional correlations between the China stock market and related stock markets. The results of testing the structural changes show that the breakpoints of dynamic conditional correlations are within the announcement dates of BRI, documenting that the comovements between China's stock market and related stock markets significantly increase following BRI actions. The positive comovements lead to a stronger volatility spillover effect when China's stock market is more volatile. To investigate the downside risk of BRI actions, we evaluate the performance of portfolio strategies by introducing gold. The findings show that portfolios composed of gold and stock markets perform well. These results suggest that using gold as a hedge could effectively increase the diversification benefits and reduce downside risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Hsu, Ching-Chi & Chien, FengSheng, 2022. "The study of co-movement risk in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1130-1152.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:80:y:2022:i:c:p:1130-1152
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2022.02.064
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Comovements; Belt and road initiative; Asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation; Volatility spillover effect; Gold;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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