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Economic Integration and the Co-movement of Stock Returns

  • Morgado, Pedro
  • Tavares, José

In this paper we analyze the determinants of co-movements in stock returns among 40 developed and emerging markets, from the 1970s to the 1990s. We provide empirical estimates of the impact of bilateral indicators of economic integration such as bilateral trade intensity, the dissimilarity of export structures, the asymmetry of output growth and bilateral real exchange rate volatility. We find that each indicator has the expected effect on the correlation of stock returns: trade intensity increases the correlation of stock returns, while real exchange rate volatility, the asymmetry of output growth and the degree of export dissimilarity decrease it. We also find that countries with more developed and more analogous institutions - in terms of either rule of law or civil liberties - display a higher correlation of stock returns.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6519.

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Date of creation: Oct 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6519
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  1. William N. Goetzmann & Lingfeng Li & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2005. "Long-Term Global Market Correlations," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-38, January.
  2. Dumas, Bernard & Harvey, Campbell R. & Ruiz, Pierre, 2003. "Are correlations of stock returns justified by subsequent changes in national outputs?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 777-811, November.
  3. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Zhang, Xiaoyan, 2005. "International Stock Return Comovements," Working Papers 06-3, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
  4. Rose, Andrew, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," Seminar Papers 678, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  5. Ramchand, Latha & Susmel, Raul, 1998. "Volatility and cross correlation across major stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 397-416, October.
  6. Heaney, Richard & Hooper, Vince, 2002. "Regional Integration of Stock Markets in Latin America," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 17, pages 745-760.
  7. Larrain Felipe & Jose Tavares, 2003. "Regional Currencies Versus Dollarization: Options for Asia and the Americas," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 35-49.
  8. Garcia Pascual, Antonio, 2003. "Assessing European stock markets (co)integration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 197-203, February.
  9. Marco Del Negro & Robin Brooks, 2002. "International Stock Returns and Market Integration; A Regional Perspective," IMF Working Papers 02/202, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Heston, Steven L. & Rouwenhorst, K. Geert, 1994. "Does industrial structure explain the benefits of international diversification?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-27, August.
  11. Roll, Richard, 1992. " Industrial Structure and the Comparative Behavior of International Stock Market Indices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 3-41, March.
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