IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v39y2015icp311-325.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An analysis of returns and volatility spillovers and their determinants in emerging Asian and Middle Eastern countries

Author

Listed:
  • Balli, Faruk
  • Hajhoj, Hassan Rafdan
  • Basher, Syed Abul
  • Ghassan, Hassan Belkacem

Abstract

This study investigates the return spillovers and volatility spillovers from developed markets (e.g., Europe, Japan and the US) into the financial markets of selected emerging countries in Asia and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Based on constant and trend spillover models, we find evidence of significant spillover effects from developed markets to emerging markets. The results from variance ratios indicate the dominance of US shocks across all emerging markets, though the effect varies widely among countries. New to these literature, we conduct an empirical analysis quantifying the underlying determinants affecting the extent of shock spillovers. The results show that bilateral factors such as trade volume, portfolio investment and distance are significant in explaining the spillover effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Balli, Faruk & Hajhoj, Hassan Rafdan & Basher, Syed Abul & Ghassan, Hassan Belkacem, 2015. "An analysis of returns and volatility spillovers and their determinants in emerging Asian and Middle Eastern countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 311-325.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:39:y:2015:i:c:p:311-325
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2015.04.013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S105905601500088X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.iref.2015.04.013?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guglielmo Caporale & Nikitas Pittis & Nicola Spagnolo, 2006. "Volatility transmission and financial crises," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 30(3), pages 376-390, September.
    2. Brooks, Robin & Del Negro, Marco, 2004. "The rise in comovement across national stock markets: market integration or IT bubble?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(5), pages 659-680, December.
    3. Lucey, Brian M. & Zhang, QiYu, 2010. "Does cultural distance matter in international stock market comovement? Evidence from emerging economies around the world," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 62-78, March.
    4. Jian Yang & Cheng Hsiao & Qi Li & Zijun Wang, 2006. "The emerging market crisis and stock market linkages: further evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(6), pages 727-744, September.
    5. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2000. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 565-613, April.
    6. Neaime, Simon, 2012. "The global financial crisis, financial linkages and correlations in returns and volatilities in emerging MENA stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 268-282.
    7. Balli, Faruk & Balli, Hatice O., 2011. "Sectoral equity returns in the Euro region: Is there any room for reducing portfolio risk?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 89-106.
    8. Yilmaz, Kamil, 2010. "Return and volatility spillovers among the East Asian equity markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 304-313, June.
    9. Mayer, Thierry & Zignago, Soledad, 2006. "Notes on CEPII’s distances measures," MPRA Paper 26469, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2005. "Does financial liberalization spur growth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 3-55, July.
    11. Scheicher, Martin, 2001. "The Comovements of Stock Markets in Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(1), pages 27-39, January.
    12. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January.
    13. Campbell, John Y & Hamao, Yasushi, 1992. "Predictable Stock Returns in the United States and Japan: A Study of Long-Term Capital Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 43-69, March.
    14. Bekaert, G. & Harvey, C. R. & Lumsdaine, R. L., 2002. "The dynamics of emerging market equity flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 295-350, June.
    15. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1999. "Are Asian stock market fluctuations due mainly to intra-regional contagion effects? Evidence based on Asian emerging stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 251-282, August.
    16. Helen Higgs & Andrew Worthington, 2004. "Transmission of returns and volatility in art markets: a multivariate GARCH analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 217-222.
    17. Andrew Worthington & Helen Higgs, 2004. "Transmission of equity returns and volatility in Asian developed and emerging markets: a multivariate GARCH analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 71-80.
    18. Balli, Faruk & Basher, Syed Abul & Jean Louis, Rosmy, 2013. "Sectoral equity returns and portfolio diversification opportunities across the GCC region," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 33-48.
    19. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    20. Gutierrez, Jose A. & Martinez, Valeria & Tse, Yiuman, 2009. "Where does return and volatility come from? The case of Asian ETFs," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 671-679, October.
    21. Pretorius, Elna, 2002. "Economic determinants of emerging stock market interdependence," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 84-105, March.
    22. Balli, Faruk & Balli, Hatice Ozer & Luu, Mong Ngoc, 2014. "Diversification across ASEAN-wide sectoral and national equity returns," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 398-407.
    23. Baele, Lieven, 2005. "Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(2), pages 373-401, June.
    24. Chen, Nai-fu & Zhang, Feng, 1997. "Correlations, trades and stock returns of the Pacific-Basin markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 5(5), pages 559-577, December.
    25. Umutlu, Mehmet & Akdeniz, Levent & Altay-Salih, Aslihan, 2010. "The degree of financial liberalization and aggregated stock-return volatility in emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 509-521, March.
    26. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Cipollini, Andrea & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2005. "Testing for contagion: a conditional correlation analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 476-489, June.
    27. Khalifa, Ahmed A.A. & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Otranto, Edoardo, 2014. "Patterns of volatility transmissions within regime switching across GCC and global markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 512-524.
    28. Charlotte Christiansen, 2007. "Volatility‐Spillover Effects in European Bond Markets," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 13(5), pages 923-948, November.
    29. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    30. Jinjarak, Yothin & Wongswan, Jon & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2011. "International fund investment and local market returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 572-587, March.
    31. Yiuman Tse & Jose A. Gutierrez, 2009. "Where does Volatility and Return Come From? The Case of Asian ETFs," Working Papers 0063, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.
    32. Chen, Gong-meng & Firth, Michael & Meng Rui, Oliver, 2002. "Stock market linkages: Evidence from Latin America," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1113-1141, June.
    33. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2002. "Information and the Change in the Paradigm in Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 460-501, June.
    34. Hammoudeh, Shawkat M. & Yuan, Yuan & McAleer, Michael, 2009. "Shock and volatility spillovers among equity sectors of the Gulf Arab stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 829-842, August.
    35. Carrieri, Francesca & Errunza, Vihang & Hogan, Ked, 2007. "Characterizing World Market Integration through Time," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(4), pages 915-940, December.
    36. Graham, Michael & Kiviaho, Jarno & Nikkinen, Jussi, 2012. "Integration of 22 emerging stock markets: A three-dimensional analysis," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 34-47.
    37. Ken Miyajima & Ilhyock Shim, 2014. "Asset managers in emerging market economies," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    38. Luc Bauwens & Sébastien Laurent & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109, January.
    39. Hatice Ozer Balli & Faruk Balli & Rosmy Jean Louis, 2013. "Time-Varying Spillover Effects on Sectoral Equity Returns," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 67-91, March.
    40. Susmel, Raul, 2001. "Extreme observations and diversification in Latin American emerging equity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(7), pages 971-986, December.
    41. Hilliard, Jimmy E, 1979. "The Relationship between Equity Indices on World Exchanges," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 103-114, March.
    42. Robert F. Engle & Giampiero M. Gallo & Margherita Velucchi, 2012. "Volatility Spillovers in East Asian Financial Markets: A Mem-Based Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 222-223, February.
    43. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1998. "Capital Control Liberalization and Stock Market Development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1169-1183, July.
    44. Ng, Angela, 2000. "Volatility spillover effects from Japan and the US to the Pacific-Basin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 207-233, April.
    45. Nicholas Tay & Zhen Zhu, 2000. "Correlations in Returns and Volatilities in Pacific-Rim Stock Markets," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 27-47, January.
    46. Diamandis, Panayiotis F., 2009. "International stock market linkages: Evidence from Latin America," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 13-30.
    47. Yu, Jung-Suk & Hassan, M. Kabir, 2008. "Global and regional integration of the Middle East and North African (MENA) stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 482-504, August.
    48. Bracker, Kevin & Docking, Diane Scott & Koch, Paul D., 1999. "Economic determinants of evolution in international stock market integration," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 1-27, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Balli, Faruk & Balli, Hatice O. & Jean Louis, Rosmy & Vo, Tuan Kiet, 2015. "The transmission of market shocks and bilateral linkages: Evidence from emerging economies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 349-357.
    2. Faruk Balli & Xuan Hu & Faisal Rana, 2020. "Bond market integration of emerging economies and bilateral linkages," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(3), pages 2039-2062, September.
    3. Beirne, John & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Schulze-Ghattas, Marianne & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2010. "Global and regional spillovers in emerging stock markets: A multivariate GARCH-in-mean analysis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 250-260, September.
    4. Roni Bhowmik & Abbas Ghulam & Wang Shouyang, 2018. "Return and Volatility Spillovers Effects: Study of Asian Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 97-119, April.
    5. Marcel Aloy & Gilles de Truchis & Gilles Dufrénot & Benjamin Keddad, 2013. "Shift-Volatility Transmission in East Asian Equity Markets," Working Papers halshs-00935364, HAL.
    6. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-500 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ziadat, Salem Adel & Herbst, Patrick & McMillan, David G., 2020. "Inter- and intra-regional stock market relations for the GCC bloc," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    8. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "Causal effects of the United States and Japan on Pacific-Rim stock markets: nonparametric quantile causality approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(53), pages 5712-5727, November.
    9. Andreou, Elena & Matsi, Maria & Savvides, Andreas, 2013. "Stock and foreign exchange market linkages in emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 248-268.
    10. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2003. "Emerging markets finance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 3-56, February.
    11. Balcılar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2015. "Regional and global spillovers and diversification opportunities in the GCC equity sectors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 160-187.
    12. Oikonomikou, Leoni Eleni, 2018. "Modeling financial market volatility in transition markets: a multivariate case," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 307-322.
    13. Balli, Faruk & Basher, Syed Abul & Jean Louis, Rosmy, 2013. "Sectoral equity returns and portfolio diversification opportunities across the GCC region," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 33-48.
    14. Chen, Peng, 2018. "Understanding international stock market comovements: A comparison of developed and emerging markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 451-464.
    15. Ahmed El Ghini & Youssef Saidi, 2017. "Return and volatility spillovers in the Moroccan stock market during the financial crisis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1481-1504, June.
    16. Balli, Faruk & Balli, Hatice Ozer & Luu, Mong Ngoc, 2014. "Diversification across ASEAN-wide sectoral and national equity returns," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 398-407.
    17. Alotaibi, Abdullah R. & Mishra, Anil V., 2015. "Global and regional volatility spillovers to GCC stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 38-49.
    18. Guesmi, Khaled & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "How strong is the global integration of emerging market regions? An empirical assessment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2517-2527.
    19. Yarovaya, Larisa & Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Goodell, John W. & Lucey, Brian & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2022. "Rethinking financial contagion: Information transmission mechanism during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    20. Awartani, Basel & Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Shiab, Mohammad Al, 2013. "Directional spillovers from the U.S. and the Saudi market to equities in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 224-242.
    21. Muhammad Niaz Khan & Suzanne G. M. Fifield & Nongnuch Tantisantiwong & David M. Power, 2022. "Changes in co-movement and risk transmission between South Asian stock markets amidst the development of regional co-operation," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 36(1), pages 87-117, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Return spillovers; Volatility spillovers; Market integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:39:y:2015:i:c:p:311-325. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.