IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/resene/v36y2014i2p436-454.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Capacity decisions with demand fluctuations and carbon leakage

Author

Listed:
  • Meunier, Guy
  • Ponssard, Jean-Pierre

Abstract

For carbon-intensive, internationally-traded industrial goods, a unilateral increase in the domestic CO2 price may result in the reduction of the domestic production but an increase of imports. In such sectors as electricity, cement and steel, the trade flows result more from short-term regional disequilibria between supply and demand than from international competition. This paper formalizes this empirical observation and characterizes its impact on carbon leakage. Domestic firms invest in domestic plants under uncertain domestic demand conditions; then, as uncertainty unfolds, they may supply the domestic market from their domestic plants or from imports. We prove that there would be no leakage in the short term (without capacity adjustment) but that there would be in the long term (with capacity adjustment). Furthermore the larger the uncertainty, the larger the leakage. We also characterize the impact of uncertainty on the (short and long term) pass-through rates of the carbon price. In the concluding section we discuss the implications of these results for the evaluation of climate policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Meunier, Guy & Ponssard, Jean-Pierre, 2014. "Capacity decisions with demand fluctuations and carbon leakage," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 436-454.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:resene:v:36:y:2014:i:2:p:436-454
    DOI: 10.1016/j.reseneeco.2014.01.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0928765514000232
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2014.01.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guy Meunier & Jean‐Pierre Ponssard & Catherine Thomas, 2016. "Capacity Investment under Demand Uncertainty: The Role of Imports in the U.S. Cement Industry," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 455-486, April.
    2. Jean Pierre Ponssard & Neil Walker, 2008. "EU emissions trading and the cement sector: a spatial competition analysis," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(5), pages 467-493, September.
    3. Meunier, Guy & Ponssard, Jean-Pierre & Quirion, Philippe, 2014. "Carbon leakage and capacity-based allocations: Is the EU right?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 262-279.
    4. Bushnell, James & Chen, Yihsu, 2012. "Allocation and leakage in regional cap-and-trade markets for CO2," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 647-668.
    5. Elliott, Joshua & Fullerton, Don, 2014. "Can a unilateral carbon tax reduce emissions elsewhere?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 6-21.
    6. Thomas Rutherford, 1992. "The Welfare Effects of Fossil Carbon Restrictions: Results from a Recursively Dynamic Trade Model," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 112, OECD Publishing.
    7. Balistreri, Edward J. & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2012. "Subglobal carbon policy and the competitive selection of heterogeneous firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S2), pages 190-197.
    8. repec:adr:anecst:y:1989:i:15-16:p:13 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Carraro, Carlo & Siniscalco, Domenico, 1993. "Strategies for the international protection of the environment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 309-328, October.
    10. Marcel Boyer & Michel Moreaux, 1989. "Uncertainty, Capacity and Flexibility: the Monopoly Case," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 15-16, pages 291-313.
    11. Guy Meunier & Jean-Pierre Ponssard, 2012. "A Sectoral Approach Balancing Global Efficiency and Equity," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 53(4), pages 533-552, December.
    12. Roland Ismer & Karsten Neuhoff, 2007. "Border tax adjustment: a feasible way to support stringent emission trading," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 137-164, October.
    13. Krugman, Paul, 1980. "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 950-959, December.
    14. Brander, James A., 1981. "Intra-industry trade in identical commodities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, February.
    15. Barrett, Scott, 1994. "Self-Enforcing International Environmental Agreements," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 46(0), pages 878-894, Supplemen.
    16. Christina Hood, 2010. "Reviewing Existing and Proposed Emissions Trading Systems," IEA Energy Papers 2010/13, OECD Publishing.
    17. Michel Demers, 1991. "Investment under Uncertainty, Irreversibility and the Arrival of Information Over Time," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 333-350.
    18. Stephen P. Ryan, 2012. "The Costs of Environmental Regulation in a Concentrated Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(3), pages 1019-1061, May.
    19. Frédéric Branger, Philippe Quirion, Julien Chevallier, 2017. "Carbon Leakage and Competitiveness of Cement and Steel Industries Under the EU ETS: Much Ado About Nothing," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    20. Meredith Fowlie & Mar Reguant & Stephen P. Ryan, 2016. "Market-Based Emissions Regulation and Industry Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 249-302.
    21. Di Maria, C. & van der Werf, E.H., 2005. "Carbon Leakage Revisited : Unilateral Climate Policy with Directed Technical Change," Discussion Paper 2005-68, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    22. Michael Grubb & Karsten Neuhoff, 2006. "Allocation and competitiveness in the EU emissions trading scheme: policy overview," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 7-30, January.
    23. Felder Stefan & Rutherford Thomas F., 1993. "Unilateral CO2 Reductions and Carbon Leakage: The Consequences of International Trade in Oil and Basic Materials," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 162-176, September.
    24. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September.
    25. Huntley Schaller & Fanny Demers & Michel Demers, 1993. "Investments Under Uncertainty and Irreversibility," Carleton Economic Papers 93-10, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised Sep 1990.
    26. Fischer, Carolyn & Fox, Alan K., 2012. "Comparing policies to combat emissions leakage: Border carbon adjustments versus rebates," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 199-216.
    27. Reyer Gerlagh & Onno Kuik, 2007. "Carbon Leakage with International Technology Spillovers," Working Papers 2007.33, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    28. Jean J. Gabszewicz & Sougata Poddar, 1997. "Demand fluctuations and capacity utilization under duopoly," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 10(1), pages 131-146.
    29. Frederic H. Murphy & Yves Smeers, 2005. "Generation Capacity Expansion in Imperfectly Competitive Restructured Electricity Markets," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 53(4), pages 646-661, August.
    30. Corrado Maria & Edwin Werf, 2008. "Carbon leakage revisited: unilateral climate policy with directed technical change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 39(2), pages 55-74, February.
    31. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1971. "Increasing risk II: Its economic consequences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 66-84, March.
    32. Kenneth J. Arrow & Anthony C. Fisher, 1974. "Environmental Preservation, Uncertainty, and Irreversibility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 88(2), pages 312-319.
    33. repec:dau:papers:123456789/10174 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Claude Henry, 1974. "Investment decisions under uncertainty: The "irreversibility effect"," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/327343, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    35. Babiker, Mustafa H., 2005. "Climate change policy, market structure, and carbon leakage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 421-445, March.
    36. Robert A. Jones & Joseph M. Ostroy, 1984. "Flexibility and Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 13-32.
    37. Henry, Claude, 1974. "Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty: The "Irreversibility Effect."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 1006-1012, December.
    38. Golombek Rolf & Hoel Michael, 2004. "Unilateral Emission Reductions and Cross-Country Technology Spillovers," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-27, September.
    39. Krugman, Paul R., 1979. "Increasing returns, monopolistic competition, and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 469-479, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Leroux, Justin & Spiro, Daniel, 2018. "Leading the unwilling: Unilateral strategies to prevent arctic oil exploration," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 125-149.
    2. Meunier, Guy & Ponssard, Jean-Pierre & Quirion, Philippe, 2014. "Carbon leakage and capacity-based allocations: Is the EU right?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 262-279.
    3. Gregory Cook & Jean-Pierre Ponssard, 2011. "A proposal for the renewal of sectoral approaches building on the Cement Sustainability Initiative," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 1246-1256, September.
    4. Frédéric Branger & Jean-Pierre Ponssard & Oliver Sartor & Misato Sato, 2015. "EU ETS, Free Allocations, and Activity Level Thresholds: The Devil Lies in the Details," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(3), pages 401-437.
    5. Allevi, E. & Conejo, A.J. & Oggioni, G. & Riccardi, R. & Ruiz, C., 2018. "Evaluating the strategic behavior of cement producers: An equilibrium problem with equilibrium constraints," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(2), pages 717-731.
    6. Jean-Pierre Ponssard & Catherine Thomas, 2010. "Capacity Investment under Demand Uncertainty. An Empirical Study of the US Cement Industry, 1994-2006," CESifo Working Paper Series 3166, CESifo.
    7. Pegels, Anna, 2016. "Taxing carbon as an instrument of green industrial policy in developing countries," IDOS Discussion Papers 23/2016, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    8. Guy Meunier & Jean‐Pierre Ponssard & Catherine Thomas, 2016. "Capacity Investment under Demand Uncertainty: The Role of Imports in the U.S. Cement Industry," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 455-486, April.
    9. E. Allevi & G. Oggioni & R. Riccardi & M. Rocco, 2017. "An equilibrium model for the cement sector: EU-ETS analysis with power contracts," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 255(1), pages 63-93, August.
    10. Mohamed Amine Boutabba & Sandrine Lardic, 2017. "EU Emissions Trading Scheme, competitiveness and carbon leakage: new evidence from cement and steel industries," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 255(1), pages 47-61, August.
    11. Elisabetta Allevi & Giorgia Oggioni & Rossana Riccardi & Marco Rocco, 2013. "A spatial competitive analysis: the carbon leakage effect on the cement industry under the European Emissions Trading Scheme," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 899, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael Jakob & Jan Christoph Steckel & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2014. "Consumption- Versus Production-Based Emission Policies," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 297-318, October.
    2. Christian Beermann, 2015. "Climate Policy and the Intertemporal Supply of Fossil Resources," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 62.
    3. David F. Drake, 2018. "Carbon Tariffs: Effects in Settings with Technology Choice and Foreign Production Cost Advantage," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 20(4), pages 667-686, October.
    4. Böhringer, Christoph & Rosendahl, Knut Einar & Storrøsten, Halvor Briseid, 2017. "Robust policies to mitigate carbon leakage," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 35-46.
    5. Courbage, Christophe & Rey, Béatrice & Treich, Nicolas, 2013. "Prevention and precaution," TSE Working Papers 13-445, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    6. Kathy Baylis & Don Fullerton & Daniel H. Karney, 2014. "Negative Leakage," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 51-73.
    7. Salanié, François & Treich, Nicolas, 2009. "Option Value and Flexibility: A General Theorem with Applications," TSE Working Papers 09-002, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    8. Valentina Bosetti & Enrica De Cian, 2013. "A Good Opening: The Key to Make the Most of Unilateral Climate Action," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 56(2), pages 255-276, October.
    9. Rahel Aichele, 2013. "Trade, Climate Policy and Carbon Leakage - Theory and Empirical Evidence," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 49.
    10. Frédéric Branger & Misato Sato, 2017. "Solving the clinker dilemma with hybrid output-based allocation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(3), pages 483-501, February.
    11. Zhang, Zhong Xiang, 2012. "Competitiveness and Leakage Concerns and Border Carbon Adjustments," International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics, now publishers, vol. 6(3), pages 225-287, December.
    12. Elliott, Joshua & Fullerton, Don, 2014. "Can a unilateral carbon tax reduce emissions elsewhere?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 6-21.
    13. van der Werf, Edwin & Di Maria, Corrado, 2012. "Imperfect Environmental Policy and Polluting Emissions: The Green Paradox and Beyond," International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics, now publishers, vol. 6(2), pages 153-194, March.
    14. LANGE Andreas & TREICH Nicolas, 2007. "Uncertainty, Learning and Ambiguity in Economic Models on Climate Policy: Some Classical Results and New Directions," LERNA Working Papers 07.16.237, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
    15. Guy Meunier & Jean‐Pierre Ponssard & Catherine Thomas, 2016. "Capacity Investment under Demand Uncertainty: The Role of Imports in the U.S. Cement Industry," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 455-486, April.
    16. Wu, Libo & Zhou, Ying & Qian, Haoqi, 2022. "Global actions under the Paris agreement: Tracing the carbon leakage flow and pursuing countermeasures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    17. Li, Aijun & Du, Nan & Wei, Qian, 2014. "The cross-country implications of alternative climate policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 155-163.
    18. Nicole A. MATHYS & Jaime DE MELO, 2010. "Trade and Climate Change: The Challenges Ahead," Working Papers P14, FERDI.
    19. Attanasi, Giuseppe Marco & Montesano, Aldo, 2010. "Testing Value vs Waiting Value in Environmental Decisions under Uncertainty," TSE Working Papers 10-154, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    20. Halvor Briseid Storrøsten & Christoph Böhringer & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 2015. "Smart hedging against carbon leakage," Discussion Papers 822, Statistics Norway, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Carbon leakage; Demand fluctuations; Capacity decisions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:resene:v:36:y:2014:i:2:p:436-454. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505569 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505569 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.