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EU ETS, Free Allocations and Activity Level Thresholds. The devil lies in the details

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  • Frédéric Branger

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, AgroParisTech)

  • Jean-Pierre Ponssard

    (X-DEP-ECO - Département d'Économie de l'École Polytechnique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris)

  • Oliver Sartor

    (IDDRI - Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris)

  • Misato Sato

    (LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science)

Abstract

This paper investigates incentives for firms to increase output above the activity level thresholds (ALTs) in order to obtain more free allowances in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. While ALTs were introduced in order to reduce excess free allocation to low-activity installations, for installations operating below the threshold, the financial gain from increasing output to reach the threshold may outweigh the costs. Using installation level data for 246 clinker plants, we estimate the effect of ALTs on output decisions. The ALTs induced 5.8Mt of excess clinker production in 2012 (4% of total EU output), which corresponds to 5.2Mt of excess CO2 emissions (over 5% of total sector emissions). As intended, ALTs do reduce overallocation (by 6.6million allowances) relative to a scenario without ALTs, but an alternative output based allocation would further reduce overallocation by 39.5million allowances (29% of total cement sector free allocation). Firms responded disproportionately to ALTs in countries with low demand, especially in Spain and Greece. The excess clinker output lead to increased EU clinker and cement exports, production shifting between plants and also an increase in clinker content of cement thus reducing the carbon efficiency of cement production.

Suggested Citation

  • Frédéric Branger & Jean-Pierre Ponssard & Oliver Sartor & Misato Sato, 2014. "EU ETS, Free Allocations and Activity Level Thresholds. The devil lies in the details," CIRED Working Papers hal-01072736, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:ciredw:hal-01072736
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01072736
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Garnadt, Niklas & Grimm, Veronika & Reuter, Wolf Heinrich, 2020. "Carbon adjustment mechanisms: Empirics, design and caveats," Working Papers 11/2020, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    9. Basaglia, Piero & Isaksen, Elisabeth & Sato, Misato, 2024. "Carbon pricing, compensation and competitiveness: lessons from UK manufacturing," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 122364, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Woerdman Edwin & Nentjes Andries, 2019. "Emissions Trading Hybrids: The Case of the EU ETS," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-32, March.
    11. Vera Zipperer & Misato Sato & Karsten Neuhoff, 2017. "Benchmarks for Emissions Trading – General Principles for Emissions Scope," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1712, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    12. Meunier, Guy & Montero, Juan-Pablo & Ponssard, Jean-Pierre, 2018. "Output-based allocations in pollution markets with uncertainty and self-selection," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 832-851.
    13. Jakob, Michael, 2021. "Climate policy and international trade – A critical appraisal of the literature," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    14. Verde, Stefano F. & Graf, Christoph & Jong, Thijs, 2019. "Installation entries and exits in the EU ETS: patterns and the delay effect of closure provisions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 508-524.
    15. Meunier, Guy & Montero, Juan-Pablo & Ponssard, Jean-Pierre, 2017. "Using output-based allocations to manage volatility and leakage in pollution markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(S1), pages 57-65.
    16. Dorman,Peter, 2022. "Alligators in the Arctic and How to Avoid Them," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781316516270, September.
    17. Michael A. Mehling, 2023. "Supply-side offset crediting to manage climate policy spillover effects," Working Papers EPRG2313, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    18. Simona Bigerna & Maria Chiara D’Errico & Paolo Polinori, 2022. "Sustainable Power Generation in Europe: A Panel Data Analysis of the Effects of Market and Environmental Regulations," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 83(2), pages 445-479, October.
    19. Cludius, Johanna & de Bruyn, Sander & Schumacher, Katja & Vergeer, Robert, 2020. "Ex-post investigation of cost pass-through in the EU ETS - an analysis for six industry sectors," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    20. Mehling, M. A., 2023. "Supply-Side Crediting to Manage Climate Policy Spillover Effects," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2345, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    21. Sean Healy & Katja Schumacher & Wolfgang Eichhammer, 2018. "Analysis of Carbon Leakage under Phase III of the EU Emissions Trading System: Trading Patterns in the Cement and Aluminium Sectors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-25, May.
    22. Maria-Eugenia Sanin & Sylvain Sourisseau, 2019. "Pervasive EUAs free allocation: the case of the steel industry," Documents de recherche 19-06, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Activity level thresholds; EU ETS; carbon trading; free allowance allocations; cement;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • L23 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Organization of Production
    • L61 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Metals and Metal Products; Cement; Glass; Ceramics

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