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On the empirical content of carbon leakage criteria in the EU emissions trading scheme

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  • Martin, Ralf
  • Muuls, Mirabelle
  • de Preux, Laure B.
  • Wagner, Ulrich J.

Abstract

The EU Emissions Trading Scheme continues to exempt industries deemed at risk of carbon leakage from permit auctions. Carbon leakage risk is established based on the carbon intensity and trade exposure of each 4-digit industry. Using a novel measure of carbon leakage risk obtained in interviews with almost 400 managers at regulated firms in six countries, we show that carbon intensity is strongly correlated with leakage risk whereas overall trade exposure is not. In spite of this, most exemptions from auctioning are granted to industries with high trade exposure to developed and less developed countries. Our analysis suggests two ways of tightening the exemption criteria without increasing relocation risk among non-exempt industries. The first one is to exempt trade exposed industries only if they are also carbon intensive. The second one is to consider exposure to trade only with less developed countries. By modifying the carbon leakage criteria along these lines, European governments could raise additional revenue from permit auctions of up to €3. billion per year, based on a permit price of €30.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin, Ralf & Muuls, Mirabelle & de Preux, Laure B. & Wagner, Ulrich J., 2014. "On the empirical content of carbon leakage criteria in the EU emissions trading scheme," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 57538, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:57538
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/57538/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Frédéric Branger & Misato Sato, 2017. "Solving the clinker dilemma with hybrid output-based allocation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(3), pages 483-501, February.
    2. K. Scott & H. Daly & J. Barrett & N. Strachan, 2016. "National climate policy implications of mitigating embodied energy system emissions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 136(2), pages 325-338, May.
    3. Blasiak, Robert, 2015. "Balloon effects reshaping global fisheries," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 18-20.
    4. Ralf Martin & Mirabelle Mu?ls & Laure B. de Preux & Ulrich J. Wagner, 2014. "Industry Compensation under Relocation Risk: A Firm-Level Analysis of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2482-2508, August.
    5. Hans Gersbach & Marie-Catherine Riekhof, 2017. "Technology Treaties and Climate Change," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 17/268, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    6. Julia Blasch & Nina Boogen & Nilkanth Kumar & Massimo Filippini, 2017. "The role of energy and investment literacy for residential electricity demand and end-use efficiency," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 17/269, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    7. Joltreau, Eugénie & Sommerfeld, Katrin, 2016. "Why does emissions trading under the EU ETS not affect firms' competitiveness? Empirical findings from the literature," ZEW Discussion Papers 16-062, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    8. Francesco Crespi & Claudia Ghisetti & Francesco Quatraro, 2015. "Environmental and innovation policies for the evolution of green technologies: a survey and a test," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 5(2), pages 343-370, December.
    9. Petrick, Sebastian & Wagner, Ulrich J., 2014. "The impact of carbon trading on industry: Evidence from German manufacturing firms," Kiel Working Papers 1912, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    10. Simone Borghesi & Chiara Franco & Giovanni Marin, 2016. "Outward Foreign Direct Investments Patterns of Italian Firms in the EU ETS," SEEDS Working Papers 0116, SEEDS, Sustainability Environmental Economics and Dynamics Studies, revised Jan 2016.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    carbon leakage; industrial relocation; emissions trading; EU ETS; permit allocation; firm data;

    JEL classification:

    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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