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Border Carbon Ajustment in Europe and Trade Retaliation: What would be the Cost for European Union?

Listed author(s):
  • Jean Fouré

    (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique)

  • Houssein Guimbard

    (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique)

  • Stéphanie Monjon

    (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, LEDa-CGEMP, Université Paris-Dauphine - Université Paris-Dauphine, PSL Research University)

Unilateral climate policy, such as carbon pricing, represents an additional cost to the economy, especially to energy-intensive industrial sectors, as well as those exposed to international competition. A border carbon adjustment (BCA) is often presented as an attractive policy option for countries that wish to go ahead without waiting for a global climate agreement. We used the computable general equilibrium model MIRAGE to simulate the impact of the introduction of a BCA on imports of energy-intensive products in EU and EFTA countries and to evaluate the exports their main trade partners would lose. Given that a BCA is a trade measure, it might cause disputes at the World Trade Organization (WTO). If the BCA is considered illegal, the losses suffered by some partners may justify trade retaliations. At that point, it would be likely that prohibitive retaliatory tariffs target sensitive products in the EU, which are often related to the European agricultural sector. These trade measures would limit the drop in production in the energy-intensive and trade-exposed (EITE) sectors, but at the expense of the other sectors. Nevertheless, neither the BCA nor retaliation would have sizeable impacts on real income or GDP in the EU or on the retaliators, while leading to a small decrease in global emissions.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number hal-01291370.

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Date of creation: 2016
Publication status: Published in Energy economics, 2016, 54, <10.1016/j.eneco.2015.11.021>
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01291370
DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2015.11.021
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01291370
Contact details of provider: Web page: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Houssein Guimbard & Sébastien Jean & Mondher Mimouni & Xavier Pichot, 2012. "MAcMap-HS6 2007, an Exhaustive and Consistent Measure of Applied Protection in 2007," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 130, pages 99-122.
  2. Böhringer, Christoph & Balistreri, Edward J. & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2012. "The role of border carbon adjustment in unilateral climate policy: Overview of an Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF 29)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S2), pages 97-110.
  3. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2013. "Modelling the world economy at the 2050 horizon," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 21(4), pages 617-654, October.
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  6. Monjon, Stéphanie & Quirion, Philippe, 2010. "How to design a border adjustment for the European Union Emissions Trading System?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5199-5207, September.
  7. Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré & Maria Priscila Ramos, 2013. "MIRAGE-e: A General Equilibrium Long-term Path of the World Economy," Working Papers 2013-39, CEPII research center.
  8. Paul Veenendaal & Ton Manders, 2008. "Border tax adjustment and the EU-ETS, a quantitative assessment," CPB Document 171, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
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  10. Löschel, Andreas & Alexeeva-Talebi, Victoria & Mennel, Tim, 2008. "Climate Policy and the Problem of Competitiveness: Border Tax Adjustments or Integrated Emission Trading?," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-061, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  11. repec:dau:papers:123456789/10122 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Bown, Chad P. & Ruta, Michele, 2008. "The economics of permissible WTO retaliation," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2008-04, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
  13. Yvan Decreux & Hugo Valin, 2007. "MIRAGE, Updated Version of the Model for Trade Policy Analysis: Focus on Agriculture and Dynamics," Working Papers 2007-15, CEPII research center.
  14. repec:zbw:hohpro:346 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Stéphanie Monjon & Philippe Quirion, 2011. "A border adjustment for the EU ETS: reconciling WTO rules and capacity to tackle carbon leakage," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 1212-1225, September.
  16. Kuik, Onno & Hofkes, Marjan, 2010. "Border adjustment for European emissions trading: Competitiveness and carbon leakage," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1741-1748, April.
  17. Peter Holmes & Tom Reilly & Jim Rollo, 2011. "Border carbon adjustments and the potential for protectionism," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 883-900, March.
  18. Rob Dellink & Gregory Briner & Christa Clapp, 2011. "The Copenhagen Accord/Cancún Agreements Emission Pledges For 2020: Exploring Economic And Environmental Impacts," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(01), pages 53-78.
  19. Scott Barrett, 2011. "Rethinking Climate Change Governance and Its Relationship to the World Trading System," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(11), pages 1863-1882, November.
  20. Roland Ismer & Karsten Neuhoff, 2007. "Border tax adjustment: a feasible way to support stringent emission trading," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 137-164, October.
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