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Carbon Leakage and Capacity-Based Allocations. Is the EU right?

  • Guy Meunier

    (Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - CNRS : UMR7176 - Polytechnique - X, ALISS - Alimentation et sciences sociales - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA) : UR1303)

  • Jean-Pierre Ponssard

    (Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - CNRS : UMR7176 - Polytechnique - X)

  • Philippe Quirion

    ()

    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech)

Competitiveness and carbon leakage are major concerns for the design of CO2 emissions permits markets. In absence of a global carbon tax and of border carbon adjustments, output based allocation is a third best solution and is actually implemented (Australia, California, New Zealand). The EU has followed a diff erent route; free allowances are allocated to existing or new capacities in proportion to a benchmark independent of actual production. This paper compares these two schemes and shows that the optimal one is actually a combination of both schemes, or output based allocation alone if uncertainty is limited. A key assumption of our analysis is that the short term import pressure depends both on the existing capacities and the level of demand, which is typical in capital intensive and internationally traded sectors. A calibration of the model is used to discuss the EU scheme for the cement sector in the third phase of the EU-ETS (2013-2020). This allows for a quanti cation of various policies in terms of welfare, investment, production, fi rms profi ts, public revenues and leakage.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series CIRED Working Papers with number hal-00672907.

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Date of creation: 22 Feb 2012
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Handle: RePEc:hal:ciredw:hal-00672907
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  1. Rolf Golombek & Sverre A.C. Kittelsen & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 2011. "Price and welfare effects of emission quota allocation," Discussion Papers 661, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  2. Monjon, Stéphanie & Quirion, Philippe, 2011. "Addressing leakage in the EU ETS: Border adjustment or output-based allocation?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(11), pages 1957-1971, September.
  3. Meunier, Guy & Ponssard, Jean-Pierre, 2014. "Capacity decisions with demand fluctuations and carbon leakage," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 436-454.
  4. Fischer, Carolyn & Fox, Alan K., 2012. "Comparing policies to combat emissions leakage: Border carbon adjustments versus rebates," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 199-216.
  5. Ralf Martin & Mirabelle Muuls & Laure B. de Preux & Ulrich J. Wagner, 2014. "Industry compensation under relocation risk: a firm-level analysis of the EU emissions trading scheme," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 59312, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  6. Philippe Quirion, 2009. "Historic versus output-based allocation of GHG tradable allowances: a comparison," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 575-592, November.
  7. Damien Demailly & Philippe Quirion, 2006. "CO2 abatement, competitiveness and leakage in the European cement industry under the EU ETS: Grandfathering vs. output-based allocation," Post-Print halshs-00639327, HAL.
  8. Fischer, Carolyn & Fox, Alan K., 2009. "Comparing Policies to Combat Emissions Leakage: Border Tax Adjustments versus Rebates," Discussion Papers dp-09-02, Resources For the Future.
  9. Lars-Hendrik R�ller & Frode Steen, 2006. "On the Workings of a Cartel: Evidence from the Norwegian Cement Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 321-338, March.
  10. Monjon, Stéphanie & Quirion, Philippe, 2010. "How to design a border adjustment for the European Union Emissions Trading System ?," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/7348, Paris Dauphine University.
  11. Bovenberg, A. Lans & Goulder, Lawrence H. & Jacobsen, Mark R., 2008. "Costs of alternative environmental policy instruments in the presence of industry compensation requirements," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(5-6), pages 1236-1253, June.
  12. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00866444 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Lars Mathiesen and Ottar Maestad, 2004. "Climate Policy and the Steel Industry: Achieving Global Emission Reductions by an Incomplete Climate Agreement," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 91-114.
  14. Karsten Neuhoff & Kim Keats Martinez & Misato Sato, 2006. "Allocation, incentives and distortions: the impact of EU ETS emissions allowance allocations to the electricity sector," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 73-91, January.
  15. Philippe Quirion & Damien Demailly, 2006. "Leakage from climate policies and border tax adjustment:lessons from a geographic model of the cement industry," CIRED Working Papers halshs-00009337, HAL.
  16. Sijm, J. & Neuhoff, K. & Chen, Y., 2006. "CO2 cost pass through and windfall profits in the power sector," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0639, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  17. Christina Hood, 2010. "Reviewing Existing and Proposed Emissions Trading Systems," IEA Energy Papers 2010/13, OECD Publishing.
  18. De Perthuis, Christian & Convery, Frank J. & Ellerman, Denny, 2010. "Pricing carbon : the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/10174, Paris Dauphine University.
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